Desert Gold: Multiple Catalysts; Analysts Cite High Upside Potential
Desert Gold’s most important asset is the 100% owned Senegal-Mali Shear Zone project. The SMSZ property covers 440 km² in western Mali and extends approximately 38 km along one of West Africa’s most productive gold structures. Located in the same geological zone are, among others, B2Gold’s Fekola mine and Barrick’s Loulo and Gounkoto mines.
Mali is one of Africa’s leading gold producers. The precious metal is of central importance to the economy of this West African country and, together with cotton, dominates exports, generating a significant portion of foreign exchange and government revenue. In addition to first-class geology, the country also boasts good infrastructure in the established mining regions. The mining law was reformed in 2023, a move that was followed by numerous and protracted conflicts with established producers; however, these have since been resolved. Given the political risk, investors have historically factored in a high risk premium.
To date, more than 20 gold zones have been identified on the SMSZ property, and over 95,000 m of drilling have been completed. The Canadian company has a resource base of just over 1.2 million ounces of gold. Numerous target areas have so far been explored only to a limited extent or not at all systematically. This presents further opportunities.
In addition to the geology, the project’s economic viability is also compelling. The updated preliminary economic assessment (PEA) from November 2025 delivered convincing results, even though the study considered only the comparatively small, near-surface deposits at Barani and Gourbassi. The majority of the resource has thus been excluded from the analysis so far. At a gold price of USD 3,350, the project value was USD 87 million (equivalent to CAD 121 million at current exchange rates) and the internal rate of return (IRR) was 76%.
Desert Gold is pursuing a phased development approach. As a first step, a compact gravity plant with a capacity of 200 metric tons per day is to be installed at the Barani East site. Extensive preparatory work has been completed at the site, and commissioning is expected to take place in the second half of the year.
New discoveries and the expansion of known mineralizations are the focus of the 4,250 m drill program launched this spring. The plan calls for 46 drill holes in the target areas of Koussili, Gourbassi West North, Mogoyafara South, Kolon-Soa, and Barani Gap. Additional near-surface ounces near Barani would be particularly valuable, as they would extend the life of the planned mine.
Analysts at GBC are bullish on the Canadian company’s stock and have set a price target of CAD 0.93. This represents enormous upside potential from the current price level of CAD 0.115, which means the company is currently valued at just CAD 41 million on the stock market.
Barrick Mining: Has It Reached Its Limit?
The Canadian company’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex is located in far western Mali, in the heart of the gold-rich Senegal-Mali Shear Zone. It comprises two mining licenses and several interconnected open-pit and underground operations. Barrick holds an 80% stake in each of the operating companies for Loulo and Gounkoto, while the Republic of Mali holds a 20% stake.
In February, Mali extended the Loulo mining license for another 10 years, thereby eliminating a key source of uncertainty. The feasibility study conducted as part of the license extension confirmed reserves sufficient for 6 more years of open-pit mining and up to 16 years of underground production.
In the second quarter of 2026, Barrick produced 796,000 ounces of gold company-wide, exceeding its own forecast. The company attributed the result, among other things, to the faster-than-planned ramp-up of Loulo-Gounkoto.
The planned initial public offering (IPO) of the North American gold assets by the end of 2026 could serve as a catalyst for a revaluation of Barrick. At the same time, the group is gaining financial flexibility for its international gold and copper operations. The stock has risen 13% since the beginning of the year. However, the majority of analysts believe the stock has now run its course.
B2Gold: Moderate Valuation
B2Gold has been active in Mali for many years. At the existing Fekola mine, the Canadian company holds an 80% stake under the former mining law, with the government holding the remaining 20%. With the recently granted, long-awaited mining permit for Menankoto, the way is now clear for the Fekola Regional project. Together with the Dandoko area, Menankoto forms the expansion area of the existing mine.
B2Gold plans to gradually ramp up production next year. Starting in 2028, Fekola Regional is expected to deliver more than 150,000 ounces of gold annually and extend the life of the entire complex well into the 2030s.
The Canadian company’s shares are moderately valued, with a 2026 P/E ratio of 7.2 and a 2027 P/E ratio of 4.9. At the current price of around CAD 8, the market capitalization stands at just under CAD 11 billion. Analysts, on average, estimate the stock has around 15% upside potential.
The mines operated by Barrick and B2Gold underscore the exceptional quality of the Malian gold belt. Following the resolution of disputes arising from the new mining law, the industry and the government have reached an understanding. This is evidenced by license extensions or renewals, as well as ongoing production. Risk premiums should continue to decline gradually. In addition to the high gold price and political normalization in Mali, the upcoming start of gold production in particular highlights the opportunities for Desert Gold’s stock. Analysts at GBC attribute significant upside potential to the shares.
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