Almonty Industries: Analysts are bullish, record figures ahead
Almonty produces tungsten concentrate, which downstream processors refine into powders, hard metals and other products. Tungsten is in demand because of its high density and heat resistance. Its applications range from industrial manufacturing to defence. The latest progress is substantial and marks a decisive milestone. In September, the company reported receiving the final operating certificates for processing and crushing facilities, giving the green light for commercial operations. By the end of the period, the company said the first shipment had been dispatched and is expected to be recognised as high-margin revenue just a few weeks later.
The first expansion phase of the Sangdong mine targets a planned ore processing capacity of around 640,000 tonnes annually. Phase II is intended to gradually increase this to up to 1.2 million tonnes annually starting next year. A major customer is Global Tungsten & Powders, part of Austria’s Plansee Group. In July, the partners extended the Sangdong offtake agreement to 21 years from the first delivery. The agreement covers a total of 4.41 million MTU and at least 210,000 MTU annually after ramp-up. The contract covers approximately 90% of planned Phase I production.
The existing Panasqueira mine in Portugal already supplies concentrate. The Gentung project in Montana is also expected to gradually enter production soon. The second-quarter figures are heavily skewed upwards by cash gains from the valuation of derivatives and option instruments and are therefore not meaningful. Revenue amounted to CAD 43.0 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached CAD 17.6 million. The reported net profit of CAD 181.8 million includes CAD 173.1 million in positive valuation effects.
At the half-year mark, Almonty had around CAD 1.23 billion in cash and cash equivalents, largely from the issuance of a USD 800 million convertible senior notes offering with a 2.25% coupon and maturity in 2031. The company is using part of these funds for share buybacks. The shares are currently trading at around CAD 8.30. Analysts believe the stock could more than double over the coming 12 months. Given the strong earnings momentum, the experts expect the 2027 P/E ratio to fall below 7.
Rheinmetall: What do the analysts say?
Rheinmetall is growing strongly; its order books are swelling, yet the group is lowering its full-year guidance. The shares responded with sharp losses and have fallen by around 50% since the start of the year. The crux of the matter is order delays and their impact on revenue, earnings and investor confidence.
For this reason, market participants are now attaching great importance to the Capital Markets Day on November 27. Analysts have already slashed their price targets. The experts expect the group to lower its medium-term guidance for 2030 soon. At a current price of around EUR 860, there nevertheless appears to be upside potential. Berenberg is sceptical with a target of EUR 900, while Citigroup is more optimistic at EUR 1,374.
The recent reduction in operating guidance for the current financial year to a target operating margin of around 18.5% (down from around 19%) and the lower revenue outlook of EUR 13.2 billion (previously: EUR 13.7 to 14.2 billion) sent the shares below the EUR 1,000 mark. The decisive factors are project delays, including the Arminius project and ammunition offtake.
The Arminius Boxer project, with a potential value of more than EUR 12 billion, is coming later than planned. This involves the procurement of up to 1,800 Boxer wheeled armoured vehicles for troop transport and various military missions. The Federal Ministry of Defence is still conducting its review, after which the Bundestag’s Budget Committee must approve the funding. The decision is now not expected until the first quarter of 2027, rather than this year as previously assumed.
Renk: Strategy update in early December to provide fresh impetus for the shares?
The group is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of transmissions and drive solutions for military vehicles, ships and industrial facilities. Renk is firmly established in many platforms. Once integrated, the technology can only be replaced with considerable effort. This retains customers and makes entry more difficult for competitors. The company therefore benefits from original equipment, spare parts business, maintenance and modernisation.
The specialist’s business is performing excellently. In the first nine months of 2026, order intake rose by a third to EUR 1.66 billion. This saw the order backlog rise to a new record high of EUR 7.6 billion. Revenue climbed by 5.8% to EUR 982 million in the reporting period, accompanied by a disproportionately strong increase in operating profit (EBIT) of 12.7% to EUR 158.8 million. For continuing operations, the group expects revenue of around EUR 1.4 billion and adjusted EBIT of EUR 240 to 255 million in the current financial year.
With the acquisition of David Brown Defence completed on November 2 and the agreed sale of the plain bearings business, Renk is optimising its portfolio. On December 8, the company announced a strategy update that investors have been eagerly anticipating. Meanwhile, analysts are optimistic about the stock, which is currently trading at around EUR 36, corresponding to a market capitalisation of EUR 3.6 billion. Experts see average upside potential of just over 60% for the shares over the next 12 months.
Conclusion
With the reopening of the Sangdong tungsten mine, Almonty Industries is opening a new chapter of growth. The site in South Korea strengthens the company’s position as a supplier outside China in a market where supply security is increasingly the decisive competitive factor. Long-term offtake agreements, tight tungsten supply and further expansion projects underpin the growth prospects. Analysts see significant upside potential in the stock. Experts are likewise optimistic about specialist Renk. An exciting strategy update is due here in early December. Rheinmetall will present its medium-term forecast as early as the end of November. The task is to regain investor confidence after two guidance revisions.
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