Coinbase: Will the Bitcoin Rally Wake the Sleeping Crypto Giant?
Shares of Coinbase (WKN: A2QP7J | ISIN: US19260Q1076 | Ticker: COIN) are suddenly in demand again. Since August 19, the stock has gained about 25% and was last trading at USD 185.00. Nevertheless, it is down 20% year-to-date and approximately 40% over the past year, while its market capitalization stands at around USD 49.4 billion. The main driver of the share price in recent days has been Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency rose by about 25% in just a few days and briefly surpassed USD 80,000. This surge was fueled by a weaker dollar, US Treasury bond buybacks and renewed hopes for clearer crypto regulations. President Donald Trump is urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act. This legislation is intended to define which digital assets qualify as securities or commodities and which agency has jurisdiction over them. Greater legal certainty would be a significant advantage for Coinbase.
The company was founded in 2012 and operates the largest regulated crypto exchange in the US. Coinbase generates most of its revenue from trading fees. It also generates revenue from cryptocurrency custody, staking, stablecoins, Coinbase One subscriptions, derivatives, and prediction markets. In the long term, Coinbase aims to evolve into the “Everything Exchange,” where customers can trade not only cryptocurrencies but also stocks, futures, and other financial products.
In fiscal year 2025, total revenue rose by 9% to USD 7.18 billion. Transaction revenue reached USD 4.06 billion, while subscriptions and services contributed USD 2.83 billion. Coinbase’s net income was USD 1.26 billion. Adjusted EBITDA stood at USD 2.81 billion. The first half of 2026, however, was weaker. Revenue fell by approximately 25% year-over-year to USD 2.63 billion. At the same time, the company reported a net loss of USD 754 million. In the second quarter, revenue fell 14% from Q1 to USD 1.22 billion. Transaction revenue declined 21% to USD 599 million. In contrast, revenue from subscriptions and services fell by only 5% to USD 555 million, accounting for 48% of net revenue. The net loss was USD 360 million, and adjusted EBITDA was USD 208 million.
Despite the weak figures, there are some bright spots. Coinbase increased its share of crypto trading volume from 9.1% to a record 10.3%. Revenues and contracts on the prediction markets grew by 106%. In addition, the average USDC balance on the platform reached a record high of USD 20 billion. Fundamentally, the valuation remains ambitious, as Coinbase is valued at just under seven times its 2025 revenue.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock is trading above the 20-day moving average at USD 157.36, the 50-day moving average at USD 159.43, and the 100-day moving average at USD 172.61. However, the 200-day moving average at USD 197.23 remains a key hurdle for further upward movement. Coinbase is thus a speculative bet on rising cryptocurrency prices, higher trading volumes, and greater regulatory clarity. If the Bitcoin rally continues, the stock could once again emerge from obscurity.
RE Royalties: A Highly Profitable Niche Model in the Energy Sector
Global energy demand is experiencing a sustained surge driven by AI data centers and the ongoing electrification of the world. According to the US Energy Information Administration, renewable energy accounts for approximately 93% of new US electricity capacity this year. RE Royalties (WKN: A2PN0F | ISIN: CA75527Q1081 | Ticker Symbol: Y2V) is positioning itself in this market with an innovative financing approach. The Canadian company adapts the mining industry’s royalty model by providing capital to developers and receiving a share of revenue in return. This allows the group to avoid operational risks and generate long-term, secure returns.
The scalability of this strategy is demonstrated by the recent expansion of the partnership with the American project developer Solaris Energy (WKN: A2DHUS | ISIN: US83418M1036 | Ticker Symbol: 68S). With a new tranche of USD 1 million, the financier increased its existing commitment to USD 4.8 million. At the same time, a memorandum of understanding outlines plans to expand financing to a total volume of up to USD 67.5 million. This pipeline comprises 96 solar projects with a capacity of 190 megawatts. This secures highly predictable cash flows for the company over 25 years as well as for the remainder of the projects’ operational lifespans.
