Desert Gold: The moment of truth draws closer
Few gold explorers make the leap towards production. The Canadian mining and exploration company Desert Gold Ventures is now on the verge of crossing this crucial threshold. The focus is on the 100% controlled SMSZ project in western Mali. The 440 km² area extends for 38 km along the Senegal-Mali Shear Zone. Industry heavyweights mining nearby include B2Gold, Barrick Mining and Allied Gold.
The resource base is impressive for a market capitalisation of around CAD 43 million. Measured and indicated resources of 336,800 ounces and inferred resources of 879,900 ounces add up to a little over 1.2 million ounces of gold. More than 20 gold zones discovered offer further exploration upside.
The near-term share price catalyst, however, is Barani East. There, Desert Gold is building a gravity processing plant with a design capacity of 200 tonnes of ore per day. The planned start in July could not be achieved because of significant delays in sea freight, material procurement and transport. Regional fuel shortages, limited availability of construction contractors and the rainy season further complicated the schedule.
The plant and the 650-kilovolt-ampere generator have now reached the project site. The main access road has been repaired, and construction materials and additional equipment are on site. Most recently, concrete, assembly, electrical and installation work was under way. Commissioning is scheduled by the end of October, with ramp-up and initial processing to follow in November. Initial gold recovery remains planned for the fourth quarter of 2026.
Desert Gold is therefore significantly further ahead than it was in the summer. At that time, it was unclear when the plant manufactured in China would even arrive in Barani. The key components are now on site. However, the next proof must come from actual operations: throughput, availability, gold grade, recovery and costs are crucial.
Progress is also being made on the water supply. Following geophysical surveys, four boreholes were drilled. Three of them delivered positive flow rates of 24, 9 and 8 cubic metres per hour. However, the final hydrogeological report is still pending. It therefore remains to be confirmed whether sufficient water of the required quality will be available on a sustained basis.
The small plant matters for the shares because Desert Gold could deliver its own operating data for the first time and potentially generate initial revenue. This would be a major step for a company that has so far been valued solely on its resources and development plans.
The long-term upside extends significantly further. A preliminary economic assessment for Barani and Gourbassi projects an after-tax net present value of USD 61 million and an internal rate of return of 57% at a gold price of USD 2,850 per ounce. The price per troy ounce currently stands at USD 4000. At an assumed gold price of USD 4,070, the modelled value rises to USD 124 million and the rate of return to 101%. The study estimates 113,100 ounces of recoverable gold over 10 years. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are estimated at USD 1,137 per ounce and initial capital requirements at USD 20.4 million.
However, investors must not conflate the two project stages. The current gravity processing plant is designed to process 200 tonnes per day. By contrast, the larger scenario in the economic assessment envisages around 1,200 tonnes per day as well as additional CIL processing. This expansion would require further technical work, permits and capital. Moreover, this is an early-stage study that also includes geologically less certain inferred resources. Desert Gold has not yet defined any mineral reserves.
Precisely for this reason, the small plant remains an important practical test. If processing and gold recovery work, Desert Gold could develop the project further in stages. At the same time, this would reduce the risk that the values reported in the studies exist only on paper.
The Tiegba Gold project in Côte d’Ivoire offers additional upside. There, Desert Gold can acquire up to a 90% interest in a 297 km² area. The project is still early stage, but could spread political and geological risk across a second country over the long term.
At the latest share price of CAD 0.12, Desert Gold has a market capitalisation of around CAD 43 million. In early October, analysts at Augsburg-based financial services provider GBC Research reiterated their Buy recommendation and price target of CAD 0.93. Compared with the current share price, this represents nearly 700% upside. The large gap is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation and the assumption that the production ramp-up succeeds.
GBC’s experts see the arrival of the plant as an important step forward, but explicitly point to the schedule having slipped by three to four months. They say the first reliable operating data will be more important for the valuation than the mere delivery of the equipment. This gets to the heart of the investment story. Given its resources, high gold prices and low market valuation, Desert Gold offers considerable leverage. At the same time, risks remain. Mali is politically challenging, a feasibility study has not yet demonstrated economic viability, and additional capital will likely be needed for later expansion.
For risk-tolerant investors, the shares remain an exciting speculative addition to a portfolio. The next jump in the share price now depends on whether the plant actually operates and the first gold is recovered. The leap from explorer to producer would open the door to a significantly higher valuation. Overall, Desert Gold remains a speculative gold stock with exceptionally high share price potential.
