Evotec: Shares Jump After Results – Is That Enough For a Trend Reversal?
Evotec SE shares were among the notable gainers on the German stock market last Wednesday. On Xetra, the stock rose 6.71% from the previous day to EUR 2.61, but largely gave back those gains over the following days. Following the latest plunge, surprisingly good preliminary financial results provided some relief. However, a sustained technical reversal was not yet evident.
The Hamburg-based drug discovery company had published initial key figures for the nine months to the end of September. According to these, Evotec expected revenue of around EUR 465 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of minus EUR 42.8 million. Both figures exceeded current market expectations. However, the company explained that the discrepancy was essentially related to the timing of analysts’ estimates. This did not indicate a structural improvement in performance over the year as a whole.
Accordingly, the full-year outlook, already lowered in July, remained unchanged. For 2026, Evotec continued to expect revenue of EUR 570 million to EUR 610 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 70 million to EUR 105 million. The positive surprise therefore did not mean a return to profitability. The company set November 5 as the date for full third-quarter and first-nine-month results. This release should provide a clearer picture of operational performance.
On the daily chart, the share price rise initially improved the starting position only marginally. The stock continued to trade well below the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The broader picture therefore remained clearly bearish. The distance from these trend lines highlighted how little a single positive trading day had changed the pronounced downtrend. This did not yet indicate a reliable bottom formation.
On the upside, the zone between EUR 2.80 and EUR 3.00 initially presented an important hurdle. Only a sustained recovery of this range would improve the short-term starting position. Above that, the EUR 3.20 level would be another decisive resistance level. A breakout followed by stabilisation above this threshold could brighten the technical picture more markedly. Without this confirmation, the rise was initially to be viewed as an attempted recovery within the existing downtrend.
On the downside, the range between EUR 2.40 and EUR 2.50 came into focus. Last week, the stock found support around EUR 2.40. Comparable price levels had already been seen at the lows in August 2013 and October 2014. If this zone were breached, the area around EUR 2.01 from spring 2013 could also become relevant again as a historical reference point.
However, those historical price levels do not guarantee a sustainable bottom. Evotec has changed considerably since then. Compared with the 2021 high of EUR 45.83, this highlights the depth of the multi-year slump: regaining that level would require a rise of around 1,660% from Wednesday’s closing price. The next resistance levels and a demonstrable operational improvement therefore remain decisive.
Almonty Industries: Western Leverage in the Global Tungsten Monopoly
The geopolitical realignment of global procurement markets is bringing the strategic heavy metal tungsten firmly into the focus of Western industrial and defence strategists. As the People’s Republic of China currently dominates global refining and extraction, stricter proof-of-origin requirements imposed by Western industrialised nations call for supply-chain diversification. In this market environment, Almonty Industries made a strategic transition from a pure mining developer to a tungsten ore producer. With the processing plant in Sangdong, South Korea, officially certified, the first expansion phase entered regular commercial operation. The company is establishing itself as one of the few significant tungsten producers outside China’s sphere of influence.
The group’s core asset is the Sangdong deposit, whose predictable cash inflows largely depend on a long-term supply contract. This binding offtake agreement with the Plansee subsidiary Global Tungsten & Powders covers 4.41 million MTUs units over a 21-year term. Once the site reaches full production capacity, this agreement guarantees an offtake of at least 210,000 units per year. This corresponds to over 90% of the site’s output. This long-term sales security noticeably minimises marketing risks, although the company remains exposed to ammonium paratungstate prices. Most recently, the European benchmark price consolidated at around USD 2,950 per unit in September, after reaching USD 3,125 in July.
The Spanish Los Santos project diversifies geographical risk, with Almonty focusing on resource-efficient processing of historical tailings. A multi-year contract with Sandvik subsidiary Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG secures the utilisation of at least 1,720 tonnes of contained tungsten trioxide through a binding offtake and payment obligation. In addition to a conditional advance payment of USD 3 million for the marketing rights, the agreement involves modest capital expenditure of around USD 4 million. Analysts at Sphene Capital forecast tailings processing to start in the first quarter of 2027, with a target operating life of 7 years.
The corporate strategy is complemented by an African platform model in Rwanda, where Almonty controls 75% of a joint venture with state participation. In addition to its own exploration rights, the project aims to centrally process the highly fragmented output of local small-scale producers, with an estimated annual volume of 1,300 tonnes, and monetise it through secured export channels. Based on this multi-part value chain, research firm Sphene Capital reiterates its Buy recommendation with a price target of USD 26.40, implying substantial upside potential compared with the current share price of approximately USD 10. Despite these established contractual partners, the stock remains a highly volatile investment.
PNE: 20% Share Price Decline – The EUR 7 Zone Has Been Breached
PNE AG shares suffered a sharp price slump last week. The stock fell about 20.7% from the previous week and last traded at EUR 5.85. This took the shares back to a price level last reached in October 2020. A significant cut to full-year guidance triggered selling pressure and further worsened the already weak technical picture.
The wind farm developer had revised its expectations for the 2026 financial year downwards on Tuesday evening. PNE now expects consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of EUR 60 to 75 million, down from EUR 90 to 120 million. The guidance for normalised EBITDA fell from EUR 110 to 140 million to EUR 65 to 80 million. The midpoint fell by 42%. The revision was correspondingly substantial.
The company cited delays in project sales and approval procedures as the main reasons. As a result, individual earnings contributions originally planned for 2026 were expected to shift into the coming year. In addition, PNE decided to retain some already operational wind farms in its own portfolio, although it had initially planned to sell them. These facilities can continue to generate revenue from electricity production, but the expected sale proceeds will not materialise for now.
At the same time, the management board pointed to progress in the operating business. In its core markets of Germany, Poland and France, the group had so far sold 11 projects totalling around 361 megawatts. Nevertheless, the expected earnings contributions were insufficient to maintain the previous full-year guidance. The key question now is whether the delayed projects will actually deliver the planned profits and cash inflows in 2027.
From a technical perspective, last week left a clear break. From mid-August to mid-October, the shares had traded predominantly within a range of approximately EUR 7.00 to 7.50. The slump took the price well below the lower boundary of this multi-week sideways phase. The previously important zone around EUR 7 failed to absorb selling pressure. This area could therefore act as resistance during a subsequent recovery attempt.
The moving averages also highlighted the weak starting position. The 20-day moving average stood at around EUR 7.07, and the 50-day moving average at EUR 7.38. The 100-day moving average was significantly higher at approximately EUR 8.99, and the 200-day moving average at EUR 9.05. The closing price was therefore below all the trend lines examined. A sustained improvement would first require reclaiming the lost zone around EUR 7, then the previous trading range.
On the downside, the area between EUR 5.15 and 5.35 could be identified as the next potential support zone. Previous 2020 highs and lows were located there. However, it remains uncertain whether these old levels can halt the decline. Confirmed support emerges only through clear stabilisation. At the close of trading on Wednesday, the downward trend and uncertainty over future earnings performance continued to dominate.
Conclusion
Although Evotec’s share price jumped on surprisingly solid quarterly figures, it remains in the broader downward trend and must first sustainably overcome key hurdles. With long-term offtake agreements and the start of commercial production in South Korea, Almonty Industries is transitioning to become the leading Western player in the global tungsten market. PNE’s share price fell sharply by almost 20% after it cut its full-year guidance due to delayed project sales, breaking through key technical levels in the process.
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