Capital on the stock market is not all the same. There is “dumb” money that chases short-term trends, and there is “smart” money that actually shapes markets. The alliance between Almonty Industries and Bank of America is therefore far more than a simple financing round. It is an institutional seal of approval that, via access to the wealth management arm Merrill, opens the door to US private capital and enables a re-rating. Analysts such as D.A. Davidson had already confirmed this potential before the most recent capital increase with the high-profile lead bookrunner, issuing concrete price targets of USD 12 and pointing to massive revenue growth through 2028.
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Almonty and the mechanism of institutional validation
In the commodities world, thousands of companies are vying for investors’ attention. Most are dependent on expensive venture capital. But Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) has reached a new phase through its collaboration with Bank of America. To understand the significance of this deal, one must understand the mechanism of “institutional validation,” a process already anticipated by leading analysts such as D.A. Davidson and reflected in price targets now firmly in double-digit territory.
When a major global bank subscribes to a capital increase, it is preceded by extensive due diligence. For the capital markets, this functions as a quality signal. The recent transaction indicates that Almonty’s projects and capital structure meet institutional requirements for scale and long-term growth. This assessment has been consistently supported by sell-side research. In its November update, D.A. Davidson reaffirmed its “Buy” rating and increased its price target from USD 11 to USD 12, with other analysts arriving at comparable valuations. These expectations are grounded in operating forecasts rather than sentiment. D.A. Davidson expects Almonty’s revenue to explode from an estimated USD 44 million in 2025 to an impressive USD 526 million by 2028. Following the Bank of America transaction, such assumptions have become increasingly accepted within the broader financial community.
The Merrill factor – the pipeline to big money
Perhaps the most important aspect of this partnership lies in the structure of the US financial landscape. Bank of America, through its subsidiary Merrill, is one of the largest asset managers in the world. Once a company like Almonty has received the accolade of a capital increase with Bank of America, the stock potentially becomes investable for Merrill’s huge network of advisors. This is capital seeking stability – asset managers for wealthy US clients are looking for both security and opportunities. Almonty increasingly meets these criteria. D.A. Davidson underscores this attractiveness for long-term investors with a forecast for **adjusted EBITDA, which is expected to rise to USD 336 million by 2028. Such profitability makes the stock highly relevant for institutional portfolios that focus on cash flow growth. Since Almonty now has a US listing on the Nasdaq as well as a US mine and a US office, which will become Almonty’s headquarters from 2026, the Merrill factor should quickly benefit the stock.
MP Materials as a blueprint
MP Materials shows what happens when a Western company gains strategic access to US capital. Investors there pay a premium for geopolitical security. Almonty Industries is heading toward a similar scenario with its tungsten mine in Sangdong. Tungsten is indispensable for the defense and tech industries. According to D.A. Davidson, prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 2025 and have recently risen even further. At the latest fixing in Rotterdam last Friday, the price for APT (ammonium paratungstate, an important intermediate product in tungsten processing) reached an average level of USD 812.50/MTU. As Almonty’s CEO recently stated at the International Investment Forum (IIF), mines such as Sangdong are already highly profitable at half that price. Nevertheless, Almonty’s stock is significantly undervalued compared to MP Materials and other commodity companies. Back in the fall, Oppenheimer analysts predicted a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of around 50 for MP Materials and around 17 for Almonty for 2027. Even uranium producer Cameco achieved a P/E ratio of 45 based on estimated results for 2027.
The entry of the US financial elite is a clear indication that “smart” capital sees great opportunities in Almonty’s stock. When analysts such as Matt J. Summerville of D.A. Davidson raise their price targets and predict a multiplication of EBITDA to over USD 300 million, the discrepancy between the current price and the fundamental value becomes increasingly visible. Ratings are also expected from Almonty’s new shareholder base in the coming months. These analyses are likely to point to the existing valuation thesis and expand visibility among US wealth and asset managers, including Merrill’s advisory network. Almonty is the only Western company with free delivery capacity for tungsten. While competing projects in Vietnam and Kazakhstan, which will not be able to start production for years anyway, are suffering from delays and high capital requirements, Almonty remains the only alternative. This should soon be reflected even more clearly in the share price.
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