Bayer: The End of a Billion-Dollar Nightmare?
The ongoing billion-dollar legal battle over the alleged cancer risks of the weed killer Roundup has taken a fundamental turn for Bayer. In a landmark ruling, the US Supreme Court decided by a clear majority of 7 to 2 votes that US federal law takes strict precedence over the conflicting laws and warning requirements of individual states. Since the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) consistently classifies glyphosate as non-carcinogenic and consequently does not require cancer warnings on packaging, this national requirement effectively supersedes state-specific labeling requirements.
For the Leverkusen-based DAX-listed company, this ruling represents the long-awaited legal milestone: the decision retroactively strips the vast majority of pending and future US damage claims, which are based on an alleged lack of warning, of their legal basis. The stock market reacted promptly to the end of the immediate existential threat, causing Bayer’s share price to surge by over 20% in early July immediately after the ruling was announced. Now the vulture funds are becoming active again. The private equity firm Apollo has secured a multi-billion-dollar stake in Bayer, giving the battered company further financial breathing room. The court hearing for the supplementary USD 7.25 billion US class-action settlement is now scheduled for August—we are keeping our fingers crossed! Analysts on the LSEG platform are sensing a turnaround: UBS rates the stock “Buy” with a price target of EUR 52, JPMorgan rates it “Overweight” at EUR 50, and mwb research rates it “Buy” at EUR 65. The consensus price target rises to EUR 54.25. That is something, at least!
Vidac Pharma: Patent Strength, Study Progress, and New Partnerships as Price Drivers
And once again, Vidac Pharma is making waves! Currently, this small, innovative biotechnology company is emerging as one of the most exciting stories in the field of innovative cancer therapies. The approach is not a full-scale attack on the tumour, but rather a targeted disruption of its energy supply. The idea is based on the Warburg effect—a metabolic mechanism that makes cancer cells virtually immortal through the enzyme hexokinase-2 (HK2) and gives them a sustained growth advantage. The drug candidate VDA-1102 specifically breaks this link, deprives tumour cells of their energy, activates programmed cell death, and simultaneously supports the body’s own immune defence.
This opens up the opportunity for a platform technology that could be used far beyond individual cancer indications and addresses a global oncology market worth well over USD 200 billion. On the operational front, a decisive milestone was achieved in June with the on-schedule completion of patient recruitment for the Phase 2b trial in high-risk actinic keratosis, after all 39 patients were enrolled as planned. Particularly positive: no serious treatment-related side effects have been reported to date, so the market is eagerly awaiting the expected topline data. Swiss industry giants Roche and Novartis are also increasingly focusing on collaborations and in-licensing programs that target key enzymes of glycolysis as part of the “Cancer Metabolism” megatrend.
At the same time, Vidac is driving forward its international expansion and plans to join the renowned life sciences network Quest for Health in Strasbourg, whose 65 member companies have raised more than EUR 220 million in growth capital over the past three years. This significantly improves access to pharmaceutical partners, scientific collaborations, and institutional investors. The company is consistently strengthening its intellectual property and most recently received another important patent in Canada for its proprietary classes of active ingredients, thereby further expanding its technological exclusivity. Especially in times of expiring blockbuster patents, the pharmaceutical industry’s demand for innovative platform technologies with robust patent protection is rising significantly. Analysts at Sphene Capital therefore continue to see considerable upside potential and confirm a price target of EUR 4.10 over the next 36 months. For risk-aware investors, the stock thus remains a promising turnaround and growth story with several potential catalysts in the coming quarters.
Evotec: A Severe Profit Warning Sends the Stock to New Lows
Hamburg-based drug discovery specialist Evotec has been hit hard by another major setback. The company has significantly lowered its annual forecast and now expects revenue of only EUR 570 to 610 million for 2026, down from the previous range of EUR 700 to 780 million. At the same time, adjusted EBITDA has slipped clearly into negative territory and is now projected to be between negative EUR 70 and 105 million. The main causes are deferred revenue from existing partnerships, lower contributions from new deals, and overall weaker revenue expectations. The stock market reacted sharply yesterday, sending the stock down to a new 52-week low of EUR 3.19. It remains to be seen whether the current “Horizon” future program, based on efficiency gains, cost cuts, portfolio restructuring, and increased use of AI, will truly deliver EUR 75 million in savings. The promising technical rebound of recent weeks has come to an abrupt end following the ad hoc announcement.
BioNTech: Now Moderna Wants Its German Manufacturing Sites
Another report from Mainz. BioNTech’s COVID-19 competitor, Moderna, is positioning itself and exploring the possibility of taking over BioNTech’s production facilities in Germany that are set to become available. This could mark a revival of idled capacity. CEO Stéphane Bancel is exploring political support for this in Berlin and makes it clear that a takeover would be more attractive than an expensive new construction project. There is even talk of continuing to employ BioNTech staff should a deal be reached. However, a more stable political environment remains a prerequisite, as Moderna calls for clear guidelines and certainty in long-term planning for the industry. Criticism is directed in particular at the planned Cost Containment Act, which could place an additional burden on the pharmaceutical industry. At the same time, Bancel warns of a strategic setback: without countermeasures, Europe risks losing its mRNA production capacity, while China ramps up production. Since the anticipated resignation of the founding couple Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, BioNTech has been trading in a narrow sideways range between EUR 73 and 95; the LSEG Refinitiv consensus price target is USD 127.65, representing 42% upside potential. Perhaps this deal will inject new momentum!
Sector rotation is picking up speed: A surprise development from the US, of all places, is providing a tailwind, as a Supreme Court ruling in Bayer’s favour shifts market sentiment. At the same time, Moderna is setting a strategic course with aggressive deal-making, while BioNTech and Evotec are in the midst of a profound restructuring. Vidac Pharma could achieve a breakthrough with the expected results of its current study.
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