Desert Gold: USD 244.8 Million Analyst Valuation vs Just CAD 40 Million Market Cap
The price of gold briefly slipped below USD 4,400 per troy ounce on Wednesday. Does this mean the precious metal’s comeback is already over? Gold expert Markus Bußler regards the current correction in gold, silver and mining shares as healthy and to be expected. Following the strong rally, a breather was necessary. The comments by US Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and the resulting resurgence in discussion about possible interest rate rises merely provided the trigger. From a technical analysis perspective, Bußler sees no signs so far of a sustained break in the trend and considers deeper lows unlikely. For gold, he cites the USD 4,300 area as a possible correction target. For silver, the USD 60-63 range is of interest. He advises investors who missed the summer lows to use the current period of weakness to enter the market or build up their positions.
Bußler also sees no cause for concern regarding mining companies so far. The recent pullbacks are normal following the previous strong price rises and would present buying opportunities. He also expects the news flow to pick up again after Labour Day, when takeovers, financing deals and corporate announcements traditionally increase in North America.
Explorer shares are known to act as a lever on the gold price. The most exciting phase for an explorer is likely the transition to becoming a producer. This is because further growth can then be financed by the company’s own cash flow. Large capital raises, which dilute existing shareholders and repeatedly put pressure on the share price, are then no longer necessary. This is precisely the step Desert Gold is currently taking.
GBC Research therefore believes Desert Gold’s share price could rise to CAD 0.93. The share price has been trading sideways for months and currently stands at around CAD 0.11. Investors are waiting for news that the gravity plant has been delivered. Once this happens, gold production can commence at the SMSZ project, which has a current resource of around 1.2 million ounces of gold in western Mali. Production is set to begin on a relatively small scale in the Barani East area. This will enable Desert Gold to make the transition from a pure-play explorer to a producer without having to invest large sums immediately in a major mine. Furthermore, production can provide valuable operational experience and generate cash flows for further drilling and expansion of the resource base. GBC considers a throughput of around 1,200 tonnes per day feasible by the end of the year and, based on production costs of approximately USD 1,110 per ounce and a gold price of USD 2,850, forecasts revenue of around USD 33 million and EBITDA of more than USD 20 million for 2027. As mentioned, this represents only a small part of the SMSZ project; moreover, Desert Gold is currently valued at only around CAD 40 million on the stock market.
An ongoing reverse-circulation drill program covering around 4,250 m is set to investigate five prioritized target areas and, in particular, further delineate the mineralization around Barani East. Management therefore believes that the existing resource of around 1.2 million ounces of gold should be regarded as merely an interim figure. Furthermore, Desert Gold is establishing a second pillar of its business. With the Tiegba Gold project in Côte d’Ivoire, the company holds around 297 km² of exploration ground, featuring historical gold discoveries and several gold anomalies that have so far been only sparsely investigated. Overall, analysts put Desert Gold’s sum-of-the-parts valuation at USD 244.8 million.
DroneShield: Disappointment of the Year
The stock market can sometimes be a mystery. While drones and drone defence dominate the headlines, DroneShield’s share price has been one of the disappointments of 2026. So far this year, the share price has fallen by almost 50%. The shares of the Australian drone defence specialist are currently trading at approximately EUR 1.03, giving the company a market capitalization of around AUD 1.54 billion. The 52-week high was EUR 3.78 in October. The most recent half-year report failed to provide any positive momentum.
DroneShield increased its turnover by 74% to AUD 125.8 million in the first half of 2026. The recurring business performed particularly strongly, growing by 229% to AUD 11.5 million. This was driven by an increase in software-enabled systems in the field, now totalling over 4,000 units, as well as a stronger focus on long-term software, service and upgrade revenues. Regionally, the company reported larger, recurring orders from military and government customers, particularly in Europe, the UK and the US.
However, this strong growth came at the expense of profitability. The gross margin fell from 65.3% to 60.0%, partly due to a change in the product mix, currency effects and write-downs on raw materials associated with the move to the new production facility and the introduction of a new ERP system. At the same time, DroneShield significantly increased its workforce from 363 to 535 and invested heavily in research, development, production and administration. This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of AUD 12.4 million, following a profit of AUD 8.0 million in the same period last year. The bottom line was a loss of AUD 32.2 million. DroneShield can afford this loss. Cash and cash equivalents, along with term deposits, remained a solid AUD 180 million at the end of June.
The outlook for the full year remains positive. The revenue forecast for 2026, between AUD 250 million and AUD 270 million, has been confirmed. As at 21 August 2026, DroneShield had already secured firm revenue commitments totalling AUD 240 million. Further committed revenue of AUD 43 million has been secured for 2027 and subsequent years. In the second half of the year, DroneShield aims to improve its gross margin, deliver the first RfRecon systems and further increase the proportion of recurring software and service revenue.
Delivery Hero: Is Uber’s Takeover Bid Too Low?
Delivery Hero’s share price staged a comeback in May. The share price soared from EUR 20 to EUR 40. However, this was not due to operational performance, but to a takeover bid. Uber wants to take over the food delivery company and is offering EUR 41.50 per share. Delivery Hero’s management described the offer yesterday as “fair”, and major shareholder Prosus has pledged its shares. Yet, looking at the latest figures, a price increase would be possible.
Delivery Hero gained significant momentum in the second quarter of 2026 and exceeded market expectations. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose by 11.3% on a like-for-like basis to EUR 13.2 billion, 3.4% above the consensus. Revenue increased by 17.7% to EUR 4.0 billion. The Americas performed particularly strongly, with GMV growth of 29.1%, as did the Integrated Verticals at 32.3%. Asia also continued its recovery. GMV growth accelerated for the third consecutive quarter to 6.4%.
From mwb research’s perspective, profitability and cash flow at Delivery Hero are developing positively. Adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 427 million in the first half of the year, around 8% above analysts’ expectations. Free cash flow, excluding one-off items, performed strongly, rising from a loss of EUR 8 million in the previous year to EUR 348 million. Delivery Hero benefited in particular from improvements in working capital and lower capital expenditure.
In light of this strong performance, Delivery Hero has raised its forecast for 2026. It now expects GMV growth of 9% to 11%, revenue growth of 17% to 19%, and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 960 million to EUR 1.0 billion. Free cash flow before exceptional items is expected to exceed EUR 250 million.
Given the operational improvements, a “Buy” recommendation would be plausible. However, mwb is sticking to its “Sell” rating and a price target of EUR 41.50. The decisive factor is Uber’s takeover bid at EUR 41.50 per share. As long as this is not increased, there is no reason for the share price to rise.
At Desert Gold, many signs are pointing to a breakout from the sideways trend. If the gravity separation plant is delivered, one could speculate on a sharp rise in the share price. DroneShield simply lacks momentum at present. It will likely take a major contract to rekindle shareholder enthusiasm. Delivery Hero seems to have delivered its strong results too late. A rise in the offer price appears unlikely.
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