In this week’s Markets in Motion, Bruce Campbell zeroes in on a sharp spike in gold volatility, with the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) briefly pushing above 30 — a level rarely seen in recent history.
Silver volatility also surged past 100, highlighting significant short-term market turbulence across precious metals. While volatility has since eased, Bruce points to historical data suggesting that similar spikes have, in the past, preceded strong forward returns for both gold and silver over six- and twelve-month periods — though he cautions that the sample size is limited.
Interestingly, historical comparisons also show positive forward returns for the NASDAQ following similar gold volatility spikes, reinforcing the idea that these episodes may signal broader opportunity rather than systemic risk.
However, Bruce notes that the S&P 500 early warning indicator has turned negative, a development investors should monitor closely, even if no portfolio changes are triggered immediately.
At the same time, market leadership appears to be rotating. The S&P 500 equal-weight index (RSP) is accelerating while mega-cap names, including the Magnificent Seven, show signs of deceleration in earnings growth and relative performance.
Gold miners remain technically constructive, suggesting strength in the precious metals space even as broader market participation shifts.
Overall, the episode highlights a potential transition phase: elevated volatility in metals, weakening mega-cap momentum, and improving breadth across the broader market.
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