Between Stock Lows, Optimism and the Launch of a Funding Round – CTS Eventim, Desert Gold and Hypoport

CTS Eventim Drops 6.2%: CFO’s Departure Shakes Confidence – Analysts Remain Optimistic

Sold-out festivals and growing profits are currently not enough to reassure investors. Shares of CTS Eventim (WKN: 547030 | ISIN: DE0005470306 | Ticker: EVD) fell 6.2% on Wednesday and closed on Xetra at just under EUR 53.0. The trigger was the surprise departure of Chief Financial Officer William Willms. While the market is once again downgrading its confidence in the ticketing group, analysts are sticking to significantly higher price targets. What lies behind this divergence in assessment?

Willms is stepping down with immediate effect from the Executive Board of Eventim Management AG, the general partner of the publicly traded group. Philipp Knigge, who has held various finance positions at Eventim for about nine years, will temporarily take over these responsibilities. The company does not comment on the reasons in its announcement. This lack of information makes the assessment difficult: An abrupt change in the finance department raises questions about leadership, but does not itself indicate a deterioration in business.

On the contrary, the most recently published figures show growth. In the first half of 2026, CTS Eventim increased revenue by 16.9% to EUR 1.513 billion. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 12.4% to EUR 225.4 million. However, earnings growth lagged behind revenue growth. This makes profitability the decisive litmus test: More tickets sold and additional events must also translate into correspondingly higher profits. This is particularly evident in the ticketing segment. There, half-year revenue rose by 13.9% to EUR 473.3 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by only 3.4% to EUR 172.5 million. Eventim attributes this to temporary changes in the business mix and costs associated with its efficiency program. In the events business, however, adjusted EBITDA grew by 57.1% to EUR 52.9 million. Sold-out festivals such as Rock am Ring and Rock im Park supported this growth. Nevertheless, the margin here, at 5.0%, was significantly lower than the 36.4% recorded in ticketing.

Despite the personnel news, analysts see considerable potential for recovery. Jefferies confirmed its “Buy” recommendation on Wednesday with a price target of EUR 100. JPMorgan maintained its “Overweight” rating and EUR 95 target. Compared to the unrounded closing price, these targets represent, mathematically, upside potential of approximately 89% and 79%, respectively. These are expectations, not guaranteed returns.

JPMorgan interprets the decision as a sign that CEO Klaus-Peter Schulenberg and the supervisory board want to accelerate the company’s growth momentum. The next earnings report will determine whether this interpretation holds up.

Skepticism has prevailed on the stock market so far. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has lost about 31.9%, and about 36.5% over the past year. The CFO’s departure thus comes during an already weak period for the share price. At the half-year results presentation in August, the Executive Board had confirmed the full-year forecast; today’s personnel announcement contains no change to the forecast. For a sustainable recovery, Eventim now needs clarity regarding financial management and convincing progress in profitability. The high analyst targets make the stock interesting. However, they alone cannot restore lost confidence.

Desert Gold SMSZ Project: Barani Mine Set for First Gold Pour in the Fourth Quarter

The Canadian exploration company Desert Gold Ventures (WKN: A14X09 | ISIN: CA25039N4084 | Ticker: QXR2) is accelerating its transition from a pure-play explorer to an active producer at its flagship SMSZ project in western Mali, near the border with Senegal. Against the backdrop of persistently strong global gold prices, exceeding USD 4,000 per troy ounce, the planned start of production is becoming increasingly strategically relevant for capital markets.

At the Barani site, a gravity-based processing plant with a nominal throughput capacity of 200 metric tons per day and a 650-kVA generator set were successfully delivered. Following logistical challenges related to ocean freight, regional fuel supply, and weather-related delays caused by the African rainy season, the final assembly of the mechanical and electrical components is imminent. Operational commissioning is scheduled to take place by the end of October 2026, followed by the first ore processing in November 2026.

The short-term business plan focuses on completing the remaining foundations and civil engineering work, as well as site-specific infrastructure. Extensive hydrogeological surveys involving 15 survey lines and 688 measurement points led to four exploratory boreholes, three of which yielded water flow rates of up to 24 cubic metres per hour. At the same time, the transport routes from the neighboring town of Bourdala to the deposit were upgraded to ensure a weather-resistant logistics chain between the camps and the open-pit mine. Management, led by CEO Jared Scharf, remains committed to the goal of producing the first commercial gold pour in the fourth quarter of 2026. No incidents related to occupational safety or environmental protection have been recorded during the construction phases to date in the current calendar year. This points to professional project management despite the challenging conditions during the local rainy season, which is now coming to an end.

