Almonty: Almost 200% upside potential after the correction
Shares in Almonty Industries are currently not for the faint-hearted. From over EUR 20 in April, they fell to below EUR 8. The company’s fundamental and operational data point to what could be a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity. The tungsten market remains tight, and Almonty is benefiting from this environment. In the latest CEO newsletter, Lewis Black highlights persistently high tungsten prices and the substantial differences between the Chinese and Western markets. China’s restrictive export licensing system largely prevents tungsten intermediate products from reaching the Western spot market. Individual shipment approvals are nowhere near sufficient to meet demand. This leaves supplies to Western industries heavily dependent on political decisions in Beijing, creating attractive prospects for Almonty. With its producing mines in Portugal and South Korea, the company benefits from the growing strategic importance of an independent tungsten supply outside China.
Black is also optimistic about operations. The CEO has particularly high expectations for the Gentung project in the US state of Montana. Budget planning is complete, and the deposit is considered solid. The site also already has historical waste rock piles and a processing plant, allowing Almonty to build on existing infrastructure. Production is set to start once the necessary permits are in place. Black sets out an ambitious goal: Almonty aims to become the first company to produce tungsten in the US again in around 30 years. He expects to begin operations sooner than competing projects. Black also emphasises tungsten’s particular strategic importance. Unlike rare earths, he says, global deposits are limited, and additional mining capacity is difficult to establish. At the same time, the metal is indispensable to numerous key industries. In management’s view, this combination of limited supply and high industrial importance strengthens Almonty’s long-term growth prospects.
Bank of America and Stifel see substantial upside potential in Almonty Industries shares. Following the Capital Markets Day in New York, Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy recommendation and described the recent share price weakness as fundamentally unjustified. By 2029, annual tungsten production is expected to increase more than ninefold compared with 2025 to around 5,600 tonnes. Earnings forecasts are correspondingly optimistic. Earnings per share are expected to rise from USD 0.69 in 2026 to USD 2.76 in 2027 and USD 3.00 in 2028.
Stifel also has a Buy rating with a price target of USD 21. Compared with the current price of just over USD 8, this represents upside potential of almost 200%. Stifel expects that the expansion of the Sangdong mine in South Korea and the Panasqueira mine in Portugal could make Almonty the largest tungsten producer in the Western world by the end of 2028. Revenue is expected to rise from CAD 345.8 million in the current year to CAD 926.2 million in 2027. Further raw materials projects and the planned entry into tungsten oxide production offer additional upside potential. Both research firms see Almonty as a major beneficiary of Western industrialised nations’ efforts to reduce their dependence on Chinese tungsten supplies.
Bayer: Analysts raise price target
While Almonty shares have upside potential of over 100% before reaching their year-high, Bayer has already risen to a year high in recent weeks. At over EUR 56, the shares are trading at their highest level since 2023. Deutsche Bank sees further upside potential. On Tuesday, the analysts raised their price target for Bayer shares from EUR 60 to EUR 65 and recommended Buy.
There has recently been positive news from the US. The Leverkusen-based company has received approval for its stroke drug Asundexian from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The active substance may now be marketed in the US under the brand name Sunharbo to prevent further strokes in certain at-risk patients. Asundexian is the world’s first approved active substance in the new class of factor XIa inhibitors. The approval is based on the results of a Phase III trial involving more than 12,000 patients. The trial showed a 26% reduction in the risk of a recurrent ischaemic stroke compared with the previous standard therapy. The overall rate of major bleeding was comparable, although certain patient groups had an increased risk of bleeding. For Bayer, the approval is an important success in its pharmaceutical business. The group sees Asundexian as a potential blockbuster that could generate annual revenue of more than USD 1 billion in future. The drug could therefore help offset revenue losses from increasing competition from generics for its previous bestseller, Xarelto. Asundexian was approved in China at the end of October, while European authorities are still reviewing the application.
Singulus: Elon Musk sparks euphoria
Singulus is currently at least one of the stars of the German stock market. The reason is Elon Musk. With his space company SpaceX, he is fuelling fresh hopes for the German machinery manufacturer. An initial major order worth more than EUR 60 million could be just the beginning of a long-term partnership. mwb research sees enormous growth potential and has significantly raised its estimates. No wonder Singulus shares are currently in high demand among investors. The shares have risen by over 1,500% so far this year.
Analysts see significant growth potential for Singulus Technologies through its partnership with SpaceX and have upgraded the stock to Buy, raising the price target. Elon Musk’s aerospace group has ordered a turnkey production facility for heterojunction solar cells (HJT) worth more than EUR 60 million from Singulus. Delivery is scheduled for the first half of 2027. The solar cells are to be used for SpaceX’s Starmind satellite programme in Texas. In the long term, SpaceX plans to build up production capacity of more than 100 GW annually. According to a model calculation by mwb, this implies a theoretical market potential for production facilities of EUR 7 to 20 billion. However, facility costs are likely to fall as scale increases. In the analysts’ assessment, Singulus could nevertheless supply facilities for up to 25 GW of production capacity. This could result in cumulative orders of well over EUR 1 billion over the coming years. The first order alone amounts to more than 70% of the annual revenue expected for 2026. The collaboration could therefore trigger a significant growth boost for Singulus.
The forecasts from mwb research for the coming years are correspondingly optimistic. Following revenue of just EUR 48.3 million in 2025, the analysts expect an increase to EUR 86.9 million in 2026. Revenue is expected to reach EUR 150.4 million as early as 2027 and climb to EUR 285.8 million in 2028. This would mean Singulus almost sextupling its revenue within three years. At the same time, profitability is expected to improve significantly. EBITDA is likely to rise from minus EUR 9.1 million in 2025 to EUR 4.7 million in the current year. For 2027, the analysts forecast EUR 12.3 million, rising to EUR 27.3 million in 2028. For net result, after a loss of EUR 14.1 million in 2025, they still expect a small loss of EUR 0.7 million in 2026. In 2027, Singulus is expected to return to profitability with a net profit of EUR 4.3 million. For 2028, the analysts already expect a profit of EUR 13.9 million. The decisive factors for further development will be how quickly SpaceX implements its ambitious expansion plans and what share of the follow-up orders Singulus actually receives.
Conclusion
The correction in Almonty is painful. But the market and operational performance still appear to be intact. If earnings per share do indeed reach USD 2.76 next year, the stock would currently be a real bargain. For Singulus, a correction following the sharp rise in the share price would be no surprise. Bayer appears to be genuinely putting the glyphosate fiasco behind it.
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