Buckle Up for a Short Squeeze: Could Almonty and HelloFresh Follow SpaceX’s Rocket Launch?

SpaceX: The Short Squeeze as a Case Study

Hardly any other stock market newcomer has ever been the subject of such heated debate as SpaceX. Following its Nasdaq debut in June, the short interest rose within a few weeks from around 23 million to, at times, over 250 million shorted shares—which corresponded to about one-third of the freely tradable float and even exceeded the size of the bets against Tesla. A key argument put forward by short sellers was the lock-up period that expired on August 6, during which insiders were prohibited from selling their shares. This could result in approximately 911.5 million additional shares entering the market.

CEO Elon Musk publicly addressed the speculation on the X platform and warned, in essence, that short sellers placing long-term bets against the aerospace company would have little chance of success. This confidence was bolstered by the first quarterly results since the IPO. Revenue rose 92% year-over-year to USD 7.8 billion, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased by 191% to USD 3.5 billion, while the net loss nearly halved to USD 541 million. This was well above analysts’ expectations. The reaction on the stock market was correspondingly strong. The day after the results were released, the share price jumped by more than 15%; over the course of the week, the gain totaled over 22%. Short sellers were forced to cover their positions, which further fueled the price rise—a classic short squeeze.

Institutional investors also seized the opportunity. Star investor Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, who had repeatedly increased her stake in SpaceX since its IPO, purchased another 182,000 shares on August 5, thereby reaffirming her long-term positive outlook on the company. Analysts confirm this view: Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, and JPMorgan renewed their “Buy” recommendations with price targets ranging from USD 220 to USD 240. At the current price of USD 137.90 (~EUR 120.00), this represents upside potential of up to 75%. Other experts, however, are talking about sky-high prices. Additional lock-up periods expire through December, and with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of over 40, the valuation remains ambitious.

Almonty: The West’s Beacon of Hope

A similar situation is unfolding at Almonty Industries. The short interest climbed to around 19 million shares—or about 6.6% of the free float—in mid-July, a jump of nearly 40% from the previous month. The US-based tungsten producer is set to release its second-quarter 2026 report soon. Various financial platforms cite August 17 as the release date, while others expect the figures to be released as early as later today. The analyst consensus forecasts revenue of between USD 35 million and USD 50 million and earnings per share of USD 0.05 to USD 0.10. The average price target is around USD 25.00, which is a good 80% above the current level of USD 13.70 (~EUR 12.10). If the figures come in strong as expected, the short positions built up recently are likely to generate significant upward pressure.

Unlike with SpaceX, such a move in Almonty would be fundamentally justified. Tungsten remains scarce and expensive, China continues to control more than 80% of global production, and governments are increasingly willing to pay for an independent supply. The Sangdong project is seen as the Western world’s great hope for securing a reliable supply of this heavy metal, which is indispensable for armor-piercing ammunition and rocket engines due to its extreme heat resistance. Unlike Elon Musk’s space project, the high short positions are not driven by a fundamental lack of confidence in the company’s operations, but primarily by technical factors. Institutional buyers of the USD 800 million convertible senior notes offering issued in June often hedge their positions through parallel short sales of the stock, which automatically increases the short ratio. Added to this is the voluntary delisting from the Toronto and Sydney stock exchanges in favor of a focus on the Nasdaq, which caused additional price volatility in the short term.

Operationally, Almonty is in better shape than ever before. Since the end of June, tungsten concentrate has been produced on a large scale for the first time at the processing plant of the Sangdong Mine in South Korea, marking the completion of the transition from project developer to producer. A purchase agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, extended to 21 years, secures an annual revenue potential of approximately USD 490 million at current prices. Production in Portugal, which has been ongoing for years, underscores this momentum. Revenue from the Panasqueira Mine jumped 221% to USD 25.4 million in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss of USD 2.4 million to a profit of USD 6.1 million—a result of the high price of ammonium paratungstate, which tripled to USD 3,000 per metric ton unit (MTU; 10 kg) in the first half of the year alone. Speculation about strong results is further fueled by an interview that IIF host Lyndsay Malchuk recently conducted with Almonty CEO Lewis Black. Although the interview makes no mention of the upcoming quarterly report, rarely has a manager come across as so relaxed. Unlike Musk, Black did not say a word about the short sellers, but instead focused on the company’s operational progress. This suggests more than just a short-term rebound.

https://youtu.be/H89AmF0rjfA

HelloFresh: The Food Delivery Service For Short Sellers

The German stock market also has a prominent candidate for a short squeeze scenario: HelloFresh. Hardly any other MDAX stock is under such intense scrutiny from professional short sellers. Several hedge funds have gradually increased their reportable net short positions in recent weeks. Marshall Wace holds the largest reported position, most recently at around 1.9%, while SIH Partners stands at about 1.2%. Added to this are bets on falling prices from Tages Capital, Tudor Capital Europe, and Capital Fund Management. Overall, HelloFresh is thus one of the most heavily shorted stocks on the German market.

Fundamentally, the meal-kit delivery company is undergoing a restructuring phase. Fewer discounts, fewer short-term order incentives, and a greater focus on customers with higher-value shopping baskets. In the first quarter, revenue fell by 7.7% on a currency-adjusted basis to EUR 1.675 billion, while the average order value rose by 4.2%. The ready-to-eat business recently posted a 6.9% decline, although double-digit growth was already evident outside the US. For the full year, revenue is still expected to decline by between 3% and 6%, with EBITDA adjusted for non-operating costs ranging between EUR 375 and 425 million.

The half-year results are scheduled to be released on August 13. So tomorrow will determine the direction the Berlin-based company takes. Even a further slowdown in the decline in orders, progress at the US subsidiary Factor, and confirmation of the annual targets could be enough to put pressure on short sellers and trigger a short-covering rally. However, unlike Almonty, HelloFresh currently lacks a clear operational catalyst such as the start of production, and its revenue base continues to shrink. A sustainable turnaround is certainly possible after the five-year decline from EUR 97.50 to just EUR 3.40, but by no means certain.

Conclusion: Where Will the Next Supernova Ignite?

What these three stocks have in common is the unusually high level of attention from short sellers shortly before key dates. With SpaceX, the pattern has already been confirmed: strong numbers met an overextended short position and triggered a powerful rebound. In the case of Almonty, both the start of production in Sangdong and the structural tungsten shortage suggest that a similar scenario could repeat itself—with the difference that there is a sound fundamental story behind it here. HelloFresh provides the third test case on Thursday, though with a significantly more uncertain outcome, as the operational turnaround has not yet been proven. Should it succeed, the stock would be a bargain with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio between 5 and 6 based on estimates for the coming years—but only then. Even Almonty, the significantly safer bet, is by no means expensive with an estimated 2027 P/E ratio of about 10, given the company’s excellent growth prospects and political significance. By comparison, even under optimistic assumptions, SpaceX has an astronomical price-to-earnings multiple of over 100.

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