Not Enough Tungsten For The Semiconductor Industry?
Last Friday, the price for a metric ton unit (MTU), equivalent to 10 kg, of the rare raw material reached levels of up to USD 3,190 on the Rotterdam trading floor. This continues the sharp rally and overshadows developments in nearly every other commodity. At the beginning of this year, the price was still around USD 900 per MTU.
While the focus is usually on tungsten’s importance in the defense industry, other sectors also rely on this particularly hard metal. A potential shortage is emerging in the semiconductor sector. A few days ago, the Korean news portal thelec.net reported that industry experts are already warning of an imminent risk regarding tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆). According to the report, Japanese WF₆ producers, who account for about 25% of global supply, have informed their South Korean customers in the semiconductor industry of potential supply shortages in the second half of 2026. The reason is that Chinese export controls on tungsten are making it increasingly difficult to procure the raw material for further processing. Inventory levels are expected to cover current production volumes only until June. South Korean customers include chip manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix.
Almonty with Perfect Timing
A potential supply alternative for the South Korean semiconductor industry could be closer than expected. Just a few days ago, the completion ceremony for the Sangdong Mine took place in South Korea. This is one of the larger tungsten deposits globally. It is operated by Almonty Industries. Since acquiring the historic mine in 2015, Almonty has invested more than USD 100 million in the revitalization of Sangdong. The mine began operations at the end of 2025 and is expected to process approximately 640,000 tons of ore per year in the first phase. In Phase 2, production capacity is expected to double again. Sangdong is then projected to meet around 40% of global tungsten demand outside of China, thereby achieving global strategic significance. The Almonty CEO has repeatedly pointed out in recent months that Sangdong is likely also the most efficient mine in the world. Margins are therefore expected to be correspondingly high. This is because the mine, which has a 45-year lifespan, was developed when the price of tungsten was around USD 300 per MTU. As previously mentioned, the price is now over USD 3,000.
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Sangdong is not Almonty’s only mine. The company has been active in Portugal for years and is currently expanding its mine there. And in the US, the company acquired a project at the end of 2025 and plans to bring it into production this year.
Analysts Remain Conservative
Given the market and Almonty’s unique position, it is not surprising that the stock has attracted strong analyst attention. In Germany, the company is covered by GBC Research. Due to rapidly rising tungsten prices and the successful ramp-up of the Sangdong mine, analysts have significantly raised their earnings estimates and price targets.
GBC analyst Matthias Greiffenberger comments: “The tungsten market has undergone structural changes. Export restrictions, growing demand from the defense and high-tech industries, and limited new production capacity outside of China are leading to a sustainably higher price level. Combined with the production ramp-up in Sangdong, this results in a significantly improved earnings profile for Almonty.”
For the current year, analysts expect EBITDA of CAD 260 million. In 2027, it is expected to rise to CAD 640 million and approach the billion-dollar mark in 2028. Based on these outlooks, GBC analysts have raised the price target for Almonty shares from CAD 9 to CAD 28.60, or around EUR 17.71.
With these estimates, the analysts remain very conservative. This is because their model is based on a tungsten price of just USD 1,500 per MTU—currently, it is twice that amount.
It is therefore not surprising that estimates from firms such as Cantor Fitzgerald are significantly higher. Analysts expect Almonty to generate an EBITDA of CAD 488.1 million this year. Next year, that figure could reach around CAD 844 million. Cantor Fitzgerald estimates the fair value of Almonty stock at CAD 36. The NASDAQ stock is currently trading at around CAD 23.
Conclusion: A Correction Equals a Buying Opportunity
Almonty shares have corrected sharply in recent weeks. This also happened several times last year and has always proven to be an attractive buying opportunity. There is much to suggest that the same will hold true this time. Demand for tungsten will remain high, China will continue to restrict exports, and Almonty will increase its production. Furthermore, many analysts’ estimates still appear to be too conservative.
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