- Frozen Turkey is cheaper than three years ago, priced at $1.67 per pound.
- Dairy sections are pricing higher, with eggs 5-10 per cent higher.
- Imported produce in many cases is more expensive than local produce in Canada.
- Professor Sylvain Charlebois says, “Based on the data we collected, the most aggressive retailers in Canada right now for Thanksgiving are Wal-Mart, Giant Tiger and No Frills.”
The consumer price Index (CPI), the measure for inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses, had a 40-year high increase of 6.8 per cent in 2022, followed by a 3.9 per cent gain on an annual basis in 2023.
This year, for a 12-month period ending in August the CPI is up 2 percent, with food purchased from stores up 2.4 per cent.
According to a Global News article referencing an Ipsos poll surveying more than a thousand Canadians in August, “Some 43 per cent of Canadians are worried they might not have enough money to feed their families.”
As we approach Thanksgiving and the holiday season, looking forward to a turkey dinner expenses add up and our pocketbooks feel the pinch. Thoughts of a hearty meal with family and friends are the things we look forward to … but will food inflation spoil our appetite?
Professor Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and the co-host of “The Food Professor Podcast” spoke with us earlier this week to provide this year’s price outlook for turkey dinner, suggest where to shop for bargains, and share which food products are priced lower or higher.
In addition, we review Charlebois’ bargain shopping suggestions with a review of those companies’ news, share prices and performances.
“Consumers should be on the lookout for bargains because there are bargains this year compared to last year. … You have to work a little harder. You have to go to different places, different stores to really get what you need at the cheapest price possible.”
— Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University
He adds that retailers are using the loss leader strategy to get consumers in the door and encourage the purchase of additional, more expensive items.
At the time of the interview, Charlebois says frozen turkey is less expensive at the moment, priced at $1.67-$2.50 per pound. Fresh turkey is priced around the same as it was last year, between $3.25-$3.50 per pound. He notes that if you go for the “extras” such as cranberries, rolls and gravy from the same store, you might get charged more for those items.
Will this year’s sit-down meal cost more than 2023?
On a full Thanksgiving meal dinner for a family of four, Charlebois quotes a bill around $32.30-$45.00, breaking down to between $8.00-$11.25 per person. Last year, in a Toronto Sun article, The Agri-Food Analytics Lab estimated the cost of a turkey dinner at $9.48 per person.
Charlebois also notes that some items such as pumpkin pie and potatoes have remained the same price as last year while carrots and beans are cheaper. Dairy has increased, eggs are up by 5 to 10 per cent, and most retailers are selling ham at a much higher price.
Where can you get the best deals?
“So right now, based on the data we collected, the most aggressive retailers in Canada right now for Thanksgiving are Wal-Mart, Giant Tiger and No Frills.”
— Sylvain Charlebois
For more information on food prices and food security in Canada, Charlebois writes a column in the Toronto Sun. As well, the Agri Food Lab is releasing a new report, “The Canadian Food Sentiment Index” and the Grocer Code of Conduct is set for implementation in June 2025.
Shares of Giant Tiger’s parent company, North West Company (TSX:NWC), are up year to date more than 30 percent and are trading at C$52.08. In September the company declared at quarterly dividend of 40 cents, up 2.6 per cent per share.
Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSX:L), which has No Frills under its umbrella, recently announced a 10.8 per cent rise in adjusted diluted net earnings per share. Company shares were last trading at C$177.34, up over 35 percent year to date.
U.S. multinational retail corporation Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is up almost 50 percent year to date, and shares were last trading at US$80.15.
Join the discussion: Find out what everybody’s saying about these companies on the North West Company Bullboard, Loblaw Companies Ltd. Bullboard and Walmart Inc. Bullboard, and check out Stockhouse’s stock forums and message boards.
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