Adidas: A record quarter with substance
At Adidas, the operational recovery under CEO Bjørn Gulden is gathering pace. In the third quarter, revenue rose by 9% to a record EUR 7.25 billion, according to preliminary figures. Currency-adjusted growth was 7%. The gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 54.3%, while operating profit jumped 37% to a quarterly record of EUR 1.01 billion. Only EUR 742 million had been expected.
However, the jump in profit is not entirely clean. In the third quarter, Adidas received a one-off refund of US tariffs of around EUR 200 million. Yet even without this exceptional income, operating profit was still around 9% above expectations. Strong full-price sales and growth in football, running and training products show Adidas is gaining market share and improving the profitability of its core business.
The management board raised its forecast for annual operating profit from EUR 2.3 billion to EUR 2.5 billion. Without the additional EUR 100 million investment planned for the fourth quarter, even EUR 2.6 billion would be mathematically possible. Currency-adjusted revenue growth is still expected to reach 9-10%. Following the unexpectedly strong quarter, analysts expect earnings estimates to be raised by around 4%.
The lifestyle footwear business remains a problem area. Demand for former bestsellers such as Samba and Gazelle is normalising, while high retail inventories are leading to steeper discounts. Adidas is therefore investing in new models and product categories. These include the particularly lightweight Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3 racing shoe. The full quarterly results on October 29 should show how sustainable the margin improvement is.
24 banks and research firms rate the shares a Buy, while 7 institutions rate them a Hold. Only 1 analyst currently recommends Sell. The average price target of EUR 200 implies almost 30% upside. With estimated P/E ratios of 17 for 2026 and 14 for 2027, the valuation appears reasonable given rising margins, market share gains, regained brand momentum and the expected growth in operating profit next year. For speculative investors with staying power, Adidas shares remain a promising turnaround story. Pullbacks offer opportunities to build a position in stages.
Deutsche Börse: Broad-based growth
The Deutsche Börse group does not only make money from rising prices. The group benefits from trading, clearing, securities settlement, index data, fund services and interest income earned on client balances. This broad positioning paid off again in the third quarter.
Net revenue, excluding the treasury result, rose 14% to EUR 1.42 billion. Six of the eight business divisions achieved double-digit growth rates. Including the treasury result, net revenue rose 13% to EUR 1.63 billion. EBITDA rose 16% to EUR 978 million, while profit attributable to shareholders rose 18% to EUR 559 million.
Trading in financial derivatives was particularly strong. Changing interest rate expectations drove high activity in interest rate products. At the same time, more and more money is flowing into exchange-traded funds and other capital market products in Europe. The fund and custody businesses benefit from this on a lasting basis.
Following the strong nine-month performance, the management board raised its forecast again. Net revenue of more than EUR 6.5 billion and EBITDA of around EUR 3.9 billion are now expected for 2026. Previously, the targets were more than EUR 6.4 billion and more than EUR 3.8 billion, respectively.
The planned acquisition of fund platform Allfunds offers additional growth potential. Completion is expected in the first half of 2027, but remains subject to regulatory and antitrust approvals. The purchase price, integration and any potential conditions imposed by regulators therefore remain risks.
Following its strong run, the stock is no longer a bargain. The estimated P/E ratio for the current year is above 25, while that for 2027 is just under 23. In return, Deutsche Börse offers a highly scalable business model, high recurring revenue and structural growth. Many analysts nevertheless remain confident despite the fairly high valuation. 12 Buy recommendations currently stand against 6 Hold ratings and 1 Sell recommendation. For a long-term portfolio, the DAX stock remains a core investment. Investors should preferably build new positions on price weakness.
Conclusion
Desert Gold shares have by far the greatest upside potential, but also carry the highest risk. If commissioning in Barani succeeds and the first reliable production data follow, the hot stock could be revalued. Adidas combines operational recovery with growing brand strength. Although part of the latest jump in profit comes from a one-off tariff refund, the core business is also improving in quality. Deutsche Börse delivers the most solid overall package: double-digit growth, rising forecasts and a broadly diversified business model. Speculative investors are focusing on Desert Gold, while turnaround investors are looking to Adidas. Long-term investors can use weaker trading days to build positions in Deutsche Börse.
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