Structural Supply Shortage in Antimony
The scarcity of antimony is the direct result of China’s long-term industrial policy strategy, which has shifted its dominance from raw material extraction to highly refined downstream segments. With the introduction of a comprehensive licensing system in 2024, export volumes of antimony-containing compounds fell significantly. The oligopolistic market structure with only a few players and the low price elasticity of this specialty metal subsequently led to sharply rising market prices. While antimony was still trading at around USD 5,900 per ton in early 2024, prices surged to a record high of nearly USD 60,000 in 2025 before consolidating at around USD 40,000 today.
According to analyses by the International Energy Agency (IEA), this situation is driven by a deficit fueled by exploding demand in the photovoltaic sector for solar glass and the strategic buildup of government reserves. To address this tight supply situation, the US government has launched Project Vault with USD 12 billion in financing from the Export-Import Bank. The goal is to create a national reserve for critical minerals. This national effort is elevating antimony from a niche specialty metal to a strategically relevant asset class.
Antimony Resources Stands Out With Its Bald Hill Project
Amid this market shift, Antimony Resources’ Bald Hill project in the Canadian province of New Brunswick has positioned itself as one of the most promising properties in North America. The project boasts exceptionally high ore grades, which set it apart from most other global deposits. Recent drilling has confirmed massive mineralization extending over a strike length of 700 m. While average North American projects typically exhibit grades of less than 1% antimony, Antimony Resources’ geologists are demonstrating a completely different scale. In the core zones, geologists encountered sections yielding grades of 11.7% Sb over 4.51 m and 14.91% Sb over 3.00 m. An independent technical report from last October estimates the initial potential of the main zone at around 2.7 million tons of ore, corresponding to a contained grade of over 80,000 tons of antimony.
Antimony Urgently Needed Worldwide
The urgency to bring projects like Bald Hill into production as quickly as possible is particularly evident in the Western defense industry. For companies like Lockheed Martin, antimony is an irreplaceable element used as a hardening agent in lead alloys for ammunition and in fuses. As current figures show, the arms industry is booming. Lockheed Martin has also recently significantly increased the number of guided missiles it produces. Furthermore, antimony-based semiconductors are at the heart of state-of-the-art infrared sensors used in advanced guidance systems. A contract signed by Lockheed in January 2026, worth USD 328.5 million to equip the Taiwanese Air Force, underscores this need. Since these highly sensitive applications require military-certified materials, direct access to reliable, non-Chinese primary sources has become a matter of survival for the defense giant.
While the defense industry is fueling demand, major mining companies are responding with a strategic realignment. As industry observers note, Rio Tinto is currently undergoing a transformation toward metals that are critical for the energy transition and national security. Just recently, Rio Tinto pushed through the sale of its California boron division for an estimated USD 2 billion to free up capital for the expansion of critical elements. At the same time, the mining giant is investing heavily in innovative extraction technologies such as the bio-hydrometallurgical Nuton process. By utilizing such resource-efficient technologies, Rio Tinto aims to exploit domestic deposits more efficiently and thus make a significant contribution to the West’s strategic autonomy.
Antimony Resources Perfectly Positioned For The Long Term
Taken together, these developments are creating historically unprecedented market dynamics in the antimony sector. China’s export bans have exposed weaknesses in supply chains and triggered a backlash—supply security is a top priority in both business and politics. This environment offers significant opportunities for investors. Companies like Antimony Resources are benefiting from this geopolitical tailwind. Given the first-class geology of the Bald Hill project and the desperate search by major industrial and defense conglomerates for secure supply sources, the company is emerging as an indispensable key player in the new resource architecture.
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