The Suspicion: Are Agents Making Software Obsolete?
“You could just buy it now”—with this slogan, SAP promoted the launch of Business One shortly after the turn of the millennium. The phrase struck a chord: Business One systematically opened the Walldorf-based company’s product portfolio to small and medium-sized businesses for the first time and, measured purely by customer count, became the best-selling ERP product in the company’s history. Over 83,000 business customers and more than 1.2 million daily users in over 170 countries speak for themselves. The success was based on a model featuring approximately 850 sales partners, over 500 industry-specific adaptations, and a cost-effective entry point that allows companies to start with just a single user license.
Today, the DAX-listed company’s focus is on its cloud business, which is growing significantly faster than its traditional software licensing business. The order backlog in the cloud segment rose by 27% to EUR 22.9 billion in the second quarter. As recently as this spring, there were doubts that Germany’s largest software manufacturer would be able to deliver such figures. Triggered in part by the release of new AI tools such as Anthropic’s Claude Cowork, a theory began circulating on the stock markets that AI agents could soon render traditional enterprise software obsolete—or even program it themselves. The “Software as a Service” (SaaS) model was said to be on the brink. Scenarios of a “SaaS apocalypse” were making the rounds. SAP’s stock lost about 28% of its value in the first quarter.
However, the suspicion did not hold up to closer scrutiny. The theory overlooks just how deeply SAP is embedded in its customers’ core processes. Migrating away from decades-old enterprise-standard ERP systems is not a weekend project for an AI agent—that is, for a tool that not only learns as it goes, but also sets its own goals and relentlessly works toward achieving them, if necessary, by writing code itself. Furthermore, with its Business AI Platform, SAP is itself positioned as a beneficiary of the trend, rather than merely its target. The latest figures further exonerate the prime suspect. Revenue rose by 9% to EUR 9.88 billion, and earnings per share by about 30% to EUR 1.89. CEO Christian Klein, who had initially unsettled the market with his own statements on AI, purchased 2,435 shares at EUR 133.56 each on the day the quarterly results were released. Since then, the share price has recovered from around EUR 140 to EUR 183—a rally that has noticeably reduced upside potential, as there is not much room left to reach analysts’ average price target of EUR 198.
The Unknown Quantity: AI in the Engine Room of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses
Miivo AI from Vancouver is positioning itself exactly where SAP began with Business One more than two decades ago. Here, too, the focus is on small and medium-sized businesses—only this time, they are not primarily getting software, but rather artificial intelligence that analyzes financial and operational data in real time, identifies business opportunities, and monitors acquisition costs, sales performance, machine reliability, customer and employee churn rates, as well as reviews on Google, Instagram and Reddit. CEO Alexander Damouni describes this as “full visibility of what is going on”—complete transparency into what is happening right now. The tools are suitable “for any type of business”. A smoothie bar operator, for example, could be alerted in real time if fruit prices rise and react immediately.
In the first half of the year, the company launched three products that have already attracted more than 3,000 users. The target audience consists primarily of companies with revenue of USD 5-10 million, though Damouni notes that significantly larger clients are, of course, also welcome. The pricing model ranges, depending on scope and customer needs, from free to USD 1,299 per month. Based on the latest financial report from February 2026, recurring revenue was around USD 10,000 per month and is on the verge of the so-called “hockey stick effect”—that is, a sharp surge in growth. One potential bestseller could be the paid AI agent AI CFO, which integrates directly with a company’s accounting software. It autonomously monitors cash flow, margins, performance, and utilization rates for specific activities, processes, or departments and proactively suggests measures to optimize profits or minimize risks. Should juice bars raise their prices when avocados, bananas, and pears become more expensive? And if so, by how much? The AI CFO has the answer—and, unlike a human colleague, it works around the clock.
An initial sales partnership is already in place with a regional accounting provider that serves over 14,000 small and medium-sized businesses—following the same model that once made SAP’s Business One a success through its reseller model. Analysts simply have not discovered Miivo as yet. The share price of CAD 0.45 (EUR 0.28) and the market capitalization of around CAD 16 million represent, to stay with the metaphor, more the value of a smoothie startup than that of a rising star in the AI sky. Investors who get in early stand to benefit from a potential re-rating, but must accept the risk of sharp price fluctuations typical of micro-caps—that is, very small publicly traded companies.
The Crash: How Master Agent C3.ai Fell from Grace
Start small and make it big—in theory, that is the natural path for up-and-coming companies. But the reality, especially in the US, often looks different, as the drama surrounding C3.ai shows. At its initial public offering in December 2020, the offering price was USD 42, corresponding to a valuation of around USD 4 billion. The share price doubled on the very first day of trading, and two weeks later, it closed at nearly USD 180—at its peak, this corresponded to a market capitalization of about USD 17 billion. Much of the early praise was likely due primarily to the name of founder Thomas Siebel. He had once led the software company Siebel Systems—named after him—to success and sold it to Oracle in 2006 for about USD 6 billion. Not much remains of the Siebel and AI euphoria today. The share is currently trading at around USD 10.
The core of the business model is a comprehensive infrastructure centred on “Agentic AI” (agent-based AI). Accordingly, the flagship product is called the C3 Agentic AI Platform. It is, if you will, an entire intelligence agency that coordinates the interaction of query, programming, and testing agents to improve supply chains, production, sales, and websites. Unlike Miivo, the focus is clearly on large corporate clients such as Shell, which uses the off-the-shelf platform for predictive maintenance, for example. However, the Redwood City, California-based company failed to live up to the early hype. In the past fiscal year, revenue plummeted by about 36% to USD 250 million, and the net loss totaled USD 470 million. To turn the company around, founder Siebel, who was at times severely limited by a serious illness, took back operational leadership himself in May following a failed sales restructuring. The first immediate measure is a downsizing plan. Reducing the workforce from 1,075 to 700 employees is expected to save USD 135 million annually.
Officially, the goal remains to operate profitably on an adjusted basis starting in the second half of fiscal year 2027. The analyst consensus is significantly more cautious. Current estimates suggest that a sustainable break-even is more likely to occur around fiscal year 2029/2030. Many ratings are “Hold” or “Sell,” and price targets are mostly near current levels, leaving little room for upside. For investors, this could be a turnaround opportunity, though it is likely to be a test of patience.
The Showdown: Three Agents, Three Valuations, One Unresolved Question
For Miivo AI, SAP, rather than C3.ai, should serve as the more relevant blueprint: the Canadian company is where the German software giant once was with Business One—at the beginning of a push into the SMB market, this time with AI rather than traditional software. The valuations show just how far apart the three stocks are in their respective cycles: Despite its downturn, C3.ai still commands a market capitalization of more than USD 1.5 billion, while Miivo AI, an emerging newcomer in the AI-agent thriller, is worth less than one-hundredth of that amount. Once the market takes notice of this investment story, a re-rating could be in store. SAP, meanwhile, with a market capitalization of more than EUR 200 billion and its own AI ambitions, sits in a league of its own—even if the slump in the spring and the recent price rally show that even such a heavyweight is not immune to agent-driven swings in sentiment.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a “Transaction”). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.
The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.
Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.
The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.
The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.
Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.