Novo Nordisk: Well-Positioned in the Billion-Dollar Obesity Market
The global obesity epidemic affects over a billion people, yet only 2% receive drug therapy. Analysts estimate the market size for 2030 at up to USD 150 billion. It is a growth market without equal. Novo Nordisk has not only tapped into this segment with Wegovy, but has also significantly defined it. The Danish pharmaceutical giant remains the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment and holds around 60% of the global market share. While Eli Lilly has temporarily overtaken it in the US, Novo is setting the course for the next phase of growth with a clever tablet strategy.
The oral version of Wegovy has been performing better than expected since its launch in January 2026. In the first quarter, there were over 2 million prescriptions and revenue equivalent to USD 354 million. More than 80% of new patients are using a GLP-1 medication for the first time, demonstrating that the company is tapping into new target groups. The pill also offers better margins and lower manufacturing costs than the injection. CEO Mike Doustdar calls it the strongest GLP-1 launch in US history. EU approval is imminent, with other international markets to follow.
The pipeline remains promising. Wegovy HD (7.2 mg) achieved nearly 28% weight loss in studies, outperforming Lilly’s Zepbound. CagriSema was submitted for FDA review in February 2026. Added to this is a double-digit billion-dollar volume for share buybacks and a dividend increase for the 28th consecutive year. Novo Nordisk is tackling the obesity megamarket from a position of strength. The current valuation, with a P/E ratio currently below 10, ignores the fact that the company is in the midst of a turnaround from the injection business to the pill business. The share is currently trading at around EUR 35.98.
MustGrow Biologics: Bayer as a Gateway for Mustard-Extract Technology
Regulatory pressure on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides is tightening worldwide. MustGrow Biologics, based in Saskatchewan, has developed a natural active ingredient derived from mustard seeds that combats soil-borne pests. Since 2023, the company has been collaborating with Bayer, which is responsible for the commercialization of the pre-registered mustard-derived biocontrol product TerraMG™ across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. According to estimates, Bayer is investing around USD 35–40 million in development and approval. Two years of comparative testing against synthetic standards convinced the industry leader. For MustGrow, this is not only a seal of approval but also a massive competitive advantage. The partner is opening doors that would otherwise remain closed for years.
The organic, mustard-derived biofertility product TerraSante™ is already being sold in the US. For example, an organic potato producer in Washington achieved an additional yield of around 2 tons per acre with an application rate of 12.33 kg per hectare. While such results are not universally applicable, they tend to spread quickly among farmers through word of mouth. That is likely one of the reasons the product sold out last year. Since April 2026, regulatory approvals have been added in Georgia, Texas, Utah, and Montana, in addition to the existing approvals on the West Coast. Management estimates the addressable market potential for TerraSante™ in the US alone at approximately CAD 100 million, based on a market penetration of just over 3% and an assumed area of 5.6 million hectares of high-value crops.
In the first quarter of 2026, MustGrow reported TerraSante™ revenue of CAD 0.1 million with a gross margin of 23.6%. The net loss decreased from CAD 1.6 million to CAD 1.3 million compared to the same period last year. Cash on hand at the end of March stood at CAD 0.4 million, with working capital of CAD 1.5 million. Switching production from batch processing to continuous lines led to supply bottlenecks. The company has since secured two Asian contract manufacturers with an estimated production capacity of 500 tons. At the end of May, the company announced a LIFE private placement offering at CAD 0.50 per unit to build up inventory. The course has been set for 2026. The share is currently trading at around CAD 0.49.
Bayer: Agri Division Delivers, but Legal Dispute Overshadows Everything
The Agri Division picked up nicely in the first quarter of 2026. On a currency-adjusted basis, revenue rose by 6.8% to over EUR 7.5 billion. The seed business was the driver. Revenues for soybeans nearly doubled thanks to a licensing agreement with Corteva Agriscience. Corn also got off to a strong start to the season. The crop protection business, however, faltered. Herbicide sales declined by a good 10%. At least the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reinstated the approval for dicamba herbicides in 34 states. This is an important signal for the current season.
But strong operating figures are secondary right now. The legacy issues from the Monsanto acquisition dominate the situation. In February, Bayer presented a multi-billion-dollar class-action settlement regarding glyphosate, which provided for payments of up to USD 7.25 billion over 21 years. However, plaintiffs’ attorneys secured a venue change to California, where a judge considered critical of Bayer presides. At the same time, the industry is awaiting a landmark ruling from the Supreme Court in June. It could determine whether state EPA approvals protect against local lawsuits. This could turn out to be either a breakthrough or a disaster.
The pharmaceuticals division continues to struggle with expiring patents. Xarelto and Eylea are losing ground noticeably, while Nubeqa and Kerendia are gaining. New indications for Kerendia and a Japanese approval for a contrast agent offer hope. For the group as a whole, legal risk remains the biggest source of uncertainty. Free cash flow was deeply in the red, with EUR 2 billion alone going toward settlement payments. CEO Bill Anderson is driving the restructuring forward, but until the Supreme Court ruling, Bayer remains a case for investors with strong nerves. Management is nevertheless sticking to its annual forecast—currently, a share costs around EUR 35.27.
The spread of obesity and the looming food shortage seem contradictory at first glance, but they are currently creating investment opportunities together. Novo Nordisk is redefining the obesity market with its oral Wegovy pill and gaining over 80% new patients. MustGrow Biologics is leveraging its partnership with Bayer for its natural mustard-derived extract, expanding in the US, and securing its production with Asian contract manufacturers. Bayer demonstrates operational strength in its agricultural division, but the glyphosate litigation and the Supreme Court ruling in June remain risks.
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