Fed Rate-Hike Risk: Will Vonovia Face Further Pressure?
The US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as September. Following Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole, investors have significantly adjusted their expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rise on September 16 now stands at 65.9%. A week ago, it was just 41.4%. Only 34.1% still expect interest rates to remain unchanged. The shift is even more pronounced when looking ahead to December. Just 10.8% still expect the current target range of 3.50 to 3.75% to remain in place by then. Around 39% anticipate one rate hike, just over 40% expect two, and just under 10% even expect three increases. The futures market is therefore pricing in at least one interest rate rise by the end of the year with a probability of around 89%.
The CME FedWatch Tool is not based on analyst surveys. It derives the probabilities from the prices of highly liquid 30-day Fed Funds futures, thereby showing which interest rate scenarios traders are pricing in with real capital. Tens of thousands of these contracts are traded daily in the relevant markets, with open interest standing at several hundred thousand. However, the FedWatch tool does not provide a definitive forecast; rather, it offers a snapshot of current market expectations.
Warsh himself did not announce any interest rate move. However, his comments were “hawkish”. PCE inflation stands at 3.7% year-on-year and 4.1% over the past six months. At the same time, the unemployment rate is 4.1%, meaning that, according to Warsh, the labour market remains roughly consistent with full employment. Business investment is also growing at around 9%, more than half of which is likely attributable to the expansion of AI infrastructure. Should inflation not move clearly and quickly enough towards 2%, the Fed has more “work to do”.
Other markets are also confirming the new interest rate expectations. On Polymarket, a major digital forecasting market, the September meeting is currently priced at around a 57% probability of a 25-basis-point rise and a 42% probability of rates remaining unchanged. The trading volume exceeds USD 72 million. This reassessment is also evident in US government bonds: futures on five- and ten-year Treasuries (tickers: ZF and ZN) are under pressure. When bond prices fall, yields rise accordingly. The ten-year Treasury yield reached around 4.798% yesterday, its highest level since January 2025. For European property shares, interest rate pressure is also coming from the ECB. It raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points back in June and left them unchanged in July. Ahead of the next decision on September 10, Polymarket puts the probability of a further 25-basis-point hike at around 98%; only around 2% expect no change.
For Vonovia (WKN: A1ML7J | ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1 | Ticker: VNA), it is therefore the combination of factors that is particularly decisive. Higher European key interest rates, rising Bund yields and additional upward pressure from the US tend to make refinancing more expensive and bonds a more attractive investment alternative. If inflation and the economy remain robust, the new global interest-rate bet could become the next headwind for Vonovia and the entire European property sector, which has already come under pressure in recent years.
dynaCERT: The Long Road from Pilot Projects to the Global Market
The Canadian cleantech company dynaCERT (WKN: A1KBAV | ISIN: CA26780A1084 | Ticker: DMJ) is at a crucial juncture in its corporate development. After years in which market participants doubted the timelines and commercial scalability of the HydraGEN™ technology, the new management team, led by CEO Kevin Unrath, is now systematically advancing the commercialization of the products.
The aim is to make the transition from purely technical proof-of-concepts to recurring revenue. In doing so, the company is benefiting from the growing macroeconomic pressure on logistics and industrial firms to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of their existing fleets in a timely manner, in line with strict environmental regulations. At the same time, prices for petroleum products such as diesel, petrol and even kerosene have risen significantly due to the global supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving up logistics costs for every kilometre travelled.
The South-East Asian region, led by Vietnam, is currently establishing itself as a key focal point of this reorientation at dynaCERT. Here, the company is driving forward concrete applications in the logistics, waste management and oil and gas extraction sectors. By equipping heavy-duty vehicle fleets in Hanoi, port container-handling machinery, and industrial vehicles, the technology is demonstrating its broad industrial applicability. At the same time, the company’s own telematics platform, HydraLytica™, provides precise, real-time consumption data, thereby laying the groundwork for the subsequent monetization of the generated CO₂ emission allowances on the global market. The success in Vietnam serves as a strategic reference market for dynaCERT, enabling it to initiate discussions in neighbouring markets such as Cambodia, Indonesia and Japan.
