innoscripta Plummets 57%: What is Behind the Raids?
A single trading day last week severely shook confidence in the stock of innoscripta SE. Last Thursday, October 1, the stock fell about 57% to around EUR 37.3, then dropped further on Friday to EUR 32.45 heading into the weekend. The trigger was an ad hoc announcement regarding searches at companies within the group. This raises a key question: How resilient is the business surrounding the research allowance?
According to the company, investigators searched business premises based on two orders issued by the Schwäbisch Gmünd Local Court on August 3 and September 15. The background to this is a criminal tax proceeding regarding suspicion of aiding and abetting the obtaining of unjustified tax benefits in connection with customers’ research allowance applications. According to innoscripta’s preliminary understanding, the specific incidents involve possible misconduct by individual employees in connection with certain client mandates. The company is reviewing the facts and cooperating with the authorities. A final assessment of the allegations and possible financial consequences is not currently possible.
Research grants are central to the company’s business. innoscripta supports companies in documenting their research and development activities as well as in preparing grant applications. The Clusterix platform organizes projects, data, and workflows. This is precisely why the investigations touch on a sensitive area: clients must be able to rely on transparent documentation and proper processes. According to the company, the decision to submit an application, as well as the responsibility for providing accurate and complete information, lies with the respective clients. How the individual tasks were assigned is likely relevant to the investigation.
Operationally, innoscripta had most recently painted a much more positive picture. In the first half of 2026, revenue rose by 43% to EUR 63.1 million. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes increased by 49% to EUR 36.4 million, with the corresponding margin reaching 57.7%. The number of customers grew to more than 2,900. In August, management confirmed annual targets of at least EUR 140 million in revenue and at least EUR 80 million in EBIT, assuming a steady pace of application submissions and approvals.
Investors must therefore evaluate two questions separately. First, there is the scope of the affected mandates and any potential legal or financial consequences. Second, there is the economic question of whether customer relationships, new contracts, or the processing of applications could be adversely affected. The sharp drop in the share price, however, indicates that the market is already pricing in a significant loss of confidence. Neither the outcome of the investigations nor a specific amount of damages can be inferred from the magnitude of the decline.
From a technical analysis perspective, the crash has wiped out the entire recovery since spring 2026. The stock has fallen significantly below its previous lows in the range of approximately EUR 64 to 68. At the current price of EUR 32.45, there is no established support level in the price history to date; the next significant support level does not appear until around EUR 15.00. A rapid rebound would therefore not yet prove that a solid bottom has formed; this would be confirmed only if the resistance level at EUR 49.00 can be recaptured. A sustainable revaluation requires verifiable information about the investigations and their implications for ongoing business operations. Under these circumstances, the historically high margin alone is no longer sufficient as a basis for valuation.
Volatus Aerospace: Scaling Up in the NATO Drone Market
The geopolitical turning point has drastically increased demand for unmanned aerial systems, driving the market to an estimated USD 160 billion by 2034. In this fast-growing sector, the Canadian company Volatus Aerospace is taking on an increasingly strategic role. After qualifying for all segments of the Canadian NATO forces’ procurement initiative, the company demonstrated the reliability of its V-Cortex™ control software during test missions. Crucially, the drones could be controlled without the Global Positioning System (GPS).
This subsequently led to a 5-year framework agreement with the Department of Defence for an initial 100 reconnaissance drones, with an option to deliver up to 4,900 additional units. This total framework of up to CAD 25 million (approximately EUR 16.5 million) marks Volatus’ transition from test and validation phases to robust production orders. With the official opening of the 53,000-square-foot production and system integration centre in Mirabel at the end of September 2026, the company laid the industrial foundation for these orders.
