SGL Carbon Jumps by Double Digits: How Robust Is the New Earnings Forecast?
An improved full-year outlook is bringing SGL Carbon back into investors’ focus. On Tuesday, October 6, the stock gained 10.6% on Xetra and continued its upward trend yesterday, Wednesday. The specialist in graphite and fibre-reinforced composites raised its earnings forecast following a strong third quarter. Meanwhile, the company returned to the SDAX.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are now expected to reach EUR 130 to 140 million in 2026. Previously, management had expected EUR 110 to 130 million. The midpoint of the range thus rises from EUR 120 million to EUR 135 million, an increase of 12.5%. For revenue, the company is now targeting the upper end of the unchanged range of EUR 720 to 770 million. The forecast assumes no deterioration in economic conditions.
However, the preliminary nine-month figures do not yet show any growth. Revenue fell from EUR 652.9 to approximately EUR 595 million, and adjusted EBITDA from EUR 108.6 to approximately EUR 106 million. Because the earnings decline is less severe, the margin improves on a pro forma basis from 16.6% to about 17.8%. SGL is thus earning more per euro of revenue on an operating basis, even though the overall business volume remains smaller.
Part of this development is related to the Group’s restructuring. According to the company, the discontinuation of unprofitable activities in the carbon fibre business weighed on revenue performance in the first half of the year. At the same time, reduced costs and a changed product mix improved results in the Fibre Composites division. In this case, lower revenue can go hand in hand with a more economically sound structure. The key question remains whether the remaining activities will operate more profitably in the long term.
However, earnings quality warrants a closer look. In the first half of the year, SGL received compensation payments from semiconductor customers totaling EUR 28.7 million, which were recognized in earnings. These payments are related to adjusted purchase obligations in existing supply contracts. While such payments bolster earnings, they do not indicate correspondingly strong current demand. Based solely on the recent upward revision of the forecast, it is not possible to determine their contribution to further improvement.
The return to the SDAX also increases visibility on the capital market. SGL is replacing Wüstenrot & Württembergische after the financial Group applied to be transferred to the over-the-counter market. However, the higher earnings forecast provides a clearer operational driver for today’s price jump. Index inclusion can generate attention; long-term valuation still depends on earnings and cash flows.
The price pattern has also improved. The stock is trading above the moving averages shown on the daily chart, which range between approximately EUR 4.2 and 4.5. Early-summer highs lie in the EUR 5.5 to 5.7 range. The recovery could initially face resistance there. In the event of setbacks, the zone around EUR 4.8 to 5.0, which was recently breached, would serve as an initial reference point.
The full nine-month results will be released on November 5. Then, segment performance and cash flow will need to show just how sustainable the improvement actually is. The higher forecast bolsters the recovery outlook but does not yet prove sustained growth from ongoing operations.
RE Royalties: Capital for the Energy Transition
The electricity sector continues to face a structural investment cycle: electrification, data centres, and artificial intelligence applications are dramatically increasing the demand for predictable generation and storage capacity. In the US, approximately 86 GW of new power plant capacity is expected to be added by 2026, with solar energy, battery storage, and wind power dominating the expansion. RE Royalties positions itself not as an operator but as a capital provider for the relevant project developers. The company provides financing and, in return, receives long-term, revenue-based profit shares—royalty-based financing. This reduces the direct construction and operational risk, while the company participates in the project’s future earnings.
According to its own figures, RE Royalties has invested more than CAD 80 million since its founding and now holds more than 100 revenue-sharing interests in solar, wind, hydroelectric, storage, and biogas projects in North and South America as well as Asia. The reported return on capital employed of over 19% per annum underscores the model’s attractiveness, but also reflects the higher risks associated with smaller, individually structured financings. The most recent dividends of CAD 0.04 per share are remarkable for a growth-oriented micro-cap stock, but should be viewed in relation to liquidity, financing costs, and future investment commitments. The key question remains whether recurring project cash flows will sustainably cover the dividend payments.
The focus has recently been on the partnership with Solaris Energy. Following an additional tranche of USD 0.8 million in February, RE Royalties has further expanded the financing of its portfolio. Through a non-binding letter of intent, the commitment can be significantly expanded in the future. Through such framework agreements with expansion options, RE Royalties can secure future cash flows for at least 25 years. However, the economic impact will only materialize once the letters of intent become binding agreements and the plants are connected to the grid on schedule. Project delays, higher interest rates, weaker electricity prices, or counterparty risks therefore remain key influencing factors.
