Novo Nordisk: Caught Between Price Pressure and the Pill Offensive
In the second quarter of 2026, Novo Nordisk reported a 7% rise in revenue to DKK 78.5 billion, driven by continued strong demand for GLP-1 preparations. However, the delight at this volume growth is tempered by a falling margin. The adjusted gross margin fell to 78.2% from 82.7% in the same period last year. This is due to lower realised prices, currency effects and one-off costs associated with the expansion of production capacity. This development shows that increasing price pressure in the US market is weighing on the group’s profitability.
The oral version of Wegovy, which is proving to be a growth driver, is expected to put the company back on track for success. CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar put the market share in the oral obesity therapies segment at around 90%, with over 5 million prescriptions in the US since its market launch. The recent market launch in Germany at the beginning of September marks another milestone in the company’s European expansion. In parallel, the OASIS-5 study is underway to determine the lowest effective maintenance dose. This is a strategic move to make the treatment attractive to a broader patient base through lower costs and better tolerability.
Despite operational progress, intensified competition is weighing on the share price. Eli Lilly is entering the market with its oral drug Foundayo, putting Novo Nordisk under pressure. The recent downgrade by Deutsche Bank, as well as the persistently weak full-year forecast, which anticipates a decline in turnover of up to 6%, reflects the subdued sentiment. Investors must brace themselves for a difficult second half of the year, in which pricing and access pressures in the US, as well as pipeline risks, will be key determinants of future performance.
BioNxt Solutions: Thin-Film Technology in Billion-Dollar Markets
BioNxt Solutions’ obesity division is clearly gaining momentum. The semaglutide thin-film program has been in active pharmaceutical development since July, with support from its German partner, Gen-Plus. With the procurement of the active ingredient and ongoing formulation work, the company is targeting a market projected to grow to over USD 250 billion by 2034. The orally soluble film bypasses the gastrointestinal tract and could thus improve bioavailability compared with oral tablets. BioNxt also plans to extend the platform to other GLP-1 preparations such as tirzepatide. This is a smart move to quickly gain a foothold in the growing peptide therapy market.
The flagship BNT23001 for multiple sclerosis reached a crucial milestone in August. The completion of the IMPD dossier paves the way for the planned bioequivalence study in humans. Using Mavenclad® as the reference, which generated an estimated USD 1.4 billion in revenue in 2025, the sublingual formulation aims to achieve comparable drug levels while offering greater patient comfort. This is particularly relevant for MS patients who suffer from difficulty swallowing. Patent protection in Europe and Eurasia through 2043, along with an initial letter of intent for marketing in Eurasia, underpin the commercial potential. In parallel, developments are underway for myasthenia gravis and other autoimmune indications.
The convertible debentures worth CAD 5.475 million, extended in August and maturing in 2027/28, provide the company with financial breathing space, while the issuance of 16.9 million warrants at CAD 0.50 signals bondholders’ confidence. With GMP batch production in Germany, a broad patent portfolio and a strategic focus on bioequivalence rather than high-risk new developments, BioNxt is well positioned. The ongoing partnership discussions for BNT23001 and the promising semaglutide platform open up attractive long-term prospects for patient investors.
Pfizer: Walking a Tightrope
The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing a profound upheaval in the market for obesity therapies. While Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are the heavyweights with Zepbound and Wegovy, Pfizer is making a concerted push. The monthly GLP-1 agonist berobenatide (PF-3944), acquired through the Metsera takeover, forms the centrepiece of this strategy. Phase IIb data show a placebo-adjusted weight loss of up to 12.3% after 28 weeks with a monthly rather than weekly dose. This is a key convenience benefit for patients and a potential advantage in terms of treatment adherence. Ten Phase III trials are already underway, with the first approval targeted for 2028.
The Q2 figures presented on August 4 underpin Pfizer’s claim to be reinventing itself. Revenue rose by 1% on a currency-adjusted basis to around USD 15 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of USD 14.41 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.77 were also above market expectations. Excluding COVID-19 treatments, revenue would have risen by as much as 5%. The group raised its revenue forecast for 2026 by USD 500 million to between USD 60.5 billion and USD 62.5 billion and confirmed its earnings forecast of between USD 2.80 and USD 3.00 per share.
The impending patent expiry for Eliquis and Ibrance, which together account for almost a quarter of revenue, as well as the normalization of the COVID-19 business, are putting pressure on Pfizer.
Analysts expect profits to decline through 2029. As a countermeasure, management has launched a cost-cutting program worth just under USD 10 billion by 2029, designed to underpin the operating margin. Should berobenatide, with its monthly dosing regimen, stand out from the established weekly preparations, Pfizer stands to generate billions in revenue. The oncology division, bolstered by the Seagen acquisition, offers further potential. Investors currently believe in this potential and have driven the share price up by more than 20% since the start of July.
The obesity treatment market is becoming a strategic battleground for differentiation by dosage form. Novo Nordisk is securing early market share with its oral weight-loss pill, but is struggling with margin pressure and competition from Eli Lilly. BioNxt Solutions is positioning itself in this billion-dollar market with its sublingual thin film without having to develop active ingredients itself. Pfizer is entering the race with the monthly berobenatide, a decisive long-term proposition. The coming years will determine who best combines patient comfort and profitability.
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