OHB: Share price gain of over 40% – will the next breakout succeed now?
The shares of Bremen-based aerospace group OHB were once again among the notable winners on the German stock market this week. Up more than 8% on Monday alone, the stock continued its strong recovery. Since October 14, the share price had already risen by over 40%. Since the start of the year, the shares had gained around 85%, while the increase over 52 weeks was approximately 108%. However, a significant resistance zone was drawing closer.
The group provided fresh news with an investment in MediaMobil Communication GmbH. OHB agreed to a strategic partnership with the Bremen-based company and announced it would acquire a 25% stake as part of a capital increase. This was intended to strengthen satellite communications capabilities and expand the range of services along the value chain.
MediaMobil develops and operates mobile communications solutions for demanding operational environments, including disaster regions and the high seas. The partners saw additional opportunities in crisis and emergency communications as well as in the defence sector. The collaboration was not new: the two companies had been working on solutions for rocket launches from the North Sea since 2020. The investment therefore deepened an existing collaboration. OHB did not disclose a purchase price or specific expected earnings contributions in the announcement. Key figures for a financial assessment of the investment were therefore initially lacking.
From a technical analysis perspective, the picture had meanwhile improved significantly compared with the previous month. Following the decline over recent months, the correction low stood at just under EUR 155. A dynamic rebound began from there. Most recently, the stock returned to a price of around EUR 225. This recouped some of the previous losses. The rapid recovery showed that buyers were buying more strongly again after the period of weakness.
The zone between EUR 230 and EUR 240 now became particularly decisive. This area had repeatedly served as support in February and March as well as in July and early August. After the break on August 21, the shares came under further pressure. On a renewed approach, the former support could therefore act as resistance. In addition, the 100-day moving average reinforced this area. It currently stands at around EUR 236.
The recovery above the shorter-term moving averages was positive. The 20-day moving average stood at approximately EUR 180, while the 50-day moving average was at EUR 186. Both were now significantly below the share price. The large gap also showed how far the rapid recovery had already taken the stock away from its short-term trend base. Above the resistance zone, the 200-day moving average remained another important hurdle at around EUR 264. Reaching that level would require a further increase of around 17% from the latest price level. The nine-month results announced for November 12 represented the next fundamental test.
Lahontan Gold with significant project value
Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks support international gold demand from central banks and long-term investors. Demand for gold is expected to surge further due to the looming sovereign bond crisis. Following recent share price pullbacks, companies such as Lahontan Gold are becoming attractive. The explorer is developing the former Santa Fe gold mine in Nevada and aims to bring it back into production. The key factor is the PEA from the latest model calculation, which the company recently published. The preliminary economic assessment (PEA) dated October 14 assumes USD 3,600 per ounce of gold and USD 49 per ounce of silver in the base case. Based on this assumption alone, the after-tax net present value (NPV) at a discount rate of 5% is USD 820 million (EUR 732 million), corresponding to an internal rate of return (IRR) of 40.1% p.a.
The study assumes 11 years of active mine operations followed by 1 year of residual leaching of the last ores mined. This is expected to generate USD 3.68 billion in revenue and USD 1.32 billion in after-tax net cash inflow. This compares with initial capital expenditure of USD 172 million, including a USD 22.2 million contingency, and sustaining capital expenditure of USD 158.2 million over the mine life. With all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of USD 2,250 per ounce, the modelled payback period is 3.7 years.
The initial production profile for the first three years envisages 22,900, 39,700 and 47,700 ounces of gold equivalent according to plan, before an average of 112,500 ounces is to be produced in years four to eleven. Lahontan expects construction permits in 2027, after completing the necessary environmental baseline studies. However, the company still has to submit the final mine operating plan for this.
Lahontan is currently still awaiting official approval of the initiated Emergent Metals acquisition. Following completion of the acquisition of the immediately neighbouring site, the total contiguous land package would cover more than 93 km². The additional project control after the acquisition, along with the elimination of royalty payments, significantly improves subsequent exploration and growth opportunities. At CAD 0.28 (EUR 0.18) and with 432.46 million shares, the current market capitalisation is around CAD 121 million (approximately EUR 77 million), well below the calculated project value.
