A.H.T. Syngas: Share Price Starts Rally
A.H.T. CEO Gero Ferges appears to have convinced investors at the IIF digital investor conference. Since then, the stock has risen by around 25% to EUR 3.24. However, this is likely just the start of a longer rally, as the company is poised for significant growth. As a result, analysts at GBC Research even see the stock reaching a price of EUR 8.50.
In his presentation, Gero Ferges outlined how the company intends to benefit from rising energy prices, the expansion of renewable energy, and the growing demand for hydrogen. He not only presented the technology but also substantiated the economic advantages with concrete real-world examples and growth plans.
A.H.T. Syngas develops and markets systems for converting biomass, residual materials, and waste into synthesis gas. The patented “Twin-Fire” gasification technology can process a wide variety of feedstocks, such as wood residues, sewage sludge, or substitute fuels, and use them to generate heat, electricity, and, in the future, hydrogen. To date, the company has generated its revenue primarily through the sale of plants. In the future, however, the business model is to be expanded to include long-term operator and contracting models, in which A.H.T. acts as an independent energy producer and generates recurring revenue.
In addition to the traditional bioenergy market, A.H.T. sees great potential in the hydrogen sector. The technology enables the production of green hydrogen from biomass and waste materials. Additional revenue streams are available through greenhouse gas certificates and the supply of future markets such as sustainable aviation fuel or methanol.
As a reference project, Ferges presented a plant in Germany that enables an industrial customer to save approximately EUR 600,000 annually on gas costs. The investment of approximately EUR 1.6 million simultaneously reduces CO₂ emissions by around 1,500 tons per year. In addition, A.H.T. offers standardized biomass power plants that can generate annual electricity revenues of around EUR 4 million with an electrical output of 2 MW. In the hydrogen sector, the company has a newly patented plant that produces approximately 210 kg of hydrogen per hour from 1.7 tons of biomass.
Management expects further growth in the coming years, particularly in Germany and Poland, where numerous projects are already in the approval or preparation phase. By shifting its focus toward contracting models and the operation of its own plants, margins are expected to rise from the current level of around 10% to approximately 18%. Analysts at GBC Research expect A.H.T. to generate nearly EUR 10 million in revenue this year. By 2028, revenues are expected to exceed EUR 20 million. A.H.T. is currently valued at less than EUR 10 million on the stock market.** This appears to be anything but expensive.
https://youtu.be/Xh7gCe7tKMQ?si=e1xfQTEUK3c_qfsG
Hensoldt: Overvalued?
Hensoldt shares lost over 10% of their value last week. In addition to the weak market environment, a new analyst report also contributed to selling pressure. mwb research has reaffirmed its “Sell” recommendation for the defense stock. While analysts continue to view Hensoldt as a high-quality defence company with a strong market position in Europe, they remain skeptical regarding the stock’s valuation. The company is currently benefiting from accelerated rearmament in Germany and Europe and was able to raise its forecast for adjusted free cash flow in 2026. This is driven by higher customer prepayments resulting from faster procurement programs. From an operational perspective, the business continues to perform very well, according to analysts, which is why the revenue and earnings targets were confirmed.
However, mwb emphasizes that the improvement in free cash flow is primarily a temporary effect. The higher advance payments would inflate cash flow in the short term but would need to be worked through in later years. At the same time, analysts expect order growth to gradually normalize following the current boom. According to consensus estimates, the book-to-bill ratio is expected to decline from 1.8 in 2026 to 1.3 in 2028. Therefore, mwb does not view the current cash inflows as a sustainable value driver.
mwb also takes a critical view of Hensoldt’s increasing focus on “Software-Defined Defence.” While initiatives such as BattleLab, the partnership with German drone specialist Helsing, and projects in the area of sovereign cloud solutions make strategic sense, according to analysts’ estimates, this business segment is likely to account for less than 10% of consolidated revenue even in 2030. From mwb’s perspective, this does not justify a significant technology premium on the valuation. After all, Hensoldt remains a classic hardware and sensor specialist. Accordingly, the analysts confirm their “Sell” rating with a price target of EUR 62. Yesterday, the share was trading at EUR 78.
Nordex: Time to Sell?
As with Hensoldt, a “Sell” recommendation recently put pressure on Nordex as well. RBC has confirmed its “Underperform” rating for the German wind turbine manufacturer’s stock. Nordex surprised analysts positively with its first-quarter results. Nevertheless, they see many uncertainties. As a result, they have lowered the price target for Nordex shares from EUR 38 to EUR 35. The share is currently trading at around EUR 40. In the European energy sector, for example, RBC experts prefer Siemens Energy shares.
Perhaps the latest order announcement could help analysts revise their assessment of Nordex. In the first few months of the second quarter, the wind turbine specialist reported new orders from Germany with a total capacity of around 255 MW. The orders comprise 14 wind energy projects involving a total of 39 turbines of the N163/6.X, N175/6.X, and N149 types. All contracts also include service and maintenance provisions. Construction and commissioning of the wind farms are scheduled for between summer 2027 and spring 2028.
Among the new projects is the Rheine-Catenhorn community wind farm in North Rhine-Westphalia with a capacity of 35 MW. Five N163/6.X turbines are to be installed there. The project is being implemented in collaboration with the project developer BBWind. “Community wind farms play a central role in Germany’s energy transition. They combine economic benefits with local acceptance and enable residents to participate directly in the energy transition,” says Nordex manager Karsten Brüggemann. “We are very pleased to be implementing another project in this important segment together with BBWind and thus further advancing the expansion of wind energy.”
The two companies have been working together since 2014 and, according to their own statements, have installed 26 wind turbines in North Rhine-Westphalia to date, with a total capacity of over 100 MW. Nordex did not disclose further details regarding the customers and locations of the newly commissioned projects.
Defence and energy-related shares will continue to keep the stock market on its toes in the coming years. However, many stocks have already performed very well. A.H.T. Syngas is among the laggards. The energy rally of recent months has passed the stock by. Therefore, it appears undervalued. The situation is different for Hensoldt. As with many other defence stocks, much of the positive news is already priced into the share price. At Nordex, order intake remains positive.
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