Barrick Mining – Strong Numbers with a Downside
In 2025, Barrick delivered USD 16.96 billion in revenue and USD 2.73 billion in operating cash flow in the final quarter. These are strong results, driven by a soaring gold price and efficient core mines. However, the outlook for 2026 is more subdued. Production and costs are under pressure, not least due to the sale of non-core assets. Looking at the raw numbers, one sees a solid but no longer growing foundation. The market does not like stagnation, and this is precisely where the current valuation pressure lies.
The big bet is the spin-off of North American crown jewels into an independent company (“NewCo”). The goal is to shed the geopolitical risk premium and create two distinct profiles: a stable US gold company and an international copper champion. The catch is the dispute with joint venture partner Newmont. Newmont accuses Barrick of diverting resources from the joint Nevada mine. A legal dispute that jeopardizes the entire transaction and is causing unease among investors.
It has now come to light that there is a previously undisclosed royalty from Teck Resources on the promising Fourmile project. Teck receives 10–15% of net profits, a significant burden. Analysts therefore see the value of the planned IPO proceeds as falling short of earlier estimates. For investors, this means that the hoped-for valuation surge resulting from the spin-off could be smaller than expected. Barrick remains an exciting but complex investment with operational strength, strategic question marks, and now additional instability due to legacy issues. The stock is currently trading at USD 37.14.
Lahontan Gold – An Old Open-Pit Mine with Strategic Advantages
The story of Lahontan Gold is not a typical explorer’s fairy tale, but a story about locational advantages. At its heart is the Santa Fe Mine, a facility with a production history spanning 1988–1994, and that at a gold price of just USD 380 per ounce. The existing infrastructure, including water rights and its own substation, is the real asset today. In Nevada, where permits can take years to obtain and water rights are often hotly contested, the company thus possesses a foundation that significantly accelerates the path back to production.
The development of the satellite projects is exciting. West Santa Fe, just 13 km away, recently delivered results such as 36.6 m with 3.11 g of gold equivalent from surface. Such intervals not only confirm historical data but also expand the potential for low-cost oxide gold tonnage. At the same time, drilling is underway on the main property to expand the resource. The clear focus is on developing additional material for the planned processing plant. This is a pragmatic approach that relies on economies of scale.
The latest financing round of CAD 13.9 million, which was increased due to high demand, gives the company room to maneuver. The fresh capital is being channeled into exploration and operational development. At the same time, the executive board has been strengthened with experienced mining financiers. This is a clear signal that the focus is now on project implementation.
With a comprehensive exploration permit for over 700 drill holes and ongoing discussions regarding the operating permit, the structural prerequisites for a rapid ramp-up of gold production are in place. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.32.
Newmont – Record Numbers and Strategic Shift
Newmont made a financial statement in 2025. With a record free cash flow of USD 7.3 billion and a net cash balance of over USD 2 billion, the balance sheet was massively strengthened. Debt fell by USD 3.4 billion. This gives the world’s largest gold producer enormous flexibility. The fact that the stock has nevertheless been under pressure recently is due to the outlook. A planned production dip is expected in 2026. But a closer look reveals that this is not a structural issue, but a deliberate strategic investment phase to prepare the most profitable assets for the future.
Recoverable reserves are expected to drop by 10% to 5.3 million ounces in 2026. Management openly refers to this as a “trough” to complete mine sequencing and the integration of the Newcrest acquisition. What matters is where the money is going. Approximately USD 1.4 billion is being invested in the expansions of Cadia, Tanami, and the major Red Chris project. These projects stem from the multi-billion-dollar acquisition and are expected to drive production growth again, starting in 2027. This is not a retreat, but a deliberate focus on the high-value gold reserves in the ground, the so-called “value ounces.”
Under new CEO Natascha Viljoen, capital allocation will become significantly more disciplined. In addition to the increased dividend, share buybacks are continuing. Of the USD 6 billion program, USD 2.4 billion remains. Management is prioritizing not only growth but also tangible value returns. The current operational pause is calculated to secure margins in the long term. Those who recognize the strong balance sheet, the strategic realignment, and the potential for rising cash flows starting in 2027 will find a compelling entry point here. The stock currently trades at USD 95.80.
The correction in the gold market presents a strategic entry opportunity for long-term investors. Barrick Mining remains a complex value investment whose upside potential hinges on the resolution of the legal dispute with Newmont and the successful spin-off. Lahontan Gold stands out as a pure Nevada play with an accelerated production timeline thanks to existing infrastructure. Newmont, on the other hand, is using the operational breather to consistently strengthen its portfolio and is already rewarding shareholders with a disciplined return on capital.
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