HPQ Silicon: Market entry is now what counts
At HPQ Silicon, the operational focus is clearly shifting toward silicon anode materials for batteries. The company’s strategy centres on applications for drones, defence and aviation. These are followed by hydrogen and fumed silica. The strategic realignment makes the company more focused and the investment story more tangible. For investors, however, it is still not without risk, as HPQ must now demonstrate that technical successes can also translate into a robust business.
The most important asset is the stake in France’s Novacium SAS. According to the half-year financial statements as at June 30, 2026, HPQ holds 36.8% and has options to increase its stake. HPQ also holds the corresponding North American marketing rights for Novacium’s battery and hydrogen technologies.
A decisive advance was achieved with the ENDURA+ GEN4 cell. The certified configuration has a nominal capacity of 6,500 milliampere-hours or 23.4 watt-hours. In July, the cell received UL 1642 safety certification. This was followed in August by UN 38.3 transport certification. This means the cells can be shipped to customers worldwide and tested in qualification programmes. For commercialisation, this is more important than another laboratory record: interested parties can now test the technology under real operating conditions.
Initial applications already exist. The French army has ordered battery packs with GEN3 cells for its FPV drones. In September, drone manufacturer Alta Ares placed an initial order for more than 100 battery packs. Delivery was scheduled to be completed by the end of September, but it has not yet been confirmed. Whether this leads to regular repeat orders depends on the operational and qualification results.
The agreement with Aptera Motors is also attracting attention. The manufacturer of solar-powered electric vehicles intends to examine the GEN4 cells in the laboratory and assess their energy density, charging behaviour, service life and safety, among other things. This is explicitly only an evaluation agreement and not a supply commitment. Nevertheless, another potentially attractive application is opening up for HPQ alongside drones and defence: electric mobility.
Aptera’s vehicle concept relies on low energy consumption, sophisticated aerodynamics and integrated solar cells. Batteries with high energy density fit this concept: they can store more energy in a confined space, thereby improving range and vehicle efficiency. This offers HPQ the opportunity to put the technology to the test against automotive requirements.
Support is coming from the Canadian government. For developing a domestic production platform, the government has pledged up to CAD 3 million. However, the targeted 50 tonnes of anode material per year is a development goal, not installed capacity. Therefore, much remains to be proven before stable series production is established.
Hydrogen forms the second business pillar. The project is still in the development phase and should therefore be viewed for now as an additional option rather than a core value driver. In third place is Fumed Silica. The joint venture HPQ Silica Polvere, in which HPQ and PyroGenesis each hold a 50% stake, is working toward commercialisation. However, this process is progressing more slowly than originally hoped.
The stock market story thus remains speculative, but has become more tangible. Certifications, initial orders and ongoing customer tests indicate commercial demand. Confirmed deliveries, follow-up orders and the establishment of reproducible manufacturing are now crucial. If this step succeeds, HPQ has considerable leverage given its still low valuation. If successful, the share price is likely to rise significantly further. The certified GEN4 cell, the first battery orders and the external Aptera test are positives. For risk-tolerant investors, HPQ Silicon is a speculative and promising portfolio addition.
CTS Eventim: Activist brings fresh upside potential
At CTS Eventim, it is not the operating business but a new major shareholder that is fuelling expectations. The activist US investor Ananym Capital has taken a stake in Europe’s largest ticket marketer and, by its own account, sees share price upside of 50% to 100%. Its demands include a larger share buyback, greater transparency and a more stable management structure.
The initiative comes at a sensitive time. At the end of September, the incumbent CFO William Willms unexpectedly left the company with immediate effect. The shares subsequently came under heavy pressure. CEO and major shareholder Klaus-Peter Schulenberg then sent a clear signal, buying shares through his investment company for around EUR 10 million at EUR 51.93 each. The shares are now trading significantly higher again.
Operationally, the group continues to grow. In the second quarter, revenue rose by 13% to EUR 899.3 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 6.2% to EUR 106.4 million. However, the fact that profit is growing more slowly than revenue shows where work is needed: CTS Eventim must translate a larger proportion of its strong business volume into higher margins and free cash flow.
Ananym also points to the significant valuation discount to US competitor Live Nation. Even if this gap does not close completely, better communication, higher capital returns and visible efficiency improvements could support the share price. The Capital Markets Day on November 20 promises fresh momentum.
The strong market position in ticketing, the robust live entertainment business and the solid balance sheet support the investment case for CTS Eventim. Risks remain the unrest on the management board and how quickly growth can translate into higher margins. For long-term investors, the share is attractive at its current level. Pullbacks can be used to build a position in stages.
Qiagen: Is a bidding war now on the cards?
Takeover speculation is returning to Qiagen. The Swedish financial investor EQT published a binding offer of EUR 46.50 per share on Thursday. EQT is launching the offer jointly with Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund and the Canadian pension fund CPP Investment Board. The minimum acceptance threshold is 50% of the capital plus one share. Qiagen’s board is reportedly already committed to supporting the offer. However, the company is also said to have received an offer from KKR. An official bid from the American private equity firm has yet to be submitted, however.
Takeover speculation has surrounded the diagnostics group for some time. In 2020, an offer from Thermo Fisher Scientific of EUR 43 per share failed due to shareholder opposition. This time, the starting position could be more favourable: Qiagen has attractive diagnostics platforms, recurring consumable revenue and a strong position in molecular testing.
A bidding contest between EQT and KKR could drive the price further. In such a scenario, USD 55 to USD 58 per share or equivalent prices of over EUR 50 per share would be conceivable. However, investors looking to bet on a potential bidding war or a higher offer price will need patience. It is likely to be several months before a takeover is finally completed.
Conclusion
HPQ Silicon offers the greatest speculative upside. The technology is certified, initial orders have been received, and several applications are being tested. However, the crucial proof of reliable series production and recurring revenue is still outstanding. CTS Eventim has the most balanced risk-reward profile. Its core business is growing, its market position is strong, and the activist investor could initiate additional measures to enhance value. The share is therefore the most solid of the trio. Qiagen remains an event-driven takeover speculation. A potential bidding war promises additional upside, but some of this is already priced in following the share price rise. If KKR withdraws from the bidding race and financial investor EQT succeeds with its bid, the share will have hardly any further upside for the time being. On balance, HPQ suits investors willing to take risks, CTS Eventim suits long-term investors, and Qiagen suits shareholders who deliberately want to bet on a bidding race amid the ongoing takeover speculation.
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