Is the US Running Out of Tungsten? Price Up Nearly 20% in One Week
The situation in the tungsten market continues to escalate. “Reuters” recently reported that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are depleting US stocks of the strategic metal at an ever-increasing rate. Tungsten is not only indispensable for ammunition and other military equipment, but also for the aerospace and electronics industries, as well as mechanical engineering – for example, in high-performance tools, semiconductors, and heat-resistant specialty components. In addition, Chinese export controls are exacerbating the shortage on the global market. Last Friday, up to USD 2,800 was paid per metric ton unit (MTU) – equivalent to 10 kg – of the rare raw material at the Rotterdam trading hub. This was nearly 20% more than a week earlier and roughly 700% more than at the start of 2025.“Never Seen a Market as Tight as the Current One for Tungsten”
“Bloomberg” also paints a picture of an extremely tight market. Buyers worldwide are searching for alternative sources of supply, while inventories are dwindling and military demand continues to rise. “In my twelve years in the commodities industry, during which I have dealt with many strange and fascinating metals, I have never experienced a market as tight as the current one for tungsten – except perhaps for lithium in 2021,” George Heppel, vice president of commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, told “Bloomberg”. He continues: “This isn’t like lithium, where there was a huge pipeline of projects ready to come online.” “Bloomberg” also notes that the US has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, making the country structurally vulnerable. It is precisely in this environment that Almonty, as a Western producer, is increasingly coming into focus. Almonty CEO Lewis Black told “Bloomberg” that US authorities had already contacted the company regarding short-term supply availability. Nearly half of South Korea’s production is shipped to Pennsylvania for further processing. Regarding price trends, the Almonty CEO emphasized that no one really knows how high the price could rise, as there has been no free market to date. Historically, China subsidized domestic tungsten producers for decades to drive Western competitors out and effectively create a monopoly. This landscape, however, is now beginning to shift, creating new opportunities for non-Chinese producers like Almonty.Analysts Confirm Price Target of USD 25.80
Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Cantor Fitzgerald recently confirmed its “Buy” recommendation for Almonty stock. Analysts estimate the fair value at USD 25.80 or CAD 36.00. The stock is currently trading on the NASDAQ at around USD 16. Analysts argue that Almonty, as a China-free tungsten producer, is a rare find and can rise to become an increasingly important strategic supplier to the West in a market with a structural supply deficit. Almonty currently operates a tungsten mine in Portugal, is ramping up what will soon be the largest mine outside of China, and plans to bring a mine in the US state of Montana online later this year. Analysts view the completion of Phase 1 commissioning of the Sangdong mine in South Korea as the decisive turning point. Almonty is transitioning from a project developer to a producer with massive scaling potential. While the smaller Panasqueira mine in Portugal—which is being expanded—generated revenue of CAD 32.5 million in 2025, revenue is expected to surge to CAD 747.7 million in 2026 with the ramp-up of Sangdong. Analysts expect EBITDA to reach an impressive CAD 488.1 million, translating to an EBITDA margin of over 50%. Tungsten production is projected to jump from 58,000 MTU to 267,537 MTU, while all-in sustaining costs are expected to drop from USD 345 to USD 266 per MTU. This is because the mine in South Korea was built when prices were at USD 300 or USD 400 per MTU, and the company had to make a profit at those levels. Today, as mentioned, prices are above USD 2,500. In the coming years, Almonty’s revenue and profits are expected to continue rising sharply. For 2027, Cantor is already projecting CAD 1.3 billion in revenue and CAD 844.3 million in EBITDA. Net profit is expected to be CAD 832.4 million, and earnings per share CAD 4. The stock is currently trading at around CAD 20, putting the 2027 P/E ratio at 5, according to analyst estimates. This seems anything but expensive. Starting in 2028, Cantor expects Almonty to reach an annual production of approximately 800,000 metric tons. Additional margin potential could come from a nano-tungsten oxide plant in Korea, as well as from the adjacent molybdenum deposit. https://youtu.be/yKWEA8oMgKQ?si=85DcJ3tJHg-rlPx4Conclusion: Valuation Appears Attractive
The tungsten market is undergoing a historic transformation. And Almonty appears to be the big winner. With an expected earnings per share of CAD 4 next year, the stock remains attractively priced. At the same time, there are no signs of a correction in the tungsten price.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company. In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies. In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships. For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest. The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such. The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user. The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.