Brazil in a sell-off after the election: Petrobras, Itaú and Nu Holdings
Brazil’s stock market experienced a sharp shift in sentiment on Monday. Following the run-off election, banks, energy companies and numerous small caps were heavily sold off. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won on Sunday with 51.79% of the vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro. Investors had previously bet on a change of government and more business-friendly policies. Hopes for greater fiscal discipline and deregulation will now be reassessed in light of the election outcome.
The shock was particularly evident in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF. The fund temporarily lost more than 26% compared with Friday’s price. A strong rebound then followed: from an opening price of around USD 31.70, EWZ recovered to over USD 34, at times gaining more than 8%. At around USD 34.30, however, it was still down about 19% compared with Friday’s price of USD 42.59. EWZ is a heavyweight among Brazil ETFs. BlackRock put the fund’s assets before the election on October 23 at just under USD 14 billion. Annual charges are 0.59%. The September factsheet listed 46 holdings; financial stocks accounted for around 36% of the portfolio.
The two Petrobras share classes alone together accounted for about 14.5%. The sell-off thus hit several particularly heavily weighted sectors at once. Technically, the preceding election rally reversed abruptly. EWZ had risen significantly from the start of 2025 to April 2026, before a correction followed through June. From October 2 to 5, EWZ jumped about 12% after the first round of voting. The latest slump closed this upward gap. At the same time, a large new downward gap emerged. The price also gapped below the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, which subsequently stood above it.
The area between USD 33 and USD 35 now came into focus. The ETF had already stabilised there in June and August. A sustained recovery above the USD 35 mark would improve the prospects of a further rebound. However, the initial rebound alone did not yet confirm a new upward trend.
Among individual stocks, the focus was on Itaú Unibanco. The US ADR fell more than 25% from Friday’s close to Monday’s low, then traded back to USD 7.70. Behind the name is one of Latin America’s most significant private banking groups. At the end of the second quarter, Itaú reported total assets of around BRL 3,227 billion and more than 90,000 employees.
The distributions also deserve attention. For the local preference share ITUB4, at a reference price of about BRL 42, the official gross payments over the past 12 months, including special payments, produced a calculated trailing distribution yield of about 7.5%. This metric must be distinguished from a forecast and from the net yield on the US ADR.
The state-controlled oil group Petrobras fell about 17% from Friday’s open and over 18% to the day’s low before it began to recover. Despite the setback, its share price in USD was still up approximately 90% since the start of the year. Based on the annual dividend recorded by data service StockAnalysis, the trailing yield most recently stood at around 5%. Investment policy, fuel prices and distributions remain closely linked to political decisions here.
Nu Holdings, Nubank’s parent company, was also among the hardest hit. The decline from Friday’s close to the low was approximately 23%. Following the initial shock, the price subsequently recovered from its opening level. The company reported 139 million customers and net profit of around USD 1.1 billion for the second quarter. The sell-off thus also hit a profitable provider with strong growth. The Brazilian heatmap also showed significant losses at Banco Bradesco, Santander Brasil and Banco BTG Pactual (BPAC3). The stock exchange operator B3 (B3SA3) was down around 36% at times. Beef exporter Minerva Foods (BEEF3) fell more than 20%.
Commodities company Vale and electronics group WEG were, by contrast, at times in positive territory in local trading. For international investors, that was only part of the picture: a weaker real further weighed on returns measured in US dollars. Brazilian shares and their US ADRs could therefore diverge significantly. Alongside share prices, developments in the real and the government’s economic policy signals thus also came into focus.
Conclusion
OHB recorded a share price gain of over 40% following a strategic investment, but is approaching a significant technical resistance zone ahead of its quarterly results. Lahontan Gold is advancing the Santa Fe mine in Nevada, whose estimated net present value of USD 820 million significantly exceeds the current market capitalisation of around USD 87 million. Petrobras, Itaú, and Nu Holdings came under heavy selling pressure after the election shock in Brazil, but are showing signs of stabilisation again after initial rebounds.
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