In parallel, dynaCERT is implementing a global sales initiative in the current second half of 2026, focusing on heavy goods transport, port operations and stationary power generation. Rather than relying on traditional trade fair appearances, dynaCERT is focusing on targeted discussions with customers and partners at industry events such as IAA TRANSPORTATION in Hanover, the 24 Heures Camions in Le Mans and TOC Americas in Colombia. With the planned conclusion of this campaign at POWERGEN International in Utah in January 2027, dynaCERT aims to have several initial series production orders in its order book. Management must now demonstrate that the pilot orders generated will lead to a growing number of follow-up orders, that the order book continues to fill up quarter on quarter, and that production capacities in Canada are being utilized to full capacity.
Siemens Energy Falls Nearly 5%: Musk Sparks Uncertainty — Is the Rally at Risk?
Siemens Energy (WKN: ENER6Y | ISIN: DE000ENER6Y0 | Ticker: ENR) shares have been under significant pressure since the start of the week. On Monday, the share price fell by around 5.0% to approximately EUR 142, and yesterday (Tuesday) it dropped a further 1.0% to EUR 140.70. Despite this setback, the share is still up by around 15.8% since the start of the year and, over a twelve-month period, by as much as 55.0%. However, it has now fallen significantly from its 52-week high of EUR 191.66. The market capitalization remains at around EUR 121 billion.
The trigger for the price slide was a series of new statements from Elon Musk. SpaceX apparently intends to start manufacturing turbine blades and so-called vanes for gas turbines in-house. Musk identified precisely these components as a critical bottleneck in the production of new gas turbines. By manufacturing them in-house, SpaceX believes it could accelerate the commissioning of additional gas-fired power station capacity by up to 18 months. At the same time, according to Musk, SpaceX and Tesla are building up production capacity for up to 100 gigawatts of solar power per year. However, natural gas will still be needed as a supplement for several more years.
The news comes at a time when Siemens Energy is focusing on a sector that has recently been one of its biggest growth drivers. In the third financial quarter, turnover rose by 18.5% to EUR 11.45 billion, while profit before exceptional items more than tripled to EUR 1.62 billion. Order intake reached EUR 17.93 billion. Gas Services performed particularly strongly: orders there rose by just under 62% to almost EUR 10 billion. Data centres in the US and customers from the Middle East together accounted for around half of the gas turbine orders.
This is precisely why investors are reacting sensitively to potential changes in the supply chain. The enormous electricity demand from AI data centres has led to a shortage of gas turbines and resulted in long delivery times. If major technology groups begin to produce critical components themselves, this could alleviate some of these bottlenecks in the long term. Following the planned divestment of large parts of “Transformation of Industry”, Siemens Energy itself also intends to focus even more strongly on gas turbines and electricity grids.
However, it would be premature to speak of a direct attack on Siemens Energy’s business model. SpaceX initially plans to manufacture individual components in-house for its own requirements. Siemens Energy develops and supplies complete gas turbines, power station technology, grid infrastructure and long-term maintenance services. “Bloomberg Intelligence” therefore views Musk’s move more as confirmation of just how tight turbine capacity is at present, rather than as an immediate threat to Siemens Energy.
From a technical analysis perspective, however, the picture has deteriorated. At around EUR 141, Siemens Energy shares are now trading below all key moving averages (MA). The 50-day MA stands at around EUR 154, the 100-day MA at EUR 161.67 and the 200-day MA, which is particularly closely watched in the long term, at EUR 149.93. The slide below the 200-day moving average has therefore provided an additional negative technical signal! For investors, the key question now is whether the “Musk shock” is merely triggering short-term profit-taking or whether new competition is actually emerging in the turbine supply chain. Fundamentally, however, demand remains strong in the short and medium term.
Rising key interest rates in Europe are weighing on the refinancing of property group Vonovia and putting further pressure on its share price in the current market environment. Cleantech company dynaCERT is advancing the global commercialization of its emissions-reducing technology to make the crucial leap to recurring revenue. Elon Musk’s new plans to manufacture turbine components in-house are having a noticeable impact on the share price of the energy technology group Siemens Energy, despite fundamentals remaining strong.
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