Newmont: More profit from less gold
On October 22, Newmont presented its third-quarter results. Adjusted net profit rose to USD 2,309 million or USD 2.20 per share, from USD 1,883 million and USD 1.71 a year earlier. Free cash flow stood at USD 1,912 million, compared with USD 1,571 million in the previous year. The realised gold price of USD 4,317 per ounce is playing into the group’s hands, compared with just USD 3,539 a year ago. Production, however, was only 1.302 million ounces, down from 1.421 million ounces. Output is expected to rise again over the long term.
On costs, Newmont has improved its guidance for 2026. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) after by-product credits are now expected to be USD 1,520 per ounce, while production remains at 5.26 million ounces. In the fourth quarter, more gold is expected than in the previous quarter at 1.365 million ounces, but also higher AISC of USD 1,900. Since the last results announcement, USD 1.9 billion has been returned to shareholders, including USD 1.6 billion through buybacks. Around USD 2.8 billion currently remains under the USD 6.0 billion programme. The dividend of USD 0.26 per share will be paid on December 21.
The projects are expected to supply the additional output. At Tanami, shaft construction for the second expansion phase is complete, commercial production is now expected towards the end of the first half of 2027, earlier than planned. At Red Chris Block Cave, in which Newmont holds a 70% stake, the investment decision is due in early 2027, with production scheduled for 2033. Development capital is USD 4.2 to 4.8 billion on a 100% basis and after the expected Canadian grant. If the ramp-up succeeds, output could increase. In the fourth quarter, USD 1.95 billion is payable to Barrick under the amended agreement for the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.
Kobo Resources: Kossou drills towards its first resource estimate
New ounces are not created on the drawing board, but in the drill hole. This is where Kobo Resources comes in. The company is exploring for gold in Côte d’Ivoire. The company’s flagship project is called Kossou. The project is wholly owned by the company, with no royalties payable to third parties. By the September 29 announcement, the company had drilled over 53,430 m in 260 holes at Kossou, covering only around 10% of the 110.2 km² licence area. According to Kobo, the geology resembles that of an established mine in the immediate vicinity.
On September 29, new drill results were released from 14 holes, 6 from the Road Cut Zone and 8 from the Kadie Zone. At the Road Cut Zone, one hole intersected 19 m grading 1.94 g/t gold, including 14.2 m grading 2.44 g/t and 9 m grading 3.29 g/t. In the Kadie Zone, drilling intersected 9 m grading 2.44 g/t, including 2 m grading 9.78 g/t. According to the company, the northern sections indicate that the system continues further north. Additional drilling is planned in this area. The picture is becoming clearer.
The metallurgical results support this. Tests at SGS yielded average gold recovery of around 97%, within a range of 94 to 99%, using a process modelled on that of a nearby mine. On October 7, at the International Investment Forum (IIF), Kobo indicated that its first resource estimate was expected in the first quarter of 2027. A further 9,000 to 10,000 m of drilling are planned before then. Drilling is also set to begin on the Kotobi licence, which covers 302 km² and is more than twice the size of Kossou. If the resource can be expanded, it could further boost the project. The groundwork has been laid.
Agnico Eagle: Barnat holds back output, in-house projects expected to deliver
On October 28, Agnico Eagle published its third-quarter results. Net profit rose to USD 1,353 million or USD 2.67 per share, from USD 1,055 million and USD 2.10 in the previous year. On an adjusted basis, it was USD 1,324 million or USD 2.62 per share, compared with USD 1,085 million and USD 2.16 previously. The gold price provided the boost. The realised price was USD 4,264 per ounce, up from USD 3,476. Free cash flow, however, fell to USD 852 million from USD 1,190 million.
Production fell to 814,012 ounces, compared with 866,936 ounces a year ago. The reason is the ground movement at the Barnat open pit in July, which dealt a setback to the Canadian Malartic complex. This will result in a shortfall of 60,000 to 80,000 ounces in the second half. For 2026, production is therefore expected at the lower end of the range of 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces. Costs are also rising. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose to USD 1,648 per ounce from USD 1,331. For the full year, the company is targeting the upper end of the range of USD 1,400 to 1,550.
The group has financial headroom. After deducting debt, net cash stood at USD 3,416 million at the end of September, and after the quarter-end the credit facility was increased from USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion, with a maturity of 2031. Growth is expected to come from in-house projects. Construction at Hope Bay is around 13% complete, with annual production of 400,000 to 435,000 ounces expected from 2030. Production via Shaft 1 at Odyssey is scheduled for the second quarter of 2027. If the timetable is met, Agnico Eagle could close the production gap. On December 15, the company will pay a dividend of USD 0.45 per share.
Conclusion
Central banks are buying gold, but the producers have to deliver it. Newmont is profiting from the price and is basing future gold output on Tanami and Red Chris. If the ramp-up succeeds, output could increase again. Kobo Resources is delivering one drill result after another, and with gold recovery of around 97% the company is heading towards its first resource estimate in the first quarter of 2027. Agnico Eagle is also earning more, but recently lost ounces and is relying on Hope Bay and Odyssey.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.
Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.
The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.
The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.
Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.