Newmont: Setting a Strategic Course
In the second quarter of 2026, Newmont demonstrated that its business model works even in the face of operational challenges. Free cash flow reached a new record high of USD 2.2 billion, while adjusted earnings per share of USD 2.10 exceeded analysts’ estimates. Crucially, the company is leveraging high gold prices to strengthen its balance sheet further. Net liquidity of USD 3.4 billion and strong operating cash flow of USD 2.9 billion create room for strategic investments. Although production declined to 1.29 million ounces, the financial metrics show how price increases directly translate into margins.
Production was impacted by seismic events at the Cadia mine and lower ore grades at several sites. Cadia has been back to normal levels since mid-June, and management confirmed the full-year forecast of approximately 5.3 million ounces. All-in sustaining costs remained below the annual target at USD 1,621 per ounce. Although a rise in costs is expected in the third quarter due to higher oil prices and capital expenditures, the leverage effect remains intact. Production is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with the third quarter projected to deliver volumes similar to those of Q2.
The company is consistently advancing its development pipeline. The Red Chris project received key permits to transition to underground mining, which could significantly expand the company’s copper exposure. At the same time, development of Ahafo North, Tanami, and Cerro Negro is progressing. Shareholder value creation remains a key priority. Since the program began in April, USD 2.4 billion has been allocated for share buybacks, with an additional USD 3.6 billion set aside. The dividend was confirmed at USD 0.26 per share. The combination of a solid balance sheet, a strategic investment program, and a consistent focus on shareholders makes the share attractive despite operational volatility. For long-term investors, this presents an attractive entry point.
Desert Gold: Ahead of Production Start
Development work at the Barani East site in Mali is picking up speed noticeably. The company has cleared approximately 52,000 sqm for the processing plant and logistics areas. The first groundwater drilling is already underway, following a geophysical survey across 15 survey lines that identified 13 target points. The hydrogeological conditions at depths between 60 and 90 m are considered favourable. At the same time, technical acceptance of the 200-metric-ton-per-day gravity plant in China was completed. Six containers carrying the equipment, along with a 650-kVA generator, have been en route by sea since the end of April. Gold production is scheduled to begin in the second half of the year.
In addition to construction progress, the exploration program is in full swing. In mid-April, an RC drilling program totaling 4,250 m was launched, focusing on five priority targets, including Koussili, Gourbassi West North, and the Barani Gap. The goal is to extend known mineralization at depth and along strike and to develop structurally controlled zones. The SMSZ project’s current resource base comprises 310,300 ounces in the measured and indicated categories, as well as 769,200 ounces of inferred resources. The ongoing campaign aims to expand this base and make new discoveries in the immediate vicinity of the planned mine.
At the same time, Desert Gold holds an untested trump card with the Tiegba Gold project in Côte d’Ivoire. A historical anomaly spans 4 x 2 km and has never been drilled. A hit there would transform the company from a purely Mali-based player into a regionally diversified producer. Management holds approximately 10% of the shares. With the upcoming start of production in Mali and the concurrent drilling, two scenarios emerge: either independent value creation through operating cash flow or a strategic acquisition by one of the neighbouring heavyweights.
Agnico Eagle: Short-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Opportunities
Gold producer Agnico Eagle faces a mixed situation in the summer of 2026. While the first quarter brought record profits, a rock slide at the Barnat open-pit mine is causing operational turbulence. Production in the second half of 2026 is expected to decline by 60,000 to 80,000 ounces; in the medium term, annual shortfalls of up to 150,000 ounces are possible. However, the recent weakness in the share price is also due to other factors. In addition to the drop in the gold price, the company’s previously ambitious valuation is weighing on the stock. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was above the company’s own five-year average. Rising interest rates and a strong US dollar are further dampening demand for the precious metal.
At the same time, Agnico Eagle is pushing ahead with its expansion in Finland. Three acquisitions in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt have been completed, enabling the company to consolidate a contiguous area of nearly 2,500 km². The vision is a production platform of around 500,000 ounces per year—more than twice as much as in Kittilä. The Ikkari deposit already holds 3.5 million ounces in reserves and could significantly strengthen the company’s balance sheet. This strategic direction is reminiscent of the successful acquisition of Kittilä in the early 2000s, but now on a larger scale.
The financial foundation remains robust. Agnico has net cash of approximately USD 2.2 billion and the lowest total costs among major producers. The dividend stands at USD 0.45, and share repurchase programs totaling up to USD 2 billion are underway. The 2026 production forecast of 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces has been confirmed. Analysts at Jefferies view the recent weakness as an attractive opportunity, as they consider the share’s risk-reward ratio to be increasingly favourable and view the strategic realignment as value-enhancing over the long term.
The gold rally remains intact—the fundamental mix of central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and falling interest rates is keeping the price firmly above USD 4,000. Newmont impresses with high free cash flow and consistent shareholder returns, despite declines in operational production. Desert Gold is on the verge of starting production in Mali and offers additional acquisition potential alongside operating cash flow. Added to this is the “free” Côte d’Ivoire option. Agnico Eagle is struggling with short-term production outages, but its financial strength and expansion in Finland open up long-term prospects. Investors should weigh the different risk profiles. Opportunities exist with all three stocks.
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