Renewable energy in the US facing a golden future?
The expansion of renewable energy in the US is progressing rapidly despite the Trump administration’s more restrictive energy policy. Solar energy and battery storage in particular are booming. According to the industry association SEIA, these two technologies accounted for around 70% of newly installed power generation capacity in the first half of 2026. In the second quarter alone, 11.4 GW of new solar capacity was installed. This represents a 45% increase compared with the same period last year. And growth is likely to continue. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects installed solar capacity to rise from 152 GW at the end of 2025 to 223 GW by the end of 2027. This would represent an increase of around 47% within two years. This development is being driven, among other things, by rising electricity demand from data centres and the expansion of storage infrastructure.
The industry is likely to receive an additional tailwind from the Democrats’ decisive victory in the US midterm elections. Solar and wind energy in particular could benefit from stronger political support again. The use of clean energy is also likely to come into sharper focus as AI data centres expand. This is because the facilities’ enormous energy demand, rising electricity prices and the associated CO₂ emissions sparked debate during the election campaign. The Democrats want to regulate the expansion of data centres more closely and also take environmental aspects into account. This could open up additional business opportunities for renewable energy providers.
RE Royalties: A winner from the US interim figures?
RE Royalties is a beneficiary of the expansion of renewable energy in the US, which has so far received little attention from the stock market. The Canadian company has a business model that has already proved its worth in the commodities sector. Rather than building or operating power plants itself, RE Royalties provides capital to project developers and, in return, secures long-term revenue shares, known as royalties. The company now has more than 100 such interests in solar, wind and hydropower projects as well as battery storage facilities. The US is an important growth market. There, RE Royalties works with Solaris Energy, among others. In August 2026, a letter of intent (LOI) was signed to expand the collaboration to a total financing volume of up to USD 67.5 million. Of this, USD 4.8 million has been invested so far. The potential is therefore considerable. For project developers, financing through royalties offers the advantage of receiving capital without having to issue additional shares. RE Royalties, in turn, can participate in the revenues of the financed projects over many years.
In October, RE Royalties reported the full repayment of a USD 4.6 million loan for a biogas project in the US state of Wisconsin. Although the invested capital has been repaid in full, the company will continue to receive annual royalty payments of USD 184,000 over the next ten years. The money from the loan repayment can be reinvested. This is an example of how smart the business model is.
RE Royalties is also expanding internationally. Most recently, USD 1.5 million was invested in nine solar installations already in production in the Philippines. At the beginning of November, the company also announced the placement of another green bond of up to CAD 5 million to expand its portfolio. The review of strategic options, underway since March, is fuelling additional speculation. Partnerships and a possible sale of the company are also under discussion.
First Solar with a tailwind
Alongside RE Royalties, First Solar is also seen as a winner of the US midterm elections. The shares initially reacted to the election result with strong price gains. The Democrats’ new majority in both chambers of Congress could prevent further restrictions on solar subsidies and provide greater planning certainty. First Solar, as one of the leading US manufacturers of solar modules, is likely to benefit particularly from this.
The company could certainly use a political tailwind. Most recently, the third-quarter figures proved sobering. The US solar group recorded a 23% decline in revenue to USD 1.23 billion in the third quarter of 2026. At the same time, earnings per share rose 25% to USD 5.30, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Nevertheless, the shares came under pressure. First Solar had to lower its full-year revenue forecast from the previous USD 4.9 to 5.2 billion to USD 4.6 to 4.9 billion. This is due to lower module sales than originally expected. Despite the short-term weakness, the order backlog remains high at 44 GW. The company also announced a share buyback programme of up to USD 500 million.
First Solar shares have lost around 30% of their value this year and are currently trading at USD 191. At the beginning of June, the share price briefly stood at over USD 320. Analysts’ views on First Solar diverge widely following the quarterly figures. Mizuho is particularly optimistic. Last week, the analysts confirmed the Buy recommendation and raised the price target slightly from USD 324 to USD 328. GLJ Research, on the other hand, is considerably more sceptical. The analysts downgraded the shares from Buy to Hold and significantly reduced the price target from USD 250 to USD 161.
Siemens Energy: A loser?
Things are likely to get interesting at Siemens Energy today. The group is reporting on the fourth quarter of the 2025/26 financial year. The shares have corrected sharply in the second half of 2026. Although they are still up slightly year-to-date, they have lost around 30% since May.
The outlook is likely to be interesting, as the group could be among the losers of the US midterm elections. The DAX-listed group is currently benefiting massively from the boom in the construction of new gas-fired power plants in the US. In particular, rising electricity demand from AI data centres is keeping gas turbine order books full. However, the Democrats’ decisive election victory could slow this development. New environmental regulations and stricter approval procedures could make it more difficult to build gas-fired plants. The election outcome has already caused nervousness on the stock market. On the day after the election, Siemens Energy shares fell by around 8% at one point. However, the group is broadly diversified and could also benefit from stronger support for renewable energy through its power grid and wind energy businesses. In addition, the order backlog in the gas turbine business is already high. It therefore remains unclear how strongly the changed political environment will affect future growth.
Conclusion
Ahead of the results, numerous analysts have reiterated their Buy recommendations for Siemens Energy shares. JPMorgan is particularly optimistic, with a price target of EUR 245. There are good reasons for a rising share price at RE Royalties. The company could be among the winners of the US midterm elections. This also applies to First Solar. However, the solar group has often disappointed in the past.
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