To date, more than CAD 82 million has been invested in a diversified portfolio of over 130 solar, wind, and energy storage projects. Excluding completed projects, 121 projects are currently generating regular cash flows via royalties. Through structured license purchases and secured bridge financing, the capital invested generates an average return of approximately 19%. Investors participate in these attractive earnings through an annual dividend of CAD 0.04, which, at the current price of CAD 0.39 (EUR 0.24) per share, corresponds to a yield of over 10% per year. Since revenue is tied to the operators’ gross sales, the company’s own margins are shielded from rising construction costs. These steady cash flows are reinvested highly efficiently and continue to drive organic growth.
The market capitalization of approximately CAD 17 million does not fully reflect the portfolio’s value; therefore, management is reviewing the company’s strategic options in collaboration with PricewaterhouseCoopers. The scenarios range from new partnerships to a sale of the company. The latter could yield a lucrative takeover premium for investors. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock finds solid support at the 200-day moving average in the CAD 0.34 range. A sustained breakout above the CAD 0.45 mark is required for a procyclical buy signal. Until then, the stock offers risk-tolerant investors a fundamentally sound risk-reward profile.
Strategy: Will the Bitcoin Financing Bet Become a Problem or a Lever?
Strategy shares (WKN: 722713 | ISIN: US5949724083 | Ticker: MSTR) have not been an ordinary software stock for years. The company holds Bitcoin and finances additional Bitcoin purchases through the issuance of new shares, convertible bonds, and high-yield preferred shares. Its success therefore depends on the Bitcoin price and favorable capital raising. In 2025, this model performed exceptionally well. Strategy raised USD 25.3 billion and achieved a “BTC return” of 22.8%. Put simply, this metric shows how much the notional Bitcoin holdings have increased per fully diluted share. It has nothing to do with interest, dividends, or the actual stock return. As of early February 2026, Strategy held 713,502 Bitcoin, which had cost an average of USD 76,052 each.
In addition, Strategy continues to operate a business offering analytics, cloud, and AI software. In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue rose by 1.9% to USD 123 million. Recurring subscription revenue actually increased by 62.1%. However, the gross margin fell from 71.7% to 66.1%. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue grew by 11.9% to USD 124.3 million. Nevertheless, due to the falling Bitcoin price, the company incurred a net loss of USD 12.54 billion. By early May, Strategy had increased its holdings to 818,334 Bitcoin. In the second quarter, revenue rose by 6.9% to USD 122.4 million, while another net loss of USD 8.22 billion was incurred. At the end of July, the market value of Bitcoin was USD 54.77 billion, significantly below the acquisition cost of USD 63.69 billion. On a positive note, convertible bonds were reduced by 18% to USD 6.7 billion. Preferred dividends, however, weighed on the bottom line, totaling USD 400.7 million in the second quarter alone.
Rising interest rates in the bond market pose an additional risk. Five-year US Treasury bonds are currently yielding around 4.34%, while five-year German Bunds are yielding 2.93%. Investors are thus already receiving attractive returns on comparatively safe securities and are demanding a higher premium for riskier Strategy securities. The ECB already raised its key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in June, and a further increase in September is considered likely. While an immediate rate hike is not the base case scenario for the Fed, the market continues to expect at least one rate hike by the end of the year. This could make new financing and subsequent refinancing more expensive for Strategy.
As a result, the focus has recently shifted more strongly toward liquidity. Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time, issued additional MSTR shares, and increased its dollar reserve to USD 5.10 billion by August 24. In addition, USD 1.59 billion was set aside as freely available liquidity, and preferred shares worth USD 136.4 million were repurchased. Management aims to bring the company back close to its par value of USD 100. There is no traditional earnings forecast for 2026.
The company’s stock is trading at around USD 125, representing a 21% decline since the beginning of the year and a 65% decline year-to-date. The price is above the 20-day moving average of USD 101.30 and the 50-day moving average of USD 99.89. The next resistance levels are at the 100-day moving average of USD 127.34 and the 200-day moving average of USD 142.69. Only if the price moves above both of these levels would the long-term downtrend be seriously challenged.
As a regulated US crypto exchange, Coinbase is benefiting from the Bitcoin rally but remains a speculative investment due to its valuation. RE Royalties generates predictable cash flows and a double-digit dividend yield through an innovative licensing model in the renewable energy sector. Strategy’s leveraged Bitcoin bet offers high leverage, but in the current environment of rising interest rates, refinancing risks must not be overlooked.
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