Tungsten, Beer and Vaccines: What Almonty Industries, Heineken and BioNTech Have in Common

The Location: Rwanda – Between Economic Miracle and Grey Area

Rwanda has rarely made headlines since the end of its bloody civil war in 1994. The last time the global public turned its attention to this small East African country was in July 2024, when the British government abandoned its plan to deport asylum seekers there. Yet over the past two decades, Rwanda has earned a reputation as the “Singapore of Africa”. The capital, Kigali, boasts clean, paved roads, modern glass architecture, and a digital infrastructure that many European municipalities can only dream of. The Rwanda Development Board (RDB) has cut through red tape so drastically that you can start a business online in just a few hours. It is no wonder the country ranks as Africa’s top-performing nation in the World Bank’s latest “Business Ready” ranking, thanks to a strict anti-corruption policy and high levels of internal security.

But cracks have begun to appear in the glossy facade. The war in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo is casting dark shadows over the country. A US-brokered peace treaty between the Congo and Rwanda was signed in Washington in December 2025, but the situation remains fragile. Beyond military and logistical support for the M23 rebel militia operating in eastern Congo—documented in several reports by UN expert panels—tangible economic interests are at stake: the smuggling of valuable Congolese minerals such as coltan and gold across the border, with the commodities then declared as Rwandan exports. For international corporations, this means that while the country offers dreamlike, stable conditions on the ground, it continues to operate in a geopolitical grey area.

Almonty Industries: The Strategic Tungsten Coup Amid the Trade War

Tungsten producer Almonty Industries, by contrast, promises a squeaky-clean deal with its latest investment. On Monday, the mining company sealed a groundbreaking partnership with the government in Kigali. A joint venture in which Almonty holds a 75% stake and the Rwandan government holds the remaining 25% is set to develop the 32 km² Shyorongi concession. What sets it apart: Almonty is not waiting years for the mine to be built; instead, it aims to generate immediate cash flow by buying raw materials directly from local small-scale producers and processing them using mobile facilities.

The fact that this agreement came about is no coincidence—it is the result of hard-nosed geopolitics. The deal was orchestrated as part of a broader economic framework agreement between the US and Rwanda. The reason lies in Beijing. Since China began imposing export restrictions on tungsten in the spring of 2025 and tightened them over the course of the year, the price of this critical heavy metal on the world market has at times nearly octupled. The West urgently needs this raw material for the semiconductor industry and defence production. Almonty is positioning itself as a problem-solver for Western corporations seeking certified “conflict-free” tungsten outside of China. The mining company, originally based in Canada and now headquartered in the US, is one of the hottest stories on the global stock market. Despite some sharp fluctuations, its share price has tripled over the past year, driven by the launch of the Sangdong mine in South Korea.

The project is seen as the West’s beacon of hope for a secure tungsten supply. Because of its extreme heat resistance, this heavy metal is needed for applications such as rocket engines and armour-piercing ammunition, as well as for chip interconnects and the manufacture of server circuit boards. Despite the company’s strategic importance for technology, military, aerospace and defence, the stock remains moderately valued, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of between 10 and 11 based on estimates for next year. The company has authorized a new share repurchase program with a maximum funding threshold of up to USD 300 million over the next three years. Renowned firms such as Jefferies are therefore recommending the share a “Buy”. The analyst price target is USD 26.25, nearly 75% above the current level of USD 14.70. On German exchanges, the stock is currently hovering around EUR 13.

In addition to the Sangdong project and its activities in Rwanda, Almonty operates a producing mine in Portugal and is developing deposits in Spain and the US state of Montana. CEO Lewis Black will report on operational progress on Wednesday, October 7, at the 20th International Investment Forum (IIF), one of the most important virtual investor events, which is also open to retail investors. Click here to register:
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_KxUBth5WSYagM_MwU_P4fw#/registration

Heineken: Cash Cow in East Africa, Global Growth Plan

The brewing giant Heineken also holds a strategic 75% majority stake in Rwanda. In 1971, the Dutch company first acquired a stake in Bralirwa, the country’s oldest and by far largest beverage manufacturer, and later increased its holdings. The publicly traded subsidiary effectively holds a monopoly on beer and soft drinks in Rwanda and is increasingly serving as a strong export hub for the entire East African market. The latest figures underscore that it is a cash cow. In the first half of the year, Bralirwa’s net profit climbed by an impressive 37.6%.

