BYD: Between Domestic Market Pressure and Global Growth
The Chinese market for electric vehicles remains a tough environment. BYD recorded its eighth consecutive sales decline in April. This is a clear sign of the ongoing price war and saturated demand for cheaper models. The first quarter marked the third consecutive period of declining revenue, with a profit drop of over 55%. Analysts warn that pressure on margins and sales will persist. Yet it is precisely this consolidation of the domestic market that could separate the wheat from the chaff in the long run. Thanks to its size and cost structure, BYD is well-positioned to emerge stronger from the shakeout, while weaker competitors disappear.
International expansion provides the real reason for optimism. In April, exports reached a record high of around 135,000 vehicles, up 35%. BYD is pushing ahead with its European strategy. There are talks of plant takeovers from Stellantis or media reports about BYD’s interest in parts of the VW site in Dresden. The premium brand Denza is launching models starting at EUR 115,000 to compete with Audi and Porsche and is using the second-generation Blade Battery. The trade talks between the US and China in May did not benefit the Chinese automaker.
Technologically, BYD remains true to its battery heritage. The Blade Battery 2.0 with extreme fast charging could alleviate one of the biggest electric vehicle annoyances. It charges from 10% to 70% in 9 minutes. Vertical integration from the cell to the software provides cost advantages that are difficult to replicate in global competition. Sure, the coming quarters will remain volatile, as the domestic price war will not end overnight. But anyone analyzing BYD should not fixate on monthly figures. What matters is the combination of export share, technological leadership, and margin potential. That is exactly what distinguishes today’s manufacturer from tomorrow’s global player. The stock is currently trading at EUR 10.306.
dynaCERT – Outdated Diesel Vehicles Need an Upgrade
Anyone who believes the future belongs solely to electric mobility is overlooking the reality on the road. Millions of diesel trucks, excavators, and generators will continue to run for years to come, as replacement would be too expensive and infrastructure expansion too slow. This is exactly where the Canadian company dynaCERT comes in with its HydraGEN™ technology. A compact electrolysis unit generates both hydrogen and oxygen from distilled water, which is fed into the combustion process via the engine’s air intake system, thereby reducing fuel consumption by up to 10% through optimized combustion. No wonder logistics companies and mining firms are taking notice as diesel prices rise due to the war in Iran. The company is addressing an acute problem of the present, not a distant vision of the future.
dynaCERT has successfully moved beyond the pure development phase. With Kevin Unrath as the new CEO, the focus is now on operational implementation and sales. Recent pilot projects in Vietnam show that the market is ripe. Three logistics centers in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are already using the devices, and there are also collaborations with the Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT) and a state-owned oil company. The country, with over 3.5 million diesel vehicles, is becoming a testing ground for all of Southeast Asia and a blueprint for other emerging markets. dynaCERT positions itself as a pragmatic bridge-builder between the old and new energy worlds.
Things get exciting beyond the hardware business. dynaCERT has received Verra certification for its HydraLytica platform. This allows CO₂ savings to be precisely tracked and marketed as tradable certificates in the future. For fleet operators, this creates a second incentive: lower fuel costs plus additional revenue from emissions reductions. Analysts see the real scaling potential here. If the company succeeds in generating recurring revenue from the carbon business, it will fundamentally change the valuation of the entire company. Analysts at GBC Research see a price target of CAD 0.75. The stock is currently trading at around CAD 0.15.
Plug Power – Between Green Hydrogen and the Red
Hydrogen specialist Plug Power demonstrated in Q1 2026 that its turnaround is taking hold. Revenue rose by 22% to USD 163.5 million, but the real breakthrough is the margin. It improved from -55% to -13%, an increase of 42 percentage points. This is the result of hard work. Lower service costs, more efficient hydrogen logistics, and the internal “Project Quantum Leap” program contributed to the improvement. The electrolysis division grew by over 340%, driven by major projects in Europe. The foundation for profitability is in place.
Plug Power is still burning cash, but management has a clear plan to address this. Following a USD 150 million cash burn in the first quarter, asset sales totalling over USD 275 million are now on the horizon. As early as June, USD 142 million will flow in from a land transaction. Added to this is USD 39 million from tax credits from a joint venture. With USD 223 million in free cash flow plus quarterly releases of tied-up funds, the company sees itself well-positioned for 2026. A dilutive capital increase should not be on the horizon.
The second half of the year will be decisive. Customers, Amazon and Walmart are planning replacement cycles for approximately 20,000 fuel cell units. Management expects 60% of annual revenue to be generated in the last six months. The company’s self-imposed target is a positive operating result (EBITDA) in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Those who believe in the hydrogen story see a company here that, after years of mismanagement, finally seems to be turning the corner. The valuation is ambitious, but the turnaround roadmap is credible for the first time. Currently, a share costs USD 3.45.
The course has now been set for zero-emission mobility starting in 2026, but the three companies offer different risk-reward profiles. BYD is struggling with domestic price pressure, but its technological leadership in batteries and expansion into Europe position it as a long-term global player. dynaCERT addresses today’s diesel reality with retrofit solutions and, through CO₂ credits, taps into a scalable revenue model beyond hardware. Plug Power is dramatically reducing its losses and, with major customers like Amazon and Walmart, is nearing operational breakeven, but remains a turnaround candidate.
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