Barrick Mining – Record Numbers, Rising Costs
The operational foundation of the Canadian group Barrick Mining is impressive. 871,000 ounces of gold and 62,000 metric tons of copper in the final quarter of 2025, plus free cash flow of USD 1.62 billion in the last three months alone. Shareholders benefited immediately. The dividend shot up by 140%, and the company also conducted USD 500 million in share buybacks in the fourth quarter. Over the entire year of 2025, USD 1.5 billion was spent on share buybacks. This sounds like a sure thing, but appearances can be deceiving, as challenges are mounting.
The headwinds are becoming noticeable. Production costs (AISC) are set to rise sharply in 2026 to USD 1,760 to USD 1,950 per ounce, a significant jump from USD 1,637 the previous year. At the same time, the production forecast of a maximum of 3.25 million ounces is lower than the 2025 annual output. And then there is the Reko Diq mega-project in Pakistan. Due to escalating security issues in Balochistan and the fallout from the Middle East, development has been slowed down for 12 months. Construction costs for Phase 1 have risen to as much as USD 6 billion, and initial production is being pushed back to 2029 at the earliest.
Management’s proposed solution is a spin-off. Barrick plans to consolidate its North American mines into an independent company called NewCo and list 10–15% of it on the stock market. The goal is to separate the stable US business from the risky African and Asian operations. But the plan is faltering. Newmont, the partner in the Nevada joint venture, is threatening legal action and could block the IPO. Additionally, a previously unmentioned profit-sharing royalty from Teck Resources on the Fourmile project is diminishing the value of the IPO package, as Teck receives 10–15% of net profits. The stock is currently trading at USD 41.38.
Desert Gold – Production in Mali and Exploration in Côte d’Ivoire
The SMSZ project in Mali is located in one of Africa’s most productive gold belts – immediate neighbors such as Barrick and B2Gold have already produced millions of ounces there. Desert Gold holds a resource of approximately 1.22 million ounces over 440 sq km, but the current feasibility study only accounts for near-surface oxide resources. That represents just 10% of the total potential. Over 30 known gold zones await exploration, many of them barely drilled. The project is therefore not based on a single mineralized zone, but on a broad spectrum of targets with significant discovery potential. Anyone who looks only at the ounces already identified here may underestimate the broader geological potential.
The latest financing round raised CAD 7.2 million and was significantly oversubscribed, which is rare for explorers at this stage. The funds are going directly toward a modular gravity plant for the fully permitted Barani East project. Commissioning is scheduled for June, and the manufacturer will remain on-site for training. The company is taking a capital-efficient approach here. Initially, they will start with a 68% gold recovery rate; the remaining material will be stockpiled and later processed to nearly 90% using a retrofitted CIL line. This keeps the capital outlay manageable, and the expected cash flow will finance further exploration without constant dilution for shareholders.
The second pillar, the Tiegba Gold project, is the classic “option” scenario. A ground anomaly once discovered by Newmont extends over 4.5 km in length and 2 km in width, but drilling was never carried out at the time. Desert Gold has validated the anomaly and plans to conduct drone-based magnetic surveys and initial drilling in the first half of 2026. The rest of the 300 sq km concession is largely unexplored. If a viable gold system is discovered here, it would amount to a complete revaluation of the company—a manageable exploration effort for enormous upside potential. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.125.
B2Gold – Facing a Challenging Year
B2Gold is in the midst of a difficult transition. Following a strong 2025 with nearly 1 million ounces of gold, management expects production to decline to 820,000 to 970,000 ounces in 2026. Particularly painful is that open-pit mining has ended in Namibia, and the Otjikoto mine will now deliver only 80,000 ounces instead of 199,000. Production is also declining in Mali due to extensive overburden removal work. At the same time, costs are skyrocketing. Total costs are estimated at USD 2,400–USD 2,580 per ounce. This is putting enormous pressure on margins.
A leadership change is also on the horizon this summer. Founder Clive Johnson will hand over the reins in June to CFO Mike Cinnamond, an experienced executive but not an operations specialist. Investors’ skepticism is understandable. On the positive side, the company is maintaining shareholder remuneration. The quarterly dividend of USD 0.02 is being paid, and a buyback program for up to 10% of the outstanding shares is underway. By early 2026, the company had already repurchased USD 24 million worth of its own shares.
Hopes rest on Canada. The Goose Mine reached commercial production in October and is expected to deliver between 170,000 and 230,000 ounces in 2026. The latest drill results in the Back River District are spectacular, including 41.95 g/t over nearly 14 m. This points to significantly greater potential than previously assumed. In addition, a gold advance payment agreement expires in June, releasing approximately 66,000 ounces monthly at current market prices. This will provide additional cash flow. Currently, a share costs USD 4.74.
Geopolitical crises and soaring debt make gold shine as a hedge against inflation. Barrick Mining is countering rising costs with share buybacks and a problematic NewCo spin-off. Desert Gold is launching modular production in Mali, financing the next exploration phase without dilution, and holds huge potential in Côte d’Ivoire. B2Gold is going through a tough transition year with setbacks in Namibia and Mali, but is banking on the spectacular Goose Mine in Canada. Three companies positioned to benefit from sustained gold demand, each with its own risks, each with its own opportunities.
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