Almonty Industries: Hope Turns into Production
At Almonty Industries, the phase that investors have been waiting for for years is finally beginning. The processing plant at the Sangdong Mine in South Korea is now operational. Since June, the ore previously mined has been processed into marketable tungsten concentrate. This marks the project’s transition from capital-intensive mine construction to revenue-generating production.
At the start, approximately 139,700 metric tons of ore with an average grade of about 0.25% tungsten trioxide were stockpiled. This is sufficient for roughly 2.6 months of the initial production phase. The initially lower ore grades are part of the ramp-up process. As the plant, blending, and recovery rates are optimized, higher-grade material is expected to follow. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald expect Almonty to significantly scale its total annual tungsten production from a baseline of approximately 58,000 MTU at its Panasqueira Mine in Portugal to a consolidated company-wide output of more than 300,000 MTU in 2026. This explosive growth is driven by the commissioning of the flagship Sangdong Mine in South Korea. Total corporate production is projected to increase further to around 640,000 MTU in 2027, positioning Almonty as one of the world’s leading non-Chinese tungsten suppliers.
Enormous Price Leverage
The fact that Sangdong is coming online right now could hardly be more opportune. Tungsten prices were at record levels in early July. Analysts at D.A. Davidson estimated a realized price of USD 2,993 per MTU for the second quarter. For 2027, the experts are taking a more cautious approach, estimating USD 1,750—more than 40% below the spot price at that time. Although the estimate already factors in a significant price decline according to the latest study, D.A. Davidson expects revenue of just under USD 287 million and adjusted EBITDA of just over USD 237 million for the current year. By 2027, this is expected to translate into USD 804 million in revenue and USD 698 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). These figures demonstrate Almonty’s enormous growth potential, but they also clearly highlight the business model’s dependence on tungsten prices, production volume, and yield.
Sangdong Is Just the Beginning
In the second production phase, annual tungsten production in Sangdong is set to double to approximately 460,000 MTU. Much of the infrastructure can be reused. In addition, Almonty is planning a tungsten oxide plant, which could begin production in 2028. This would be particularly valuable strategically, as it would allow Almonty to move beyond mere mining and delve deeper into processing. Added to this is the already approved molybdenum project. A purchase agreement is in place with the Korean SeAH Group for the entire output, including a minimum price of USD 19 per pound and no price cap. Production is projected to begin in late 2027 or early 2028. The proximity to the existing Sangdong infrastructure should facilitate development.
Panasqueira is also expected to deliver higher ore grades starting in mid-2027 as a result of the planned expansion. The Spanish projects and the Gentung mine in Montana are barely factored into the current estimates. This creates additional upside potential without the investment story depending on it.
Strategic Importance Is Rising
Tungsten is no longer just an industrial metal. Hardness, density, and heat resistance are in high demand, particularly in electronics, aviation, and armour-piercing ammunition and missiles. According to Almonty’s estimates, defense applications currently account for 10 to 12% of tungsten demand; within the coming year, that share could rise to more than 20%. At the same time, Western defense contractors are expanding capacity, and governments are replenishing strategic reserves.
A potential collaboration with US government agencies adds to the upside potential. Analysts at D.A. Davidson view the strategic framework as an important short-term catalyst. They do not expect government ownership, but rather a structure to coordinate Western tungsten supply. This is not yet a confirmed agreement. A concrete announcement could therefore have a significant impact on the share price.
Cantor Fitzgerald confirmed a “Buy” rating with a price target of USD 25.50 following the start of processing. D.A. Davidson raised its target from USD 25 to USD 33 following a meeting with CEO Lewis Black. The key factors were progress at Sangdong, higher price assumptions, and the additional projects. All in all, Almonty remains a speculative stock with high upside potential, offering risk-tolerant investors the most exciting and direct investment in Western tungsten supply.
Sandvik: The Quality Stock with Its Own Supply Chain
Investors seeking a conservative alternative to Almonty will find it in Sandvik. The Swedish industrial conglomerate is one of the leading suppliers of mining equipment, cutting tools, and automated manufacturing solutions and thus benefits indirectly from the commodities boom. A gold price of more than USD 4,000 per troy ounce not only makes existing mines highly profitable; it also makes harder-to-access deposits and previously unprofitable projects attractive again. If operators want to expand their production or develop new mines, they need drills, crushers, dump trucks, and automated production systems—all of which Sandvik can supply. The Swedish company has also owned the Austrian firm Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG since 2009. This company covers the entire process from ore mining through smelting to recycling and, according to the group, operates the only fully integrated tungsten smelter outside of Asia and Russia. In a tight market, this integration is worth its weight in gold.
