Evotec Crashes to a 10-Year Low: Rebound Opportunity or a Falling Knife?
Evotec shares (WKN: 566480 | ISIN: DE0005664809 | Ticker: EVT) are in free fall following yet another profit warning. The shares are currently trading at around EUR 3.47, giving the company a market capitalization of only about EUR 614 million. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has lost around 37%; on a 52-week basis, the decline exceeds 52%. The downtrend, which has been in place for years, has thus intensified further. The trigger for the latest share price plunge was a downward revision of the company’s forecast, published on the evening of July 13. On the following trading day, the share plummeted, hitting a low of around EUR 3.18—its lowest level in over 10 years. Between July 13 and 15, the share price losses at times totaled nearly 30%.
Evotec expects revenue of approximately EUR 300.1 million and an adjusted operating result of minus EUR 42.7 million for the first half of 2026. However, the drastic revision of the full-year forecast weighs particularly heavily. Instead of revenue of EUR 700 to 780 million, the company now expects only EUR 570 to 610 million in 2026. Adjusted operating income is now expected to show a loss of between EUR 70 and 105 million. Previously, Evotec had projected a result ranging from EUR 0 to a positive EUR 40 million.
The real problem is the loss of confidence. About 40% of the revenue shortfall is attributable to deferred milestone payments from existing partnerships, which are now not expected to be recognized until 2027. Another 45% relates to new strategic partnerships that are being finalized later than planned. The lack of partnership and milestone revenue is particularly painful, as these typically have significantly higher margins than the traditional services business.
However, the outlook is not entirely devoid of positive signs. In the core business of the Discovery & Preclinical Development division, order intake and net sales rose by approximately 28% in the first half of the year. In addition, Evotec had liquidity of approximately EUR 465.6 million as of the end of June. The “Horizon” cost-cutting program is expected to generate annual savings of about EUR 75 million by the end of 2027. To achieve this, sites will be closed and up to 800 jobs cut worldwide. However, restructuring costs of approximately EUR 75 million were already incurred in the first quarter.
The Group’s ongoing strategic review is fueling further speculation. As part of this review, Evotec is examining, among other things, its investment portfolio, capital structure, and potential long-term ownership models. However, there are no concrete indications of a takeover at this time.
From a technical analysis perspective, the situation remains extremely challenging. The zone around EUR 3.20 serves as an important support level. An initial recovery above EUR 3.80 could push the stock toward EUR 4.00 to 4.50. To close the large price gap, however, it would need to rise to EUR 4.94—an increase of about 42%. The 200-day moving average is actually around EUR 5.30, which is about 55% above the current share price. Evotec will publish its full half-year report on August 13. Cash flow, new partnerships, actual cost savings, and the credibility of the new forecast will be decisive factors. Until then, the stock remains a highly speculative rebound play.
Volatus Aerospace: Dual-Use Production in Focus
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and a shift in defence architecture are driving forecasts for the global drone market. By 2034, this market is expected to grow to a significant volume of over USD 160 billion. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, the Canadian systems integrator Volatus Aerospace (WKN: A2JEQU | ISIN: CA92865M1023 | Ticker: ABB) is positioning itself with a rigorous dual-use strategy. These solutions can be used to meet the civilian requirements of critical infrastructure, but can also be seamlessly adapted to the needs of government security agencies.
The company’s presentation of advanced autonomy and intelligence solutions at the Farnborough International Airshow underscores its commitment to effectively decoupling Western supply chains from their dependence on Asian technology. By driving the next chapter of autonomous aviation in Canada, Volatus Aerospace is establishing itself as a reliable partner for national procurement programs within the security sector and industry.
At the operational level, management is consistently pursuing strategic development alliances. This was impressively demonstrated by the recently announced collaboration with Concordia University’s VOLT-AGE Research Program to optimize energy efficiency for unmanned aerial systems. Such technological advancements complement existing local production capacities at the Mirabel site, enhance networking within the security sector, and create a robust, domestic value chain. Furthermore, at MASS 2026 (Maritime & Arctic Security & Safety Conference), the NATO-certified service provider demonstrated its comprehensive, multi-application capabilities that seamlessly integrate operational scenarios across air, land, sea, and digital command structures. This seamless, standardized data exchange between different units often serves as the decisive unique selling point in government procurement contracts compared to traditional hardware manufacturers.
