Almonty Industries: Capitalizing on the Tungsten Crisis
When people talk about semiconductors, they are talking about silicon. When people talk about defense, they are talking about steel. Both are partly correct—but also incomplete. Because without tungsten, there are no armor systems, no munitions, and no high-performance chips. The metal hardens materials, provides protection, and dissipates heat. It is the hidden backbone of every high-tech industry. And China controls around 80% of global production. This strategic dependence has long been classified by Washington as a security risk. Starting in 2027, Chinese tungsten will be excluded from US military supply chains. Whoever can supply it then will play a dominant role in the West. Almonty Industries has understood exactly this and, with the Sangdong mine in South Korea, has established a position that is unrivaled in the long term.
The mine is up and running. Phase 1 has been in production since March, the crushing plant is certified, and the first batches have been shipped. At the same time, Almonty is drilling for molybdenum on the property. This is a metal that South Korea is running critically short of. The government in Seoul has publicly warned of supply shortages and has asked private companies for support. Almonty is seeking to assess its molybdenum resource more precisely through 26 drill holes totaling 12,000 m. The initial results confirm the historical grades. The company intends to accelerate the development of this second critical raw material. At the same time, Almonty secured USD 772.7 million in net proceeds through a convertible senior notes offering. The offering was oversubscribed several times over, which can be seen as a vote of confidence from institutional investors. And the next milestone, scheduled for June, is inclusion in the Russell indices, which will increase Almonty’s visibility among ETFs and fund managers. The effective date is June 29.
According to industry forecasts, a global supply gap in the tungsten market is already emerging this year. At precisely this moment, Sangdong is ramping up—on time, on schedule, and urgently needed. This gap is not a risk, but an opportunity. While other projects fail or take years to materialize, Almonty is already delivering. The first concentrates have been produced, and offtake agreements are in place. With Phase 1, the subsequent expansion, and upcoming projects such as the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Montana, Almonty will not only help close this gap but will also become the indispensable backbone of Western supply. Analysts are optimistic and have set price targets of up to USD 25.80. The share is currently trading at around USD 18.19.
Rheinmetall: Naval Fiasco Overshadows Record Pipeline
June 24 marked a bitter setback for Rheinmetall shares. After it became known that the German Federal Ministry of Defense intends to terminate the F126 frigate project and rely on TKMS models instead, the stock plummeted by over 17% to below the EUR 1,000 mark. Analysts at JPMorgan estimated the value of the lost contract at around EUR 12 billion. This amount calls into question the strategic logic behind the NVL acquisition. With this deal, Rheinmetall loses its “crown jewel,” which was a central pillar of its naval expansion. The sharp intraday price movement underscores just how heavily the business model has come to depend on major political projects.
This is offset by several positive announcements from other divisions. The billion-euro contract from Romania worth EUR 5.7 billion for Lynx tanks and Skyranger systems, the procurement of 23 recovery tanks for the German Armed Forces, and the strategic partnerships with Vantor for a 3D reconnaissance platform and LIG Defense underscore the breadth of the portfolio. The fact that the Group pre-financed the production of the recovery tanks underscores its operational agility. In addition, Rheinmetall issued a EUR 500 million bond in May that was 7.8 times oversubscribed. The order backlog remains at a record level of approximately EUR 73 billion, demonstrating that the company’s fundamentals remain intact despite the setbacks.
This mixed situation is reflected in analysts’ reactions. mwb research lowered its price target to EUR 1,400, though the rating remains “Neutral.” The cancellation of the F126 project also jeopardizes the company’s second-quarter order intake targets. The annual targets now appear questionable, especially since the first quarter already fell short of revenue expectations. Insider purchases by CEO Armin Papperger do signal confidence, but dependence on public procurement policy remains the greatest risk. Until a final decision on the frigates is made, the stock will remain at the mercy of news developments. The share is currently trading at around EUR 963.60.
Intel: Between Risk and Opportunity
Intel’s recent stock rally is impressive, but a closer look at the numbers also reveals risks. The foundry business continues to burn through billions, the return on equity stands at a meager 0.77%, and the interest coverage ratio is just 1.9. This is a sign of operational inefficiency. At the same time, the core CPU business is shrinking, market share is shifting to AMD, and the operating margin remains negative. The market has already priced in a successful turnaround, even though the Apple partnership will not generate revenue until 2027 at the earliest, and the 18A process is still in high-risk production. The high valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
However, the risks should not obscure the fact that Intel is in a better strategic position than it has been in years. The US government has effectively declared the company a national champion by taking a stake in it and demonstrating a clear commitment to reducing dependence on TSMC. Apple’s announcement—even if it is initially symbolic—shows that major customers are taking Intel seriously as an alternative. Added to this are initial expressions of interest from Google and Nvidia in its foundry services. Technologically, Intel is making progress. The 18A-P process has reached pilot production and offers improved performance metrics.
Its strategic importance and government backing create a solid foundation for the coming years. If the first external foundry orders arrive in 2027 as expected, the loss-making business could slowly turn a profit. The data center business is also showing growth again, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan is consistently driving the realignment forward. Intel has hit rock bottom. It is heading in the right direction, even if the road ahead remains rocky. For long-term investors who can withstand price fluctuations, this presents an exciting opportunity for the next phase of growth. Currently, one share costs around USD 132.28.
The tungsten shortage makes Almonty Industries an indispensable pillar of Western supply. The Sangdong mine is already in production, molybdenum exploration is looking promising, and analysts see ample upside potential. Rheinmetall is experiencing a major setback with the naval fiasco, but its record order backlog and broad diversification across tanks, air defense, and electronics provide support. Until the final decision on the frigates is made, however, the stock remains at the mercy of politics. Intel is in the midst of a turnaround. The foundry business is burning through billions, but government subsidies and initial interest from Apple and Google underscore its strategic role, while the technology continues to advance.
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