High Commodity Prices and Full Order Books
In the first quarter alone, organic order intake rose by 23% to 36.8 billion Swedish kronor. Adjusted revenue grew by 15%, and adjusted EBITA by 6% to 6.14 billion kronor. The margin reached 20% despite massive currency headwinds. In addition to the mining business, the Machining division performed particularly well. There, order intake rose organically by 28%, as the tungsten shortage further fueled the powder and cutting-tool businesses. The second-quarter report on July 17 will reveal how sustainable this momentum is. High commodity prices and full order books continue to provide tailwinds. Risks include a normalization of tungsten-related inventory purchases and negative currency effects estimated at around 500 million kronor. If Sandvik nevertheless maintains its adjusted margin at around 20%, that would be another strong signal.
Sandvik is not purely a tungsten play. That is precisely its advantage. Mining equipment, spare parts, maintenance, automation, and software provide a broad earnings base. Recurring service revenue mitigates cyclicality. Last year alone, spare parts, maintenance, and repairs accounted for 44% of consolidated revenue. For investors who believe in the scarcity of raw materials but do not want to endure every price fluctuation of a mining stock, Sandvik remains an attractive quality stock.
Airbus: The Well-Known Beneficiary of Strong Demand
Airbus is the best-known stock of the trio—and at the same time the most indirect bet on tungsten. Europe’s leading aircraft manufacturer benefits primarily from growing demand in the aerospace sector and rising defense budgets. Tungsten is used in these sectors due to its hardness, durability, and heat resistance. However, the strongest case for Airbus remains its core commercial business. Airlines worldwide are modernizing their fleets to reduce fuel costs and handle rising passenger numbers.
From early January through late May, the company received more than 800 orders for commercial aircraft. However, Airbus got off to a slow start to the year due to a shortage of engines. In the first quarter, revenue fell by 7% to EUR 12.65 billion, and adjusted EBIT halved to EUR 300 million. Above all, a shortage of Pratt & Whitney engines slowed the ramp-up of A320 production.
In the second quarter, however, Airbus made significant ground, delivering 237 commercial aircraft—39% more than in the same period last year. Accordingly, revenue and earnings are also expected to have risen sharply. With the half-year results due at the end of July, the focus is now on the profitability of the commercial division, free cash flow, and the annual target of 870 deliveries. CEO Guillaume Faury has so far stood by this forecast. Reuters reported, however, that internally, the number of 900 aircraft is already being discussed.
After 351 deliveries in the first half of the year, Airbus still needs to deliver 521 aircraft by the end of the year—an average of 86 aircraft per month. This seems challenging but feasible, as Airbus traditionally delivers a large portion of its aircraft in the second half of the year. mwb research also considers the target achievable, provided the higher production pace seen in May and June continues.
The aerospace and defense business provides additional growth potential. Among other things, Airbus is the lead supplier for Eutelsat OneWeb and was a key supplier for earlier phases of the German Armed Forces’ satellite system, SatcomBw. Together with OHB and Rheinmetall, the group apparently intends to compete for the next phase of the program, with an estimated volume of EUR 8 to 10 billion. Airbus thus represents both civilian growth and Europe’s pursuit of greater strategic independence. The order book is brimming with 9,253 commercial aircraft, with a calculated value of more than EUR 600 billion, securing production for more than 10 years. The problem is not demand. Airbus simply needs to build and deliver the ordered aircraft quickly enough.
Many Analysts Are Optimistic
Analysts remain largely positive. Of the 25 banks and research firms, 20 recommend buying the stock; however, the average price target of EUR 214 offers only limited upside potential. With a P/E ratio of 24 for 2027, the stock is no longer a bargain. Nevertheless, Bank of America has added Airbus to its favourites list for the third quarter. It expects strong quarterly results and, for the first time, a more concrete medium-term profit range for the commercial aircraft business. Such an outlook could shift investors’ focus more strongly from monthly delivery figures to long-term earnings potential. The bank believes an operating profit of around EUR 10 billion is possible in the commercial division over the medium term. By comparison, in 2025 the entire group generated an adjusted EBIT of EUR 7.13 billion.
Full order books, rising production figures, and a more stable supply chain point to further upside potential for the stock. The decisive test will come with the half-year results. If Airbus confirms its full-year forecast and also delivers a convincing medium-term earnings outlook, the stock could receive its next boost.
Almonty, Sandvik, and Airbus play different roles in the story surrounding critical raw materials. Almonty is the favourite for risk-tolerant investors and offers speculative exposure to raw materials. If the Sangdong ramp-up is successful, the stock offers the greatest upside potential of the three. Those who prefer a bit more peace of mind should bet on Sandvik. The Swedish company combines tungsten scarcity with a profitable industrial business, its own mine, processing, and recycling operations. Airbus is the established major corporation benefiting from rising demand in civil aviation, aerospace, and defense. Airbus serves as a well-known underlying asset that lends scope and stability to the critical raw materials narrative. However, the stock has limited upside potential.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a “Transaction”). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.
The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.
Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.
The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.
The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.
Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.