While many Western corporations are only now discovering Rwanda as an investment destination, Heineken has long since established a lucrative foothold there. The company is also leveraging these regional successes to drive its global transformation. The focus is on a “premiumization” strategy—higher-priced brands such as Heineken Silver and the non-alcoholic beer segment generate significantly higher margins than the traditional mass-market business. Furthermore, a decisive turning point is on the horizon. On October 1, veteran executive Rafael Oliveira will take over as CEO, and Wall Street expects him to significantly streamline the company’s cost structure.

For investors looking to capture Rwanda’s growth opportunities, Heineken is an excellent value stock. The stock is also supported by a EUR 1.5 billion share buyback program, which is likely to boost earnings per share. With a 2027 P/E ratio of 12.5, the stock is moderately valued compared to the industry, and the analyst consensus is optimistic about the future. With an average price target of around EUR 90, experts attribute solid upside potential of a good 25% to the stock relative to its current level of EUR 71.74—again led by Jefferies. Analysts at the US investment bank even believe the stock could jump to EUR 105.

BioNTech: Vaccines by the Container Load – Pioneering High-Tech Medicine

BioNTech represents the technological highlight of foreign investment in Rwanda. In the Kigali Special Economic Zone, the Mainz-based company is driving forward one of the most ambitious and visionary industrial projects on the entire African continent. Following its ceremonial launch at the end of 2023, the site will be home to Africa’s first fully operational mRNA vaccine factory. What makes it unique is its modular design. The factory consists of so-called “BioNTainers”—turnkey container modules prefabricated in Europe and assembled on-site. This concept guarantees the highest global quality standards, with extremely short construction times, and enables production of up to 50 million vaccine doses per year, helping Africa become independent of the West in the fight against diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, HIV, and Mpox.

The project is financially and politically secured. Since BioNTech operates the African pipeline through a nonprofit model for low-income countries, the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Commission are supporting the project with loans and grants totaling up to EUR 95 million. The vaccine alliance CEPI is contributing an additional USD 145 million. For BioNTech, the factory is thus not only an act of social responsibility but also a valuable real-world laboratory for testing a globally scalable, decentralized production architecture and conducting clinical trials directly in the regions most severely affected.

On the stock market, the former flagship company is still reeling from the surprise departure of the founding couple, Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, even though the dust has settled somewhat with the appointment of Guido Oelkers as the new CEO. He is moving from the Swedish pharmaceutical company Sobi to Mainz and will take over the position no later than February 1, 2027. Because the COVID-19 business has slumped dramatically, BioNTech is posting operating losses, but a strict cost-cutting program is intended to preserve the cash reserves built up during the pandemic. Plant closures have been announced in Marburg, Tübingen, and Idar-Oberstein, as well as in Singapore. Approximately 1,900 jobs will be cut worldwide. The site in Rwanda is expressly not affected by the new strategy of focusing primarily on cancer therapies. That said, BioNTech intends to scale back its vaccine business and use its cash reserves to fully self-fund its oncology pipeline well into the 2030s—including annual launches of cancer immunotherapies. Analysts are cautiously optimistic. The average price target is just over USD 120, which, at the current level of USD 96.20 (EUR 83.25 for ADRs tradable in Germany), promises 25% upside potential.

Three Companies Betting on One of Tomorrow’s Most Lucrative Markets

At first glance, these three stocks actually have little in common. Upon closer inspection, the answer becomes clear: Rwanda. This East African country is not for the faint of heart—but it is one of the most exciting, yet undiscovered spots on the investor’s map. A commodities group seeking independent supply chains, a brewing giant looking for growth beyond saturated markets, and a pharmaceutical pioneer searching for a real-world testing ground for global healthcare have all found what they are looking for here.

A look at the three stocks reveals just how differently investors can profit. The mining company Almonty stands out among the trio with the potentially lowest P/E ratio, which is why analysts see the greatest upside potential here. Those seeking the chance for high returns will find it here. Those who instead favour solid, crisis-resistant consumer spending and market monopolies should turn to Heineken’s value, and now also margin, story. And those who believe in the long-term high-tech revolution in healthcare should bet on BioNTech’s pioneering work in mRNA—even though, according to expert estimates, the company is not expected to return to profitability until 2030 at the earliest, making a valuation based on expected earnings impossible.

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