From a bird’s eye view, the hallmark of a high-conviction long-term investment is a market in a generational tailwind. The renewable energy market, estimated to grow from US$1.51 trillion in 2024 to US$4.86 trillion in 2033, with trillions in additional investments needed to meet 2050 net-zero emissions goals, certainly fits the bill.
When it comes to renewable energy’s proliferation to date, we find that, from both a near-term and long-term perspective, the world is dangerously off track from meaningful emissions reduction. According to figures from the United Nations, current climate plans in place for the 195 parties to the Paris Agreement will result in only a 2.6 per cent decrease in global emissions by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, falling well short of the 43 per cent drop required to keep net-zero within reach.
That said, a global shift away from fossil fuels to renewables is underway, with capacity growing by 415 per cent from 2000-2023, according to Visual Capitalist, driven by the need to triple this growth rate by 2030 to remain aligned with the Paris Agreement and keep climate change at bay.
Over the near-term, the renewable energy industry is being led by commodities best suited to reduce emissions over the coming decades, such as biofuels, which rely on combustion but benefit from existing infrastructure, enabling rapid adoption, and can repurpose organic waste on a net-zero basis contingent on technological efficiency.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), bioenergy consumption increased by about 4 per cent per year between 2010 and 2023 and is trending higher, slated to account for an astounding 95 per cent of renewable fuels growth through 2030.
Looking farther out into the future, renewables will likely be driven by combustion-free energy sources, such as wind, hydro, solar and hydrogen, each commanding a market valued in the hundreds of billions today, supported by unmatched emissions profiles and increasingly efficient technology, but lacking the infrastructure required to compete with combustion-based counterparts and better fulfill the world’s rising demand for energy.
It’s against this backdrop that companies are being incentivized to innovate, accelerate the renewable energy transition and pave the way for future generations to enjoy the lifestyle and industrial benefits of a planet that can sustainably absorb the emissions it produces.
Introducing Cielo Waste Solutions
A prospective name taking an ingenious approach to renewable energy is Cielo Waste Solutions (TSXV:CMC; OTCQB:CWSFF), a technology company in the early stage of transforming waste streams into in-demand products that both heal the environment and offer the potential for significant shareholder value, which is only compounded by the stock’s 63.33 per cent loss year-over-year.
This article is disseminated in consultation with Cielo Waste Solutions Corp. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice.
The company’s inaugural facility, known as Project Nexus, with additional locations under consideration in multiple jurisdictions, will process scrap railway ties and other biogenic waste streams into market-ready green hydrogen and renewable natural gas (RNG), with the underlying technology able to pivot between the commodities based on consumer demand.
The facility will rely on a commercially proven process to efficiently gasify the waste, which the company will then methanate into RNG, with a side-stream of green hydrogen with a low carbon intensity score. Compared to legacy bio-digesters used to produce RNG, including from landfills or feed lots, and standard electrolysis to extract hydrogen molecules from water, Cielo Waste’s chosen technology promises to be lower-cost and more robust in terms of output.
Railway ties, for their part, represent an unmet environmental need, with the Railway Tie Association reporting that between 20-22 million ties are replaced each year in Canada and the United States with only 3 to 4 million ending up in a landfill which produces methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more conducive to global warming compared to carbon dioxide. This, coupled with the millions of waste railway ties littering the sidings all across Canada and the USA that aren’t allowed in landfills in many jurisdictions, creates the perfect low-cost or no-cost feedstock for Cielo.
What this means is that Cielo’s initial facility could reduce Canadian railway tie waste significantly, while not impacting food or agricultural output, vaulting the company into newfound market visibility as a key contributor to the renewable energy transition. Additionally, this could lead the company to capacity and services expansions to address the ballooning global issue of wood-based waste, as evidenced by only 30 per cent of the millions of tonnes generated each year being recycled.
Project Nexus, planned for first production in 2028, and underpinned by ongoing funding, offtake and feedstock discussions, will be designed to convert scrap railway ties and other biogenic waste streams into renewable energy with minimal waste, aligning with the proliferation of environmental regulations across the world and allowing Cielo to potentially benefit from various provincial and federal government grants. These include:
- The CleanBC Industry Fund, dedicated to reducing emissions through innovation and strategic planning.
- The Strategic Innovation Fund, dedicated to large-scale projects to keep Canada at the forefront of technology, industry and clean energy.
- B.C.’s Clean Energy Major Projects Office, which offers project management for ventures including but not limited to hydrogen, biofuels, carbon capture and energy storage.
- B.C.’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits program, which incentivizes low-carbon fuel companies, awarding Parkland Corp. more than C$240 million in 2022 to increase renewable diesel production at its Burnaby refinery, as well as C$100 million to Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure in 2021 to advance its renewable diesel and hydrogen refinery in Prince George.
To properly contextualize Cielo’s value proposition, let’s examine the demand drivers behind its two target commodities, and how they position the company to positively impact global decarbonization efforts imminently and for generations to come.
Renewable natural gas
Producing RNG from Project Nexus provides exposure to one of the energy transition’s key pillars, displacing geological natural gas and improving air quality by diverting methane emitted from a diverse set of waste sources, including livestock farms, landfills, food production and wastewater treatment plants, into fuel increasingly used for heating, cooking, electricity and transportation.
The global RNG market is expected to grow from US$14.03 billion in 2024 to US$24.23 billion by 2031, with projects slated to nearly triple in Europe and more than double in the U.S. by 2030, according to ING, and more than double in Canada from 2023 to 2026, according to the Canadian Gas Association, granting Cielo a strong tailwind to leverage as it ramps up to production and delivers a sustainable environmental outcome.
