Nel ASA: Between Technological Promise and Operational Reality
The Norwegian electrolyzer manufacturer is undergoing a period of realignment. While the order books are well-filled at around NOK 1.2 billion and cash reserves remain ample at about NOK 1.3 billion, the operational business is under strain. Revenue plummeted by 12% to NOK 153 million in the second quarter, a clear setback. The EBITDA of minus NOK 155 million raises questions, though it is distorted by a one-time payment of approximately NOK 73 million from the Iwatani legal dispute. On an adjusted basis, there is no further decline. The cost side has already been significantly streamlined, with a reduction in headcount from 430 to 313.
The real strategic lever lies in the new pressurized alkaline platform. After eight years of development, it was announced as a commercial product in May and is expected to reduce hydrogen production costs from USD 7.80 to 4.50 per kilogram. This difference could make many previously stalled projects economically viable. Space requirements are reduced by 80%, and investment costs for customers by up to 60%. The EU is supporting the industrialization effort with EUR 135 million, and production capacity in Herøya is set to grow to 500 megawatts by the end of 2026. This is a crucial, but not yet completed, step.
Competitors from China will have an advantage in terms of pure hardware costs. Nel, on the other hand, is focusing on higher efficiency, durability, and automated manufacturing. Partnerships with Samsung E&A, Saipem, and Reliance in India are creating a stable ecosystem for large-scale projects. However, the surprising departure of CEO Håkon Volldal in mid-June raises questions. Although the board of directors emphasizes that the strategy remains unchanged, a leadership change during the market launch of a key technology poses a risk investors should not ignore. The coming quarters will show whether the PA Series actually delivers the hoped-for boost. The stock is currently trading at around NOK 2.19.
dynaCERT: The Pragmatic Hydrogen Approach for the Transition Economy
In reality, the energy transition is less spectacular than it is often portrayed. While politicians discuss hydrogen highways and industrial conglomerates invest billions in new infrastructure, transportation companies are struggling with skyrocketing diesel costs and stricter emissions regulations. This is precisely where dynaCERT comes in with its pragmatic approach.
The HydraGEN™ system is retrofitted to existing diesel engines, generates hydrogen and oxygen directly within the vehicle, and thereby improves combustion efficiency. Under new leadership, with CEO Kevin Unrath assuming operational responsibility in the spring of 2026, the company has clearly shifted its focus to scaling up and sales. The phase of pure technology development is finally coming to an end.
Vietnam serves as a strategic test market for international expansion. Following successful pilot projects at logistics centers and ports, dynaCERT secured its first production orders from a local truck logistics provider. This marks a decisive step beyond the pilot phase. The partnership with HCMUT (Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology) and a leading oil company in the country anchors the technology locally and builds trust with additional customers. At the same time, preparations are underway for Mexico, where a new distributor is set to expand the company’s market presence. The most recent installations at a global port operator in Vietnam could also serve as a reference for additional locations in the ASEAN region.
The recent CAD 5 million convertible debenture financing provides the capital needed to accelerate sales expansion in the company’s key target markets. The second strategic lever is the HydraLytica™ platform, which documents savings and, with Verra certification, opens access to the carbon credit market. The real test will come in the next few quarters. That is when the pilot projects are expected to transition into full-scale orders. The technological foundation is in place, and management has set clear goals. Now it is a matter of consistent commercial implementation. The stock is currently trading at around CAD 0.115.
Plug Power: Securing Liquidity and Operational Progress
The latest transactions with Stream US Data Centers show where Plug Power is currently focusing its efforts. Up to USD 76.5 million is being allocated to the Graham project in Texas, with USD 50 million to be paid upon completion at the end of July. In addition, approximately USD 14 million in pledged cash collateral will be released. For the New York Gateway project, the sale was divided into stages. A previous deposit of USD 6.5 million will be released, followed by a new down payment of USD 10 million. The final closing for the facilities has been postponed to March 2027 to await approvals in New York. In total, the deals will provide over USD 80 million in additional short-term liquidity. They are part of a program aimed at improving liquidity by more than USD 275 million overall.
The first quarter of 2026 delivered encouraging results. Revenue rose by 22% to USD 163.5 million, driven by a strong electrolyzer segment. The GAAP gross margin improved from -55% to -13%. In June, a 5 MW plant began operations in Denmark, which is expected to produce 550 metric tons of green hydrogen annually. Shortly thereafter, the final investment decision was made for the 50 MW Hunter Valley Hub in Australia. It is the country’s largest green hydrogen project, which is now moving into the implementation phase. The global project pipeline now totals over USD 8 billion, with major contracts in Portugal, Spain, and Canada.
Operational improvements are evident, but liquidity reserves remain tight. At the end of June, only 162 million was freely available, before proceeds from sales. Management is targeting positive EBITDAS for the fourth quarter of 2026, but achieving this will depend on further cost reductions, improved plant availability, and higher service margins. Analyst opinions are divided. Price targets range from USD 1.65 to over USD 3. The next quarterly report on August 10 will show whether the operational momentum is sufficient to close the funding gap before the company runs out of cash. The stock is currently trading at around USD 2.21.
For the hydrogen sector, 2026 marks the transition from vision to commercial proof of concept. Nel ASA must now prove that its new alkaline platform actually delivers the promised cost reductions, while the change in leadership remains a source of uncertainty. dynaCERT is focusing on diesel engines with pragmatic retrofit solutions and must now scale up its production orders. Plug Power is securing short-term liquidity through asset sales, but the operational turnaround remains the biggest risk given its tight cash position.
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