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Infineon: The new financial year will be even better

The figures Infineon presented on Tuesday for the financial year ended September 30 were impressive. Revenue rose by 11.5% to EUR 16.4 billion, while adjusted operating profit from the business segments – referred to at Infineon as segment result – reached EUR 3.2 billion. This represents an increase of 25.9% on the previous year. For 2027, the management board is forecasting revenue of around EUR 20 billion. The driver is the power supply for AI data centres. In this area, revenue is expected to grow from EUR 1.7 billion to almost EUR 4 billion. “Infineon ended the 2026 financial year with another record quarter and is entering the new financial year with sustained strong momentum”, CEO Jochen Hanebeck said. The dividend is set to rise from EUR 0.35 to EUR 0.38 per share.

Analysts were satisfied, although some firms lowered their price targets – Bernstein Research, for example, from EUR 102 to EUR 82, and Jefferies from EUR 96 to EUR 74. This is nothing more than an adjustment to reality. After all, caught up in the AI sell-off, shares in the Munich-based DAX group had previously fallen from their June high of almost EUR 90 to as low as EUR 45 – halving outright. The share price has since recovered to just over EUR 52. And in the experts’ view, there is more to come. Even the most conservative price target of EUR 64 from Swiss banking giant UBS leaves more than 20% upside. The most optimistic target of EUR 100 from Berenberg represents more than 90% upside. The comeback of Germany’s largest chipmaker appears to be a foregone conclusion. The stock is likely to be one of the favourites for the year-end rally – if it materialises.

Antimony Resources: The indispensable raw material

At the start of every chip supply chain is a mine. Antimony is one of those inconspicuous, little-known elements that are becoming increasingly scarce and sought-after as data centres boom. It hardens lead in ammunition and is used in flame retardants, but also in batteries and semiconductors. China controls around 60% of the global market. Since September 2024, every export has required Beijing’s approval. An additional ban on exports to the US remains suspended through November 27; whether it will then come back into force is unclear. The United States, at any rate, must take action. In 2025, the world’s leading economy met 91% of its needs through imports, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

This is precisely where the opportunity lies for Antimony Resources. In 2021, the company was listed on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) as Big Red Mining, with a copper project in Ontario. Geologist Jim Atkinson, now CEO, was already on the board of directors at the time. The new name and focus on antimony followed in March 2025. Atkinson has practical experience with the metal. He previously worked for the Lake George Mine, for many years North America’s only antimony producer.

Antimony Resources’ exploration activities focus on the Bald Hill project in southern New Brunswick, which the company says is North America’s highest-grade deposit. The main zone is over 600 m long, at least 350 m deep and open in all directions. A deep-water port is only around 75 km away, and roads and power are available. A technical report identifies an exploration target of around 2.7 million tonnes with antimony grades of 3% to 4%. And that is not the limit.

Gold as a welcome extra

In September, the company reported 27.3% antimony over 0.3 m, along with gold of up to 3.66 g/t. October brought 4.36% over 13 m, including 21.45% antimony over 1.10 m. Drilling is now continuing with two rigs. Consultancy SRK is to prepare the first resource estimate. Atkinson intends to submit the application for a mining permit at the end of 2026, or early 2027 at the latest. Early engagement with authorities and Indigenous communities could shorten the path to that point, he emphasises.

Funding is available. Within three weeks, CAD 8 million flowed into the company’s coffers through capital increases. CAD 5 million came in through so-called flow-through shares at CAD 0.47. Buyers of such securities can claim tax relief on exploration costs in Canada and pay a premium for this. A strategic mining investor subscribed a further CAD 3 million at CAD 0.30 per share. If all warrants issued were exercised at CAD 0.50, a further CAD 2.5 million would be added.

However, the share price is still some way off that level. At CAD 0.27, the stock is trading even below the placing prices. At the height of the commodities euphoria, the shares briefly cost CAD 1.50. On German trading venues, they are currently quoted at around EUR 0.17. That is only just above the year’s low of EUR 0.15. The analysts at GBC Research reaffirmed their Buy rating a month ago and set a price target of CAD 2.52 by the end of 2027. This represents upside potential of more than 800%. The GBC experts see delineation of the deposit for the maiden resource estimate as the next milestone.

Stellantis: The dividend question

Antimony is also found in conventional lead-acid batteries and thus in millions of vehicles. However, one of the largest carmakers currently has other concerns. Stellantis, the parent group of brands such as Fiat, Jeep, Maserati, Peugeot and Opel, is in the midst of restructuring. Following write-downs running into billions, there will be no dividend for this year. In the third quarter, revenue of EUR 37.6 billion resulted in a bottom-line net loss of EUR 0.5 billion. The industrial business saw an outflow of EUR 4.0 billion.

Despite the extensive investment in the electric vehicle push – 29 new electric models are due to come to market by 2030 – CEO Antonio Filosa sees a turnaround within reach. “We reaffirm our forecast for 2026 and our expectation of positive industrial free cash flow in 2027”, he said at the end of October. This refers to cash inflows after deducting investments. Available liquidity in the industrial business most recently stood at EUR 42.7 billion. The share price responded to Filosa’s announcement with a small jump. Whether this is more than a technical reaction to over two years of decline remains to be seen. From a high of over EUR 27 in spring 2024, it fell to EUR 3.51 by October. The share currently costs EUR 3.80. If analysts are to be believed, the recovery potential is enormous. The highest price targets come from Merrill Lynch at EUR 10.30 and Barclays at EUR 10.00. That would represent more than 160% upside from today’s share price. Both targets are older, however, and come with Neutral ratings.

A report from Jefferies is more recent. Although the US investment bank lowered its target from EUR 9.50 to EUR 8.00 at the end of October, it maintained its Buy rating. That would still leave more than 100% upside potential. At the other end of the scale are RBC and Bernstein, with price targets of EUR 4.00. The average is EUR 6.14, around 60% above today’s share price. The key issue for Stellantis is likely to be the resumption of dividend payments. The group once stood out with yields above 5%. The share has lost that appeal, and even the low 2027 estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.3 does little to help. At present, the analyst consensus expects a high dividend of EUR 0.31 again from 2028, which would equate to a yield of more than 8%.

Three Major Gaps, Three Compelling Stories

The gaps to the price targets are large in all three cases, but the reasons differ. At Infineon, record figures and a clear outlook provide a good basis for reaching the targets. At Stellantis, much depends on the turnaround in cash flow and statements on future dividend policy. A strategy day for luxury brand Maserati on December 10 in Modena, Italy, could bring greater clarity. The gap is widest at Antimony Resources. Here, the first resource estimate, the mining permit and China’s next move regarding the export ban at the end of November will be decisive. This stock has the greatest potential, and the story is only just beginning.


Conflict of interest

Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a “Transaction”). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

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