The Railway Tie Association estimates that creosote-treated ties, accounting for the majority of available supply, each contain between 7,500-10,000 British thermal units (BTU) of fuel content per pound (lbs). Multiplied by 2.5 million railway ties, which can weigh more than 200 lbs (90 kg), this amounts to 3.75 trillion BTUs of fuel content on the low end and 5 trillion on the high end.
When we multiply this BTU range by the renewable natural gas spot price of US$29 per million BTUs cited by Deloitte in 2024, we can estimate potential revenue of US$108.7 million to US$145 million should Project Nexus focus exclusively on RNG, which is more than enough to substantiate a commitment to shareholder value and encourage a stock price re-rating.
Green hydrogen
Should green hydrogen, representing less than 1 per cent of the global market, deliver on the IEA’s 12x growth expectations from 2023 to 2030, this would only account for about one tenth of the growth required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
However, concerted efforts are underway to accelerate adoption, with about 60 governmental green hydrogen policies in place across the world, and countries accounting for more than 84 per cent of energy-related CO2 emissions announcing almost US$100 billion in public funds in support over the year ended October 2024.
This deep-pocketed interest in green hydrogen stems from its emission-free nature, generating only water when consumed in a fuel cell, compared to 8,887 grams CO2 per gallon of gasoline, according to data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This is in addition to:
- Hydrogen’s ability to be produced from a wide variety of sources, including natural gas, diesel, renewable liquid fuels, gasified coal or gasified biomass, making it a versatile decarbonizing force.
- Hydrogen’s multi-sector demand, with use-cases spanning refining, fertilizers, power generation, transport, steel, maritime and aviation.
That said, with about 95 per cent of hydrogen produced today coming from geological natural gas, the incentive for cleaner production methods has never been higher, positioning Cielo Waste to scale its new technology into an increasing share of a more than US$5 billion clean hydrogen market, which is expected to surpass US$14 billion in value by 2032. McKinsey sees demand growing substantially from there, reaching 125-585 million tonnes per year by 2050, with a tonne of hydrogen expected to surpass US$3,800 in Q2 2025.
The IEA estimates hydrogen production through gasification to yield about 100 kilograms per tonne of dry biomass. At a midpoint price of about US$7 per kilogram, as cited by Bloomberg NEF in 2024, Cielo’s initial Project Nexus in Northern B.C. could generate in excess of US$100 million in revenue from hydrogen alone before carbon credits are factored in. This figure is clearly divorced from the company’s current market capitalization, suggesting the magnitude of the upside available to investors today.
Cielo is ramping up regulatory, grant application and pre-front-end engineering work at Project Nexus and expects to share new milestones in the coming weeks, having recently closed a second and final C$1,121,250 financing tranche, which included an investment from a corporation owned by chief executive officer (CEO), Ryan C. Jackson, who we’ll meet in the next section.
Leadership driving the vision
At the center of Cielo Waste Solutions’ strategy is Ryan Jackson, the company’s CEO. Jackson’s leadership has been the catalyst for the company’s pivot into renewable natural gas and hydrogen, guiding the launch of Project Nexus and the development of the NEXUS Platform. His focus is on building a scalable model that not only solves pressing waste challenges but also positions Cielo as a key contributor to Canada’s clean energy transition and broader global markets.
Supported by a board and management team with expertise spanning governance, renewable energy, project execution and capital markets, Jackson is steering Cielo through its most ambitious phase yet — moving from early-stage development into commercial operations with a foundation designed for growth.
Management
- Ryan Jackson, CEO, brings three decades of business leadership across energy, technology and investment. As CEO, he has repositioned Cielo to focus on renewable natural gas and hydrogen, securing early-stage funding pathways, advancing government relations and overseeing the launch of Project Nexus in Northern British Columbia. His vision for the NEXUS Platform provides Cielo with a blueprint to expand across Canada and into international markets.
Board
- Sheila A. Leggett, Director, brings extensive expertise in governance and sustainability, serving as chair of the ISO committee responsible for international environmental management standards. Her background in resource management and advisory roles adds depth to Cielo’s oversight and ESG strategy.
- Larry Schafran, Director, is an experienced investor in disruptive technologies with a history of supporting high-growth companies through strategic transitions. His board experience and financial acumen provide Cielo with valuable guidance in structuring growth capital and strategic partnerships.
- The Honourable Peter MacKay, Director, built a distinguished career in federal government, including roles as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of National Defence and Minister of Justice, granting Cielo direct access to unparalleled policy insight and strategic networks. His involvement strengthens Cielo’s credibility in navigating the intersection of industry, government and economic development.
A data-driven growth story underpricing its long-term potential
Despite Cielo Waste’s billion-dollar growth runway, the stock has fallen out of favor, giving back 63.33 per cent year-over-year, last trading at C$0.055, driven by investors’ overreaction to the company pivoting from renewable diesel to hydrogen production to capitalize on stronger tailwinds and a more attractive grant funding landscape. For context, U.S. renewable diesel production fell in January 2025 to its lowest level in a decade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with global production growth slowing considerably over recent years in favor of projects with a more robust bioeconomic impact, such as hydrogen and carbon capture.
The stock’s irrational discount, deeply undercutting the company’s pathway to renewables leadership, makes an investment today a data-driven option on potentially transformational returns, supposing Cielo Waste delivers on its green flags of proven leadership, a sustainable focus and value-added technology, garnering market share in one strategic waste stream after the next.
While in the earliest stage of this journey, the company’s elegant approach to unmet environmental needs, marked by a less than three-year timeline to market, positions it to strategically scale, responsive to RNG and hydrogen demand, granting it flexibility on its path to margin improvement and eventual profitability.
Look for development milestones at Cielo Waste’s first facility, including funding, offtake and feedstock agreements, to increase market recognition and turn sentiment around, building momentum towards initial revenue generation.
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