Barrick Mining: Fundamentals Take Hold After the Gold Sell-off
The recent downturn in the gold market has also affected Barrick Mining. But a closer look reveals a company that is finally delivering operationally on what has long been promised. In the first quarter, gold production came in at 719,000 ounces, well above the company’s own forecast of a maximum of 680,000 ounces. At the same time, total costs per ounce fell by 4% to USD 1,708. This combination of higher output and disciplined cost management is turning the high gold price into cash. Operating cash flow nearly doubled to USD 2.55 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.98 exceeded market expectations by about a quarter.
Barrick is generously distributing its newly gained financial flexibility. A USD 3 billion share buyback program and a quarterly dividend of USD 0.175 are just the tip of the iceberg. The new policy calls for distributing a total of half of the attributable free cash flow. This could mean a total dividend yield of just over 3% for this year. Crucial to this is the planned IPO of the North American division in 2026. This separation will create clarity. The stable, high-margin US assets will be valued independently in the future, while the rest of the world, with its political risks, stands apart. This stands to even out the risk profile and close a valuation gap.
In the long term, Barrick is betting on copper. The Lumwana expansion in Zambia is expected to double production to 240,000 tonnes per year by 2028. Added to this is the high-grade Fourmile project in Nevada, which could become a world-class mine in the early 2030s. However, the risk of the legal dispute with Newmont over Fourmile remains. Yet following the recent sell-off in the gold sector, the risks are likely already largely priced in. With precious metal prices remaining stable above USD 4,000, Barrick offers a compelling mix of operational leverage, shareholder returns, and hidden value from the planned spin-off. That is precisely what makes the share, currently trading at around USD 39.46, interesting right now.
North Arrow Minerals: Botswana’s Forgotten Gold Belt In Focus
Canadian explorer North Arrow Minerals is advancing the development of the Kraaipan Green Belt in southern Botswana. An experienced team, strategic partners in the background, and efficient technology speak for themselves. The project spans 724 km². Geologically, it lies in the same terrain as Harmony Gold’s Kalgold Mine, located 40 km south of North Arrow’s project. So-called Banded Iron Formation (BIF)-hosted gold deposits have been mined there for over 25 years. At North Arrow, a thin layer of Kalahari sand covers the overlying rock. This is precisely where the exploration strategy comes into play. Using high-resolution proprietary drone-based magnetic surveys and a mobile RC drill rig, the team is cost-effectively overcoming the overburden challenge.
The drilling speed and initial drill results are turning heads. The company is drilling up to 6 holes per day. That is a pace few explorers can match. Last year, a drill hole intersected 30 m of 1.56 g/t gold from surface. In addition, individual values exceed 7 g/t gold. Recent surface samples yielded up to 68.5 g/t. The ongoing 2026 campaign has a budget of USD 2.3 million. Twenty RC holes have already been completed on Target A along a 700 m strike length. The second round of drilling is currently underway on Targets AE and AF, where mineralization extends over 250 and 450 m, respectively. Lab results from the first round are expected in the second quarter.
The management team combines gold and Botswana experience. CEO Eira Thomas was involved in the discovery of the Diavik Mine, and COO Dr. John Armstrong worked underground at Red Lake and led the technical planning for the Karowe underground development at Lucara. He knows the country from over a decade of on-site experience. Strategic investors such as Ross Beaty (holding approximately 5%) and Rick Rule via Sprott are on board. Management holds approximately 14% of the 46.8 million outstanding shares. Fresh financing of CAD 4 million secures ongoing operations. The project structure is clean, and there are no onerous royalties. Those looking to position themselves early in an underexplored but geologically interesting gold belt will find a well-managed company here. The stock is currently trading at around CAD 0.27.
B2Gold: Operations Are Running Smoothly
The recent downturn in the gold market has led to price corrections for many producers, with B2Gold being particularly affected. However, a look at the operating figures paints a different picture. The first quarter of 2026 performed better than planned. Nearly 238,000 ounces were produced, with all mines exceeding their targets. Free cash flow jumped to USD 362 million, compared to a loss of USD 7 million in the prior year. Added to this are USD 479 million in cash and a fully repaid USD 800 million credit line. Anyone exiting now due to short-term volatility is overlooking the fact that the company has a solid foundation.
The key driver for the coming months is being largely overlooked. The Fekola supply obligation expires at the end of June. Until now, B2Gold has had to hand over more than 22,000 ounces per month for just under USD 2,200. For a long time, that was less than half the current market price. Starting in July, these revenues will flow entirely at the spot price. This fundamentally changes the cash flow dynamics. Assuming USD 4,000 per ounce and 265,000 ounces annually from this agreement, this results in an additional liquidity boost of nearly USD 500 million in the second half of the year. No wonder that operating cash flow is likely to pick up significantly from then on.
There are also areas of concern. The fire at the Goose processing plant in April cost the company about 10,000 ounces of production in the second quarter. Repairs are underway, and the annual forecast of 170,000–230,000 ounces for Goose remains unchanged. Mali remains a geopolitical uncertainty, as does the CEO transition from Clive Johnson to Mike Cinnamond in June. But the share price already reflects precisely these risks. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 6 based on 2027 estimates, B2Gold is trading well below the historical average for established gold producers. While other major producers are trading in the high double digits, there is a valuation gap here that should close. Currently, one share costs around USD 4.18.
The decline in the gold price is not a signal of crisis, but rather an opportunistic buying window. Barrick Mining is delivering record operating results and planning a potentially lucrative IPO of its North American division. North Arrow Minerals is rapidly advancing the discovery of a new gold belt in Botswana, supported by innovative exploration technology. B2Gold is set to benefit starting in July from the expiration of a loss-making supply obligation, which is expected to provide a significant cash flow boost. Those who take advantage of the current panic-driven weakness in mining stocks may be able to turn a temporary sell-off into a longer-term opportunity.
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