- Seasonal optimism and strong holiday sales have pushed Shopify’s (TSX:SHOP) stock up over 45 per cent year-to-date and 35% higher than last holiday season
- Q3 revenue hit $2.8 billion (32 per cent YoY growth), beating forecasts and maintaining strong free cash flow, even after a brief pullback from October highs
- Record $14.6 billion in Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales and raised Q4 outlook help position Shopify as a major e-commerce player
- Shopify stock (TSX:SHOP) last traded at C$226.91
As the holiday lights sparkle, Shopify (TSX/NASDAQ:SHOP) is riding the wave of the Santa Claus rally—could this festive surge be a gift that keeps on giving for investors?
First, what is the Santa Claus rally?
It’s a seasonal phenomenon where stock markets often see a boost during the last week of December through the first two trading days of January. Historically, this uptick is attributed to factors like holiday optimism, lighter trading volumes, and institutional investors adjusting positions before year-end. While not guaranteed, it’s a trend that savvy investors watch closely.
Enter Shopify. This Ottawa-based e-commerce giant is a high-momentum growth stock powering millions of businesses worldwide. After a brief dip earlier this fall, Shopify has shown strong fundamentals and renewed investor confidence. Its performance often mirrors broader trends in online retail and consumer spending, making it a bellwether for tech and growth-focused portfolios.
The numbers tell the story
SHOP stock is up more than 45 per cent year-to-date and 35 per cent higher than last holiday season. Historically, Shopify has benefited from this seasonal rally—last year’s bump from late November through early January was notable, and this year’s surge is even stronger. After hitting an all-time high in October 2025, the stock pulled back following Q3 earnings, creating what some see as a potential buying opportunity.
Those Q3 results were far from weak: US$2.8 billion in revenue, up 32 per cent year-over-year, following 31 per cent growth in Q2. While slightly below market expectations given Shopify’s lofty valuation, the company beat its own sales growth forecast, maintained strong free cash flow, and raised its outlook for Q4. That’s resilience in action.
And the holiday shopping data? Shopify merchants achieved a record US$14.6 billion in sales over Black Friday-Cyber Monday, up 27 per cent from last year. Nearly 95,000 merchants had their best-selling day ever during that weekend—a clear sign of Shopify’s entrenched role in global commerce.
The Bottom Line
Shopify combines strong fundamentals, seasonal momentum, and a leadership position in e-commerce. While valuation remains high, its growth trajectory and operational strength make it a compelling candidate for deeper due diligence. If you’re looking for exposure to tech-driven retail and want to capitalize on the Santa Claus rally, Shopify deserves a closer look.
About Shopify
Shopify provides internet infrastructure for commerce. The company’s solutions power millions of businesses in more than 175 countries, including household names such as Mattel, Gymshark, Heinz, FTD, Netflix, Kylie Cosmetics, SKIMS and Supreme.
Shopify stock (TSX:SHOP) last traded at C$226.91.
Join the discussion: Find out what everybody’s saying about this e-commerce stock on the Shopify Inc. Bullboard, and check out the rest of Stockhouse’s stock forums and message boards.
Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.