Analysts See a Revaluation – Price Targets for Almonty Rise with the Tungsten Supercycle
The analysts’ opinion is not without reason. After all, they apply mathematical models in their analyses and provide model-driven valuation frameworks. It is therefore worth studying their reasoning more closely.
Cantor Fitzgerald expects CAD 36
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald confirm their “Buy” recommendation for Almonty Industries Inc. and set a price target of CAD 36.00 or USD 25.80, which corresponds to an expected upside potential of around 45%. Crucial to this valuation is the combination of a 1.5x NAV multiple and a 15x EBITDA multiple for 2027, which deliberately values the company above the industry average. The analysts argue that this premium is justified by the company’s strategic role as a non-Chinese supplier of a critical metal. At the same time, they see additional price drivers in rising tungsten prices as well as potential government off-take agreements. Overall, the model signals that the market has not yet fully priced in the long-term cash flow leverage of production.
GBC Research Raises Target to CAD 28.60
GBC analysts have also recently raised their valuation significantly and have derived a new price target of CAD 28.60 or EUR 17.71 per share. This is based on an updated discounted cash flow model that assumes a long-term tungsten price of USD 1,500 per MTU, thereby implying structurally higher cash flows. The analysts see a fundamental shift in the market, triggered by export restrictions, rising defense demand, and limited new mining projects outside of China. At the same time, the modeling is deliberately conservative, as only a portion of the existing resources is included in the valuation. This methodology implies additional long-term valuation reserves that could become apparent as production continues to rise.
Valuation Indicators: Multiples Show Strong Earnings Growth Through 2027
A key driver of the price targets is the expected earnings momentum, which is clearly reflected in the valuation metrics. According to forecasts, the expected EV/EBITDA multiple is set to decline from around 24.8 in 2026 to approximately 10.1 in 2027, indicating a massive increase in earnings alongside a stable valuation. At the same time, experts anticipate an EBITDA jump to as much as CAD 844 million in 2027, following a period during which the company was still in an investment phase. This development shows that the current market value is still heavily focused on future production and could improve significantly as capacity utilization increases. For investors, this means the valuation discount is less of a risk and more of a typical transitional phase preceding a cash flow breakthrough.
IIF host Lyndsay Malchuk in conversation with Christopher Ecclestone of Hallgarten & Company about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East conflict, and the expected effects on the supply chains of Western industries.
Of particular interest to investors is the valuation’s sensitivity to commodity prices and multiples. According to model calculations, the price target could rise significantly above current analyst estimates if tungsten prices rise or the sector is revalued. For example, the scenario analysis shows that even moderate changes in valuation multiples or price assumptions can lead to significant price increases. This leverage effect is typical for commodity companies in the ramp-up phase of new large-scale projects.
The relevant experts can be consulted in the investor section of the website:
https://almonty.com/investors/analyst-coverage/
Conclusion: Technical Consolidation at a High Level
Stock markets repeatedly exhibit the same patterns. There are stocks that remain stagnant for weeks, characterized by lifeless daily price action and little investor interest. Then there are stocks like Almonty Industries, which, driven by their growing prominence, have surged into the spotlight across news flows. This is no coincidence, as the commodity stock has gained an extraordinary 2,000% in just 18 months. The reason is straightforward: the opening of the largest tungsten mine outside China in South Korea coincided with a sharp rise in tungsten prices—from USD 350 to over USD 2,800. For those unfamiliar with the concept of “strategic scarcity”, this development illustrates it clearly. Following a correction of nearly 35%, the stock may now present a renewed entry opportunity for risk-aware investors.
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