An Invisible Bottleneck
For decades, the West had settled into a comfortable routine. China supplied tungsten at prices that made its own mines unprofitable. The last commercial mining operation in the US ended in 2015. Europe looked on. But the model is crumbling.
Since February 2025, Beijing has required export licenses for strategic minerals, followed in January 2026 by an expanded list of dual-use goods. As a result, tungsten prices surged by more than 500%. A price of at times over USD 3,300 per metric ton unit (MTU) for ammonium paratungstate is no longer a temporary spike; it signals a structural shift. Since mid-April, the average price has remained consistently above USD 3,000 per MTU.
There is more to this than just Chinese trade policy. Domestic production is declining, while domestic demand is rising. Beijing is now a net importer of tungsten concentrates. The export controls, therefore, do not appear to be an act of arrogance but rather a shield protecting its own struggling production capacity.
At the same time, demand is growing across the board. The defence industry needs tungsten for armour-piercing ammunition, rocket nozzles, and precision components. The semiconductor industry uses the metal as tungsten hexafluoride to bond chip layers, particularly in 3D NAND manufacturing. And the civilian industry uses it in carbide tools found in every machine shop. Several megatrends are converging.
The Mine That Changes Everything
Almonty Industries is benefiting precisely from this complex situation. With the Sangdong mine in South Korea, the company owns one of the largest tungsten deposits outside of China. Commercial production began there at the end of 2025, and the first expansion phase officially went into operation in March 2026.
The scale is impressive. Phase 1 processes approximately 640,000 tons of ore per year, corresponding to approximately 230,000 MTU of tungsten concentrate. At 0.51% tungsten trioxide, the ore grade is about three times higher than the global average. This represents a decisive cost advantage. A second phase is planned for 2027, which is expected to double capacity to 1.2 million tons of ore and 460,000 MTU of concentrate.
The company invested over CAD 100 million in the construction of new underground tunnels and a modern processing plant from Metso Outotec, using flotation rather than gravity separation. The advantage of flotation is that it is more predictable and promises a faster ramp-up. The plant was planned based on a tungsten price of USD 300 per MTU; the current market price is currently around 10 times that amount.
A Changing Financial Picture
The first quarter of 2026 marks a turning point. Revenue rose 221% year-over-year to CAD 25.4 million. Operating cash flow turned from a deficit of CAD 4.4 million to a surplus of CAD 9.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA improved from a deficit of CAD 2.4 million to a surplus of CAD 6.1 million.
The bottom line still shows a net loss of CAD 5.3 million. However, this is largely attributable to non-cash valuation effects, as the stock rose from CAD 12 to over CAD 20 in the first quarter, making derivatives and convertible bonds more expensive. Operationally, the company has achieved a turnaround.
The balance sheet is solid. At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents stood at CAD 259.9 million. Two capital measures in 2025—an IPO on the Nasdaq raising over USD 90 million and a further placement raising over USD 129 million—have provided management with financial flexibility. The company is well-positioned for further growth.
The picture is rounded out by the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, which has delivered stable cash flows for years, as well as by the Gentung project in Montana, which is scheduled to begin production as early as 2026. In South Korea, Almonty is also developing a molybdenum project—without additional regulatory hurdles, as management emphasizes.
When Rockets And Chips Compete For The Same Metal
The tungsten market is small, illiquid, and politically charged. This makes it susceptible to extreme swings, but also particularly attractive to suppliers with secured production. Almonty benefits in several ways from Chinese export restrictions, rising defence demand amid the Iran conflict, and the semiconductor industry boom.
Additionally, a regulatory shift is taking effect. Starting in 2027, the US Department of Defence will require that tungsten-containing components come from non-Chinese sources. This opens a strategic window for producers outside China’s sphere of influence.
Analysts expect a structurally higher price floor. Bank of America raised its forecasts for 2026 to an average of USD 2,903 per MTU and for 2027 to USD 2,700. Previous estimates were significantly lower. Accordingly, experts revised their earnings forecasts for Almonty upward. Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is now expected to be just under CAD 600 million.
The Institutional Breakthrough
One event is likely to further boost the stock in the coming weeks. On June 29, 2026, Almonty Industries will be added to the Russell indices, both the broad Russell 3000 and the large-cap Russell 1000. The inclusion is based on the preliminary list from May 22.
As a result, index funds and ETFs tracking these benchmarks will need to buy additional shares. Estimates suggest that the rebalancing alone could generate net demand for approximately 13 million shares. That is three times the average daily trading volume.
Research firms have already adjusted their price targets. Cantor Fitzgerald sees potential up to USD 25.80, based on a blended approach combining net asset value and an EBITDA multiple. Bank of America cites USD 23, while Oppenheimer reaffirms its “Outperform” rating. DA Davidson and B. Riley are in a similar range at USD 25 and USD 23, respectively. Analysts are citing an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x to 8.0x for 2026 and 2027.
The stock is currently trading at around USD 19.96.
The stage is set for success at Almonty Industries. The Sangdong Mine is operational, demand for tungsten is reaching historic highs, and inclusion in US indices opens the door to institutional capital. Operational milestones have been achieved, the balance sheet is solid, and the market is structurally undersupplied. Yes, the ramp-up requires patience and commodity prices fluctuate—that is true of any growth story. But the fundamentals speak for themselves. Those who bet early on building an independent Western supply chain will benefit from one of the most exciting commodity trends of this decade. The trajectory is unmistakably upward.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a “Transaction”). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
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