From a capital markets perspective, however, market participants must monitor the specific risk profile of this junior mining operator. As is often the case in the commodities sector, construction of the processing plant has been delayed, and a bankable feasibility study is not yet available. While the accelerated approach to mining the gold deposits via open-pit mining reduces upfront investments, the standard studies must then be completed using future revenues to improve planning certainty for the coming years. Investors should therefore closely monitor the upcoming ramp-up phase in the fourth quarter, as the throughput of gold-bearing ore and the actual gold yield are crucial for a re-rating of the stock. Analysts Greiffenberger and Filker of GBC see a price target of CAD 0.93.

Hypoport Plummets to Year-to-Date Low: Why Berenberg Still Sees a Price of EUR 185

After losing almost half of its market value since the beginning of the year, Hypoport still has an analyst price target well above its current share price. At Hypoport (WKN: 549336 | ISIN: DE0005493365 | Ticker: HYQ), analyst expectations and market reality are worlds apart. On Wednesday, the stock fell by about 9.0% to EUR 67.0, hitting a new 52-week low. So far, there is no evidence that a new profit warning triggered the decline. The key question is rather: How resilient are hopes for a recovery in the German mortgage market?

Hypoport operates digital platforms for the lending, real estate, and insurance industries. Banks and brokers process financing transactions through Europace. Consequently, the company’s business performance depends largely on how many homebuyers actually take out a loan. In the first half of 2026, Europace’s real estate financing volume reached EUR 38.31 billion, down from EUR 38.35 billion in the previous year. The hoped-for recovery thus remained limited. Following an early surge in deals in the first quarter, the market slowed again in the second quarter.

Nevertheless, the group is earning more. Half-year revenue rose by about 5% to EUR 319.4 million, and gross profit to EUR 137.5 million. Operating profit before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by about 20% to EUR 19.3 million. Behind this positive half-year performance, however, lies a weaker second quarter: EBIT at EUR 7.3 million was slightly below the EUR 7.4 million reported in the prior year. For investors, therefore, the key question is whether earnings momentum will pick up again. During the half-year presentation, CEO Ronald Slabke confirmed the full-year forecast of at least EUR 280 million in gross profit and EUR 40 to 55 million in EBIT. Based on the first six months, Hypoport would need to generate an additional EUR 20.7 to 35.7 million in EBIT in the second half of the year to meet these targets. Reaching the upper end of this range, in particular, would require a significant acceleration. Slabke points to gains in market share, improvements at previously loss-making subsidiaries, and the traditionally strong earnings contribution from the fourth quarter. The profit forecast thus relies on several operational advances.

Berenberg remains optimistic. In an analysis published on September 25, the private bank reaffirmed its “Buy” recommendation and price target of EUR 185. Analyst Chris Armstrong sees Hypoport as a potential beneficiary of reforms in the German residential real estate market. Based on the closing price of EUR 67.0, this represents an upside potential of about 176%. This enormous discrepancy illustrates just how differently the future is being assessed. For the target to come into reach, these positive expectations must also translate into rising financing volumes and profits.

The stock’s price performance so far calls for caution. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has fallen by about 47.0%; over the past twelve months, the decline has been approximately 51.4%. The stock is still far from its 52-week high of EUR 156.4. However, the sharp decline alone does not yet make it a bargain: what matters is what profits can be achieved in the future. The next interim report is scheduled for November 9. At that time, platform volume and operating income, in particular, will need to show whether the annual targets remain plausible. Hypoport offers a clear path to recovery. However, there is still no evidence that this will lead to sustained growth.

At CTS Eventim, the unexpected resignation of the CFO is weighing noticeably on the share price, even though the operating ticket and live event business continues to grow and analysts even see potential for the share price to double. Desert Gold is accelerating its transition to becoming an active gold producer and, despite the absence of studies, is targeting its first gold production in the fourth quarter using the gravity separation plant currently under construction. Hypoport’s stock is hitting new yearly lows after weaker momentum in the construction financing sector; however, optimistic bank analysts say it offers enormous upside potential if the market recovers.

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