- U.S. egg prices fell below US$1.20/dozen in October, hitting a two-year low due to rising supply, fading seasonal demand, and reduced retail promotions
- USDA data shows egg production outpacing consumption, with inventories and hatchery placements increasing, signaling further growth in layer flocks
- Key U.S. egg producers like Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM) and Vital Farms (NASDAQ:VITL) offer investment opportunities, with CALM leading in volume and VITL focusing on ethical sourcing
- Broader exposure is available through agriculture ETFs like Invesco’s PBJ and First Trust’s FXG, while Canadian investors may consider Maple Leaf Foods (TSX:MFI) for protein sector exposure
Cracking the market: U.S. egg futures slide to two-year lows amid oversupply and weak demand
Remember when U.S. egg prices were sky-high? October 2025 has brought a notable shift in that market, with wholesale egg prices falling below US$1.20 per dozen, their lowest level in nearly two years. This decline reflects a confluence of rising supply, seasonal demand softening, and waning promotional activity in retail channels.
This article is a journalistic opinion piece which has been written based on independent research. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice.
Market dynamics: Supply outpaces demand
According to the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Market News, the national average price for white large eggs dropped to US$1.16 per dozen on October 2, down 1.91 per cent from the previous day and a staggering 45 per cent lower than the same time last year. This price erosion is largely attributed to:
- Inventory growth: Large-egg stockpiles rose 6 per cent year-over-year by late September.
- Production increases: August egg output slightly exceeded July levels and was only 2 per cent below the same period in 2024.
- Hatchery expansion: Egg-type chick placements were up 5 per cent, and incubator egg counts surged 12 per cent year-over-year, signaling further growth in layer flocks.
- Demand weakness: Post–back-to-school demand has tapered off, and retail prices have hit annual highs, discouraging consumer purchases.
The USDA’s Shell Egg Demand Indicator fell to -14.70 in early October, indicating a significant imbalance between supply and demand. With moderate-to-heavy supplies and light-to-moderate orders, negotiated prices have collapsed, and trading activity remains sluggish.
Investment opportunities in egg producers
Despite short-term price pressures, long-term investors may find value in companies and funds exposed to the egg and broader food production sectors.
Cal-Maine Foods
As the largest egg producer in the U.S., Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM) offers a diversified portfolio including conventional, cage-free, organic, and specialty eggs. The company recently reported its strongest first quarter in history, with US$922.6 million in net sales, up 17.4 per cent year-over-year. Specialty eggs now account for 35.9 per cent of total shell egg sales, reflecting consumer demand for premium, ethically sourced products.
Cal-Maine’s stock (NASDAQ:CALM) opened trading around US$92.50, with a P/E ratio of 3.56 and a dividend yield of 9.03 per cent, making it attractive for income-focused investors. It has risen 28.05 per cent since this time last year.
Vital Farms
Vital Farms (NASDAQ:VITL) specializes in pasture-raised eggs and butter, emphasizing ethical sourcing and regenerative agriculture. With a market cap of US$1.87 billion and a P/E ratio of 36.56, Vital Farms appeals to ESG-conscious investors seeking exposure to sustainable food production.
The company has shown strong growth, with a 244 per cent return over three years, and analysts maintain a buy rating, suggesting upside potential.
Vital Farms stock (NASDAQ:VITL) opened trading at US$42.22 and has risen 13.30 per cent since this time last year.
Broader exposure: Agriculture and consumer staples ETFs
For investors seeking diversified exposure to the food and beverage sector, two ETFs stand out:
Invesco Dynamic Food and Beverage ETF
PBJ tracks the Dynamic Food & Beverage Intellidex Index (ARCA:PBJ), focusing on U.S. companies in food manufacturing and distribution. Top holdings include DoorDash, Hershey, Monster Beverage, and Sysco.
- Expense ratio: 0.61 per cent
- Dividend yield: 1.91 per cent
- 1-year return: -3.01 per cent
- Assets under management: US$104 million
PBJ offers a multi-factor approach, evaluating companies on price momentum, earnings, and value.
First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF
First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF (ARCA:FXG) uses a quantitative AlphaDEX methodology to select consumer staples stocks from the Russell 1000 Index. It includes food producers like Kraft Heinz, Bunge Global, Pilgrim’s Pride, and Casey’s General Stores. [finance.yahoo.com]
- Expense ratio: 0.62 per cent
- Dividend yield: 2.21 per cent
- 1-year return: -5.12 per cent
- Assets under management: US$288 million
FXG provides exposure to both consumer defensive and healthcare sectors, offering a hedge against economic volatility.
Canadian perspective
For Canadian investors, Maple Leaf Foods (TSX:MFI) offers a domestic option in protein and processed food production. While not egg-exclusive, the company is a major player in the sector, with brands like Maple Leaf, Schneiders, and Greenfield Natural Meat Co.
- Stock price: C$31.23
- Market cap: C$3.78 billion
- P/E ratio: 21.93
- Dividend yield: 3.07 per cent
Maple Leaf recently completed the spin-off of Canada Packers Inc., streamlining its operations and potentially unlocking shareholder value.
Maple Leaf Foods stock (TSX:MFI) opened trading at C$31.22 and has risen 56.12 per cent since this time last year.
The yolk of the matter
While egg futures (not to be confused with chickens) are currently under pressure, the long-term outlook for egg producers—especially those focused on specialty and ethical products—remains promising. Investors can consider direct exposure through stocks like Cal-Maine Foods and Vital Farms, or opt for diversified ETFs such as PBJ and FXG. Canadian investors may also look to Maple Leaf Foods for local exposure to the protein and food production industry.
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