Chips, Gold, and Dividends: ASML, Lahontan, and Allianz as a Safe Haven Amid Market Turmoil

ASML: The Monopolist with the Hefty Price Tag

ASML’s figures have surprised even the most optimistic analysts. CEO Christophe Fouquet raised the revenue forecast for 2026 for the second time this year, from the previous range of EUR 36 to 40 billion to EUR 43 to 45 billion. The gross margin is also expected to be higher than anticipated in April, at 54-56%. In the second quarter, revenue rose unexpectedly sharply by 21% to EUR 9.3 billion, while net income increased by 27.5% to over EUR 2.9 billion. For the third quarter, ASML is now targeting revenue of EUR 11 to 12 billion.

This second consecutive upward revision shows that ASML was not simply swept along by the semiconductor rally, which has since cooled significantly, but has genuine substance. The Dutch company is the only one in the world to manufacture the highly advanced EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems, without which state-of-the-art AI chips could not be produced. The demand outlook extends well beyond 2026. Even Elon Musk’s planned giant chip factory, Terafab, is already factored into the targets for 2027 and 2028.

With a current share price of around EUR 1,570, ASML is, at first glance, an expensive stock. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 50 for this year is also ambitious. The stock is therefore not entirely immune to fluctuations, but the resilience of its business model and its more-than-robust order book should ensure that any dip in the share price is quickly smoothed out.

Lahontan Gold: The Small Explorer with Big Leverage

The same applies to Lahontan Gold. Although the stock initially fell when the gold price corrected significantly from its high of USD 5,600 per ounce, it defended most of its previous rally and, at CAD 0.36 today, is trading at more than three times its price a year ago. Since mid-March, the stock has almost completely decoupled from fluctuations in the gold price. The reason is operational progress that suggests the company is entering an entirely new dimension. The assumed correlation with the gold price is also likely to lose significance, as the estimated production costs of about USD 1,200 per ounce remain well below the current gold price, implying exceptionally attractive profit margins.

The contrast could hardly be greater. While ASML trades above the EUR 1,500 mark, Lahontan Gold remains a largely overlooked penny stock. And yet, for a company in the small-cap segment, which is notorious for its volatility, this Canadian gold explorer is remarkably stable. The company focuses its operational activities on the neighbouring United States. First on the agenda is the reopening of the historic Santa Fe Mine in Nevada, where 359,202 ounces of gold and 702,067 ounces of silver were mined via open-pit operations between 1988 and 1995. Because the leaching technology used at the time could extract only about 70% of the gold from the ore, a large portion of the value remained unextracted before operations were suspended. Today, significantly higher recovery rates can be achieved. The rock, lying exposed and considered waste 30 years ago, contains 200,000 ounces that can be extracted cost-effectively with modern technology—a value of USD 800 million, far exceeding the company’s market capitalization of around USD 110 million. Another advantage is that, because roads, water rights, and power connections can be reused, the planned restart, with relatively lower capital requirements, a shorter construction period, and lower risk, is considered significantly more promising than new greenfield projects.

And the 200,000 ounces are just the tip of the gold iceberg: the total resource is estimated at 1.95 million ounces. Added to this is the West Santa Fe satellite project, located just 13 km away, which can be supplied via the main mine’s infrastructure. Drilling there has yielded unusually high gold grades. CEO Kimberly Ann recently summed up the risk profile: “The risk is so low, it is ridiculous.” The newly discovered Slab West zone remains open on all sides, offering opportunities for further discoveries. Four out of five drill holes there have already intersected gold. You can find a recent interview with the CEO here:

https://youtu.be/-wQszRVAyAU

The experienced management team has an impressive track record. CEO Kimberly Ann and Chief Exploration Officer Brian Maher had previously developed a project, Prodigy Gold, to the point of being acquired by Argonaut Gold in 2012. This time, they intend to reap the rewards of their work themselves and bring Santa Fe to production on their own. The target date for the first in-house cast bars is late 2027. Particularly noteworthy in terms of the speed of permitting: Nine drill holes did not intersect the water table anywhere, which significantly simplifies environmental requirements. And the historic waste rock piles, containing 27.2 million metric tons of material, have lain undisturbed for over 40 years without any acidic seepage water forming—a strong indication of low environmental risk at the future mine. A press release dated June 30 demonstrates just how serious management is. This year alone, 87 drill holes totaling 7,751 m have already been drilled; the updated mineral resource estimate is expected in a few weeks, and the revised PEA is expected by the end of August. This could trigger a revaluation.

Allianz: The Dividend Anchor with a Valuation Discount

Allianz enters the picture as a third rock in the storm—and by far the one with the longest tradition. The Munich-based company is Europe’s largest insurance group and has been a must-have for dividend hunters for years, partly because CEO Oliver Bäte advocates a decidedly shareholder-friendly dividend policy. As early as the turn of the millennium, the share price was hovering around the EUR 400 mark before plummeting to around EUR 50 following the bursting of the dot-com bubble. A recovery followed, making it an analyst favourite from 2004 to 2006—until the financial crisis sent the share price tumbling back to around EUR 50. Who would have thought back then that the EUR 400 threshold, which has since been surpassed, could ever be reached again?

Today, the company stands stronger than ever before. In the first quarter of 2026, operating profit climbed 6.6% year-over-year to a record level of over EUR 4.5 billion, with business volume reaching EUR 53 billion. Adjusted quarterly net income jumped by 48.4% to nearly EUR 3.8 billion—though this was also driven by one-time effects from the sale of Indian holdings. Excluding these effects, growth stood at around 7%. The Executive Board recently confirmed the full-year target of an operating profit of EUR 16.4 to 18.4 billion, and the share buyback program, with a volume of up to EUR 2.5 billion, continues as planned. The next quarterly report is due on August 7—the market expects it to confirm the positive trend.

With a P/E ratio of 13.6 for the current year, the stock, despite the recent price increase to EUR 415.90, is valued more favourably than the DAX average, which stands at around 18. The dividend yield of 4.4% is also well above the average payout of the 40 companies included in Germany’s leading index. There is a growing recognition that, given a five-year streak of continuous earnings growth, a valuation premium would be justified. This is, incidentally, one reason why the share price has shown little sensitivity to geopolitical turmoil, such as the recent hostilities in Iran.

Conclusion: No Coincidences, Just Solid Reasons

Even safe havens are not immune to movement—that is the nature of the stock market. Neither ASML, nor Lahontan Gold, nor Allianz is completely immune to price fluctuations. Yet, compared to their respective benchmarks, the cooling semiconductor rally, the correcting gold price, and the nervousness surrounding geopolitical hotspots are all fluctuating noticeably more moderately. And there is a good reason for each: ASML owes its stability to a virtual monopoly with orders extending well into the 2030s; Lahontan Gold to a mining project whose profitability could withstand even a significantly lower gold price; and Allianz to a years-long streak of rising profits, including shareholder-friendly capital returns. Three very different business models and companies of vastly different sizes, yet they all share one thing in common: companies with a compelling, fundamentally sound story do not have to rely on market sentiment to succeed.

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