Located in Montreal’s aerospace cluster, the facility not only manufactures drone docking stations but also assembles the V-Series, thereby strengthening the company’s robust manufacturing capacity for NATO allies. Meanwhile, the latest quarterly figures show revenue growth of 49.5% to CAD 8.42 million, reflecting strong operational leverage. Robust equipment sales, up 38%, and the services business, up 59%, drove the results. With cash and cash equivalents of CAD 59.2 million, as reported in the latest quarterly report, the scaling up of production and the expansion of the operations centre in Vaughan are solidly funded from a balance sheet perspective.
On the financial markets, the operational transformation is gradually being reflected in a revaluation, although analysts see further upside potential in the medium term. Desjardins Group recently initiated coverage with a “Buy” recommendation and a price target of CAD 0.90, while the market consensus estimates a price of CAD 0.97 and forecasts that the company will reach breakeven in adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation by 2028.
With 725.84 million shares outstanding, the stock is trading at CAD 0.55, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately CAD 400 million. Technically, the stock is oscillating between the 50-day moving average at CAD 0.54 and the 200-day moving average at CAD 0.62, with support around CAD 0.44 providing a floor, while a sustained breakout above CAD 0.70 would pave the way toward CAD 1.00.
Suedzucker Falls 7%: Is the Recovery Stalling Despite a Better Forecast?
First, a better forecast drew attention; a few days later, a setback followed. Südzucker AG shares fell about 7% over the course of the day last Thursday, October 1. The sell-off continued on Friday, and the stock closed at EUR 11.86 heading into the weekend. This came despite the Mannheim-based group having reported a strong increase in earnings on Monday. For investors, the question is how much of the recovery had already been priced in and which improvements are sustainable.
The preliminary figures for the second fiscal quarter, from June 1 to August 31, show clear progress. Consolidated operating earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation (EBITDA) rose from EUR 93 to 168 million, up about 81%. According to the company, the main contributions came from CropEnergies and the specialty business. For the biofuel subsidiary, higher ethanol prices were the primary driver, while in the specialty segment, higher sales volumes boosted performance.
The full-year forecast was also adjusted. Südzucker now expects revenue of EUR 8.3 to 8.7 billion for 2026/27, up from the previous range of EUR 8.1 to 8.5 billion. The operating EBITDA range was narrowed from EUR 480 to 680 million to EUR 540 to 680 million. This represents an improvement at the lower end, while the upper limit remains unchanged. The midpoint of the earnings range rises mathematically from EUR 580 to 610 million, or by a good 5%. The increase is thus more moderate than the headline suggests.
The decline in the share price cannot therefore be readily explained as a reaction to poor operating news. So far, no new, clearly documented company-specific cause explains the sell-off. Profit-taking after the recent rise is a possible explanation, but it is not confirmed. The market may welcome a higher lower bound for earnings while simultaneously doubting that the more favorable conditions will persist over several quarters.
For the next valuation, the quality of the earnings growth will be the key factor. Higher ethanol prices can improve earnings, but the company cannot lock them in permanently. Increased sales of specialty products offer another angle, provided the additional volumes are sold at attractive margins. Investors should also note that EBITDA is neither net income nor freely available cash flow. Investments, financing costs, and capital tied up all play a role in determining what ultimately remains of operating progress. This development cannot yet be fully assessed based on the preliminary announcement alone.
From a technical analysis perspective, Südzucker remains above several longer-term moving averages despite the setback. On the upside, the recent highs around EUR 13.2 are in focus. A drop below the lower zone around EUR 11.16 would further weigh on the recovery seen over the past nine months. The full half-year report is due on October 8. At that time, investors can examine segment results, the balance sheet, and cash flows more closely. These figures must show how robust the operational improvement behind the recent forecast adjustment really is.
At innoscripta SE, a raid related to alleged complicity in unjustified research subsidies triggered a 57% plunge in the share price and raised significant doubts about the business and its valuation. Volatus Aerospace is benefiting from rising NATO demand, new drone orders, growing revenue, and investments in its own production capacity.
Südzucker significantly increased its operating EBITDA and raised its forecast, but profit-taking and doubts about sustainability are currently weighing on the stock.
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