At CAD 0.31 per share, the market currently values RE Royalties at only about CAD 13 million—well below the potential volume of the project pipeline. On March 27, 2026, the Executive Board therefore initiated a strategic review and retained PwC Corporate Finance. Among other things, the review will examine partnerships, co-investments, optimization of the capital structure, and potential corporate transactions. At the same time, the company cites approximately CAD 20 million in short-term letters of intent and around CAD 200 million in additional projects under review. For investors, the stock remains a speculative small-cap play: Its upside depends less on short-term sentiment than on disciplined capital allocation, binding agreements, and scaling recurring revenue.
flatexDEGIRO Loses 7%: Why the Market Remains Skeptical Despite Record Profits
The market is growing increasingly skeptical about the future earnings outlook for flatexDEGIRO. On Tuesday, October 6, the stock once again fell sharply by more than 7% on Xetra and continued the downward trend that began in September, yesterday, Wednesday. In addition to high expectations for the upcoming quarterly results, disappointing industry news is weighing on sentiment.
According to the latest dpa-AFX market report, ODDO BHF considers average market estimates for the third quarter slightly too high. Goldman Sachs had already lowered its price target from EUR 51.0 to 49.0 in early October, though it maintained its “Buy” recommendation. Analyst Oliver Carruthers justified the lower valuation based on the company’s comparatively high dependence on interest rate trends. As a result, the assumptions underlying the current valuation are now coming under closer scrutiny.
As early as October 2, the British IG Group had weighed on the European brokerage sector. The competitor expects third-quarter revenue to be about 14% lower than in the previous year and lowered its full-year outlook. flatexDEGIRO also saw its share price decline as a result. While the business models differ, meaning IG’s problems cannot be directly applied to flatexDEGIRO, the warning nevertheless illustrates how quickly optimistic expectations regarding brokerage earnings can be dashed.
Additionally, a voting rights notification from BNP Paribas Asset Management Europe is weighing on the stock, as the voting rights threshold of 5% was breached. The reported stake fell from 5.066% to 4.998%. The change occurred on October 2, but was not disclosed until Tuesday of this week. There is therefore no evidence of a direct link to today’s price drop. The reported reduction amounts to approximately 0.068 percentage points compared to the previous disclosure.
There have also been recent changes in management. Following the resignation of Supervisory Board Chairman Hans-Hermann Lotter on September 10, a restructuring of the Executive Board took place on September 25. Benon Janos was appointed as an additional CEO and will take over the brokerage business. Oliver Behrens remains CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board, with responsibility for B2B and Treasury. Thomas Lindner was appointed CFO; his appointment to the Executive Board is subject to regulatory approval. For investors, the focus is now on implementing this new division of responsibilities.
Operationally, the first half of the year remains a strong foundation. Revenue rose by 22.2% to EUR 340.1 million, and consolidated net income increased by 41.1% to EUR 115.0 million. For the full year, the company is targeting approximately EUR 650 million in revenue and EUR 200 to 230 million in consolidated net income. Quarterly results will be released on October 21. They must show whether commission income and interest income continue to meet expectations.
From a technical analysis perspective, the situation remains tense. The stock is trading below all moving averages shown on the daily chart, ranging between approximately EUR 30.1 and 34.7. In the event of a recovery, EUR 28 and EUR 30 would be the initial key levels. Below the current price, previous trading ranges were between EUR 24 and EUR 25. A solid bottom has not yet become apparent.
For lasting stabilization, therefore, convincing financial results and renewed confidence in future earnings power are needed.
Following a robust third quarter, SGL Carbon has raised its EBITDA forecast to EUR 130 to 140 million, but one-time effects and declining revenue limit the improvement’s significance. RE Royalties finances renewable energy projects in exchange for long-term revenue shares, but remains speculative given its small market capitalization, non-binding project pipeline, and financing risks. flatexDEGIRO posted significantly higher revenue and profits in the first half of the year, but the decline in its share price reflects investors’ concerns about interest rate sensitivity and high expectations for quarterly results.
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