The sustainable financial scalability of the business model is based, among other things, on high-margin software components. This was already impressively demonstrated in the first quarter of 2026 with a margin of 35% achieved through the company’s high-performance in-house SaaS platform, SKYDRA. A key growth driver in this context is highly complex BVLOS (Beyond Visual Line of Sight) operations outside the pilot’s direct line of sight. These are fully planned from a data technology perspective and handled in compliance with regulatory requirements by the in-house-developed CANARY system.
The continuously growing defence budgets within the Western NATO alliance benefit the defence sector in general, but specifically benefit providers such as Volatus Aerospace that deliver hardware, highly specialized software, and operational training from a single source. For the capital market, investments in technologically innovative companies, particularly those involved in automated flight operations, are especially attractive, as they promise stable, long-term growth and recurring cash flows.
SAP Surges After Q2 Results: Strong Cloud Business Dispels AI Concerns
SAP shares (WKN: 716460 | ISIN: DE0007164600 | Ticker: SAP) reacted with a sharp share price jump to the Q2 results published on July 23, 2026, after the market closed. Last Friday, the stock gained more than 7% at times and closed the week above EUR 140. At the start of the week, the price rally continued, and the stock is now making a strong push toward EUR 150. With a market capitalization of approximately EUR 164 billion, SAP, just ahead of Allianz, depending on the timing of the quote, is the second-most valuable publicly traded German company behind Siemens.
SAP is also among the first of the ten most valuable publicly traded German companies to report its quarterly results. Deutsche Bank will follow on July 29. After that, Siemens Energy, Infineon, and DHL will report on August 5; Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, and Rheinmetall on August 6; and Allianz on August 7. SAP is thus providing an early barometer for the German earnings season.
Operationally, the software company reported a solid quarter. Total revenue rose 9% year-over-year to EUR 9.88 billion; on a currency-adjusted basis, growth was 11%. Cloud revenue remained the key growth driver, increasing by 22% to EUR 6.28 billion. The cloud ERP suite grew by 25% to EUR 5.53 billion. The current cloud order backlog increased by 27% to EUR 22.93 billion, or by 26% on a constant-currency basis. With this, SAP has, for the time being, allayed concerns that artificial intelligence could quickly put pressure on the traditional software subscription business. According to SAP, more than 90% of the 50 largest new contracts included an AI component.
Operating profit under IFRS rose by 8% to EUR 2.64 billion, while net income increased by 26% to EUR 2.21 billion. Earnings per share improved by 30% to EUR 1.89. Free cash flow reached EUR 3.00 billion, up 27% from the previous year. However, the operating margin fell from 27.2% to 26.8%. Revenue from traditional software licenses also plummeted by 32%—a sign of the ongoing shift to the cloud model.
For 2026, SAP confirmed its forecast for cloud revenue of EUR 25.8 to 26.2 billion and free cash flow of approximately EUR 10 billion. However, the forecast for adjusted operating profit was reduced from EUR 11.9 to 12.3 billion to EUR 11.8 to 12.2 billion. This is due to charges exceeding EUR 100 million resulting from the acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs, through which SAP aims to expand its data and AI platform.
From a technical analysis perspective, the situation remains tense despite the share price jump. Since August 2025, the stock has been in an overarching downtrend. Initial resistance lies at the 100-day moving average around EUR 147 and the EUR 150 mark. A sustained breakout above these levels could open the way toward EUR 160 to 170. The 200-day moving average stands at approximately EUR 175. A move above this level would significantly brighten the long-term chart picture. If, on the other hand, the stock fails again at EUR 150 or EUR 160, there is a risk of a prolonged consolidation or a continuation of the downtrend. The share price jump is therefore primarily a relief rally.
Evotec shares could become a promising speculative turnaround candidate, provided it shows initial signs of stabilization in the coming trading days. However, investors should wait for this to materialize and, if entering the position, set a stop-loss just below the recent lows.
As defence and infrastructure spending in NATO countries continues to rise, NATO-certified suppliers such as Volatus Aerospace are likely to be among the preferred contractors in government procurement processes.
For a sustainable turnaround, SAP must now prove that cloud growth is sustainable and that high AI spending will lead to rising revenue and profits starting in 2027.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.
Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.
The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.
The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.
Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. For full disclaimer information, please click here.