Strategy: Turning Point or Precipice?
Strategy’s stock performance raises questions about its positioning. After the company sold off significant Bitcoin holdings for the first time between June and August to service liabilities, a remarkable turnaround followed. The company has purchased bitcoins again for the first time in two months at an average price of USD 80,318 per coin and is confident that the price has bottomed out. Technical indicators support this view: Bitcoin broke through all key moving averages, while the MACD has turned bullish. The correlation with the Nasdaq remains at a multi-year low of 0.18, indicating increasing decoupling. The CLARITY Act, which is up for a vote on September 15, could act as a catalyst for institutional inflows.
Nevertheless, the balance sheet trends reveal a double-edged sword. While liabilities decreased from USD 8.2 billion to USD 6.7 billion, the capital structure remains challenging. The annual fixed-cost burden of USD 1.7 billion for interest and preferred dividends contrasts with an annual gross profit of approximately USD 326 million from the software business. The August data shows that only 10.3% of the offering proceeds went toward Bitcoin purchases. The majority was used to service the preferred shares. The number of shares increased by 8.5% in August, while Bitcoin holdings rose by only 0.35%. Shareholders are experiencing dilution. A sustainable model therefore requires continuous increases in the Bitcoin price.
The most favorable scenario is based on the leverage provided by the capital structure. As Bitcoin prices rise, equity benefits disproportionately, while liabilities remain fixed. The recent increase in the buyback program for STRC preferred stock to USD 2 billion shows that management is looking to optimize the cost structure. The USD 6.69 billion in cash reserves provides a liquidity buffer. The key uncertainty remains the Bitcoin cycle. Historical patterns point to a potential bottoming out in the fourth quarter of midterm election years. Investors betting on a continuation of the recovery will find MSTR to be a vehicle with above-average potential, but also elevated risk.
Desert Gold: Moving Closer to Gold Production
Nestled between the operating areas of industry heavyweights such as Barrick Mining and Endeavour Mining lies a property that, upon closer inspection, reveals considerable potential. With the SMSZ project in Mali, Desert Gold controls a 440 km² concession area located directly within one of Africa’s most prolific gold regions. The geology supports the project, with a total mineral resource of approximately 1.22 million ounces identified to date and four mineralized corridors extending up to 25 km in strike length. What makes the project truly interesting is the extension of the mineralization into depth. At the very least, since the Malian government approved the B2Gold Menankoto deposit, it should be clear that the region’s interim problems have been resolved. This is also reflected in the 30% increase in gold production in Mali during the first half of the year.
The plan to establish its own small-scale production operation is a smart move. Desert Gold has presented a preliminary economic assessment for an open-pit mine, which is set to begin with a 240-metric-ton-per-day processing plant. Financing is secured, technical acceptance of the gravity separation plant in China has been completed, and the equipment is on its way and should arrive soon. Commissioning is just around the corner. The expected cash flow will not be distributed; instead, it will be invested in further exploration. This creates a self-reinforcing effect, as it will enable further drilling, which should further increase resources and boost the company’s value.
In addition to its flagship project in Mali, Desert Gold has acquired an option on the 297 km² Tiegba Gold project in Côte d’Ivoire. An anomaly measuring approximately 4 x 2 km, identified by the previous owner, has been verified on-site. Initial drilling is planned for this year. Should economic mineralization be confirmed, this would fundamentally change investors’ perception of the company. The company would evolve from a pure Mali play into a diversified West African player. Surrounded by major mining operators and located in a region with intense M&A activity, Desert Gold could find itself in an extremely interesting position.
ExxonMobil: Between Geopolitics and Operational Strength
The renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to grip the oil markets. Military clashes between the US and Iran are curbing the flow of oil shipments. The US is also feeling the impact, as its strategic oil reserves have fallen to 293 million barrels—a 40-year low. Brent is trading at over USD 100 per barrel, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an average supply decline of 4.3 million barrels per day by 2026. There are currently no signs of a return to normalcy, as shipping traffic through the dangerous waters remains well below pre-war levels.
ExxonMobil is benefiting significantly from this environment operationally. In the second quarter, revenue rose 42% to USD 116 billion, and net income doubled to USD 14.5 billion. The integrated model offset the production loss in the Middle East with strong refining margins and record production in the Permian Basin. Free cash flow reached USD 17.2 billion, of which USD 9.4 billion was returned to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. The dividend yield currently stands at around 2.5%.
The company is already planning for the future and is underpinning this with its lithium initiative in Arkansas. Through direct extraction from brine, Exxon is applying its drilling expertise to the battery value chain and aims to achieve significant lithium production by 2030. This fits seamlessly with the goal of increasing the share of low-cost “Advantage Assets” in upstream production to around 65% by 2030. Although this will not yet be reflected in cash flow in 2026, it reduces the long-term oil price risk. As long as the conflict with Iran persists, business will continue to boom.
The three stores of value—Bitcoin, gold, and commodities—present varying opportunities and risks in 2026. Strategy remains a leveraged bet on Bitcoin with significant dilution risk, which will only work if Bitcoin’s price continues to rise. Desert Gold is on the verge of starting its own production and could gain significant value if drilling is successful in Côte d’Ivoire. ExxonMobil is reaping the maximum operational benefits from the Iran conflict, while the lithium initiative complements the portfolio in the long term.
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