Comeback, Orders, Monopolies: Rheinmetall, Almonty Industries and Micron Technology in Focus

Rheinmetall: Major Contract or Major Flop

The US has now accumulated more than USD 40 trillion in debt, partly due to the bloated military budget. At some point, taxpayers will have to foot the bill, whether through inflation or repayment. That said, even the most ardent patriots hardly believe in the myth of repayment.

So what hits US citizens is like a lottery win for the defence industry. And Rheinmetall is heavily involved here as well. The Düsseldorf-based company is on board with the US Army’s XM30 program and is playing a key role in it. The military plans to replace the aging M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle with an Americanized version of Rheinmetall’s flagship Lynx KF41. The total contract value is estimated at up to USD 45 billion. Of that, Rheinmetall could receive up to EUR 15 billion in the best-case scenario. Furthermore, winning the contract would significantly boost the company’s reputation and increase its chances of securing additional orders from NATO countries or US allies. Last but not least, the Rhineland-based company is gaining a major foothold in the US market, by far the largest military market in the world.

Through its subsidiary American Rheinmetall Vehicles, the company is leading a consortium of US partners that includes Raytheon, L3Harris, and Textron Systems, among others. This also ensures compliance with the “Made in the USA” award criteria. Rheinmetall has already delivered a prototype in the first phase, with seven more to follow. That alone will generate more than USD 750 million in revenue. The focus now is on passing the tests and actually securing the contract. General Dynamics Land Systems remains the last competitor. The final decision is expected by the end of 2027.

Until then, Rheinmetall is grappling with day-to-day challenges. Rumours suggest negative free cash flow this year. In addition, more than 5,200 protective plates intended for Berlin police forces had to be disposed of due to defects. Last but not least, complaints about delays in Bundeswehr projects persist.

This news currently seems to be preventing the stock from a sustained breakout. Although it is trading above EUR 1,000 again, volatility has been very high recently. For this year, analysts expect EPS to exceed EUR 55. This means the stock is not really cheap, but it is not expensive either. However, opinions vary widely. Price targets range from around EUR 1,300 to EUR 2,300, as set by Goldman Sachs. Still, even without the massive contract from the US Army, the order pipeline is in the high double-digit billions, which makes business planning straightforward.

Almonty Industries: More Analysts Turn Bullish

Almonty Industries’ stock has been on a steep upward trajectory in recent weeks. After it nearly halved from its all-time high in the spring, the company recouped much of those losses. Since its yearly low in July, Almonty has gained about 60%.

Apparently, the market is beginning to recognize the strategically strong market position the Canadian company holds. With its Sangdong mine in South Korea, the company has established a leading position in the tungsten market outside China. Competition is limited, while larger deposits in countries such as the United Kingdom and Canada are still under development. Notably, Almonty also owns two deposits of its own in the US, Gentung and Pilot Mountain, which are already at an advanced stage of development. Having also relocated its headquarters to the United States, the company is now well-positioned to become a preferred supplier to the US military.

Sangdong alone is already generating significant buzz. The mine has been ramping up operations since March and has made its first positive impact with the Q2 figures. Revenue between April and the end of June totaled CAD 43 million, a 498% increase compared to the same period last year. The company also reported a net profit of CAD 181.8 million for the first time. By comparison, in Q2 2025, the company still posted a loss of CAD 58.2 million due to heavy investments in mine construction.

Analysts expect profits and revenue to surge once the mine is fully operational. Almonty’s first goal is to achieve a processing capacity of 640,000 metric tons of ore per year. In phase two, this capacity is set to almost double. Most recently, analysts at Jefferies recommended the stock a “Buy” and set a price target of USD 26.25, citing the company’s strong market position, driven by the Sangdong mine, its long-term offtake agreements, and its solid financial foundation. The financials also look strong: as of the end of June, Almonty held cash reserves of approximately CAD 1.2 billion. Consequently, the company also announced a share buyback program of up to USD 300 million. In total, around 5% of the outstanding shares are to be repurchased. CEO Lewis Black justified the move by pointing to what he considers the company’s low valuation.

Micron Technology: Is the Next Rally Coming?

Micron Technology’s stock has likely made many investors rich. Between mid-2025 and its 2026 annual high, the stock’s value increased more than fivefold. Those who took a risk and sold can celebrate substantial gains. However, since hitting an all-time high in June, the stock has been consolidating. Even the exceptionally strong quarterly results failed to help. With quarterly revenue of USD 41.46 billion (nearly five times higher) and adjusted earnings per share of USD 25.11, the company had absolutely shattered market expectations. In the current quarter, revenue is expected to exceed USD 50 billion. The gross margin is projected to rise to 85%.

The US company is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI data centre investment boom. The memory chips produced by the company, founded as far back as 1978, are essential in AI data centres to ensure that processors from Nvidia and Google function properly. Micron is not only experiencing a sharp rise in demand but is also able to raise prices significantly. This is now affecting consumers as well, as smartphone and laptop prices are also rising.

Micron’s management has also indicated that the company is sold out through the end of 2027. It now plans to expand its production capacity significantly. According to industry media, capacity is set to nearly double by the end of 2026, reaching around 100,000 HBM wafer starts per month. The focus is on next-generation technology. Micron’s existing facilities in Taiwan and Singapore are expected to benefit the most from this expansion. This move also appears to be a statement aimed at the competition. The HBM memory market is currently dominated by South Korean companies SK Hynix and Samsung. Micron ranks only third here, with a market share of about 18%.

Micron Technology’s stock recently reclaimed the USD 1,000 mark on the Nasdaq. Analysts are optimistic, and their price targets are well above the current price, extending to over USD 2,000.

Rheinmetall has a strong order book and could land a major contract with the US Army by the end of 2027. In the short term, project issues in Germany appear to be weighing on the stock. Almonty is well positioned to ramp up production at its tungsten mine. If the company successfully positions itself with the US projects, it will likely secure additional long-term supply contracts. Micron Technology’s stock is currently consolidating. However, according to analysts, the outlook remains bright thanks to the AI boom.

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