March markets shaped by oil volatility, metals and shifting sentiment
Markets in March have been driven by sharp moves in oil, continued volatility across commodities, and early warning signals beginning to appear in broader equity markets.
In this episode of Markets This Month, Anna Serin and Bruce Campbell break down what recent price action in energy means for investors, why mining equities are pulling back despite stable commodity prices, and how macro indicators and sector trends are shaping a more selective investment environment.
They also explore how geopolitical tensions, capital flows and seasonality could influence markets in the months ahead — and where opportunities may still be emerging across energy and resource sectors.
Full Transcript
The following transcript has been edited for clarity.
Anna:
Welcome to The Market This Month. I’m Anna Serin, Director of Listings Development with the Canadian Securities Exchange, and you’re joining us for the March 2026 edition.
I’m joined today by my co-host, Bruce Campbell of Stonecastle Investment Management, as we dive into what’s been driving Canadian and global markets this month.
We’ve seen significant moves in oil over the past few weeks. Prices have been volatile, and that’s rippling across the energy complex, impacting commodity fundamentals, capital spending plans, and which companies are positioned to outperform or fall behind as sentiment shifts.
We’ll break down what these moves mean for the commodity itself, as well as for producers, midstream players and service companies.
In metals, both precious and base, underlying commodity prices have remained relatively stable, but equity valuations have pulled back amid broader market volatility. That disconnect is creating both opportunity and risk, and later in the show, we’ll highlight where value might be emerging and where caution is warranted.
From a top-down perspective, several warning signals have started to flash. Macro indicators, investor positioning and sector breadth are all pointing to a more selective environment, tempering overall market enthusiasm.
Seasonality is also coming into focus. Certain periods historically favour commodities and specific sectors, so we’ll outline the key patterns to watch in the weeks ahead and how they could either amplify or counter current trends.
On the Canadian Securities Exchange this month, we welcome several new listings, including Beaumont Exploration Corp., North America Home Finance Inc., and Revolve Renewable Power Corp. We also saw notable financings, with Max Power completing a $20 million brokered placement and Sugar Copper raising $9.75 million through a private placement.
Join us as we dive deeper into these themes and more in the March edition of The Market This Month.
Bruce, thank you for joining us for the March 2026 edition. This month, we saw some big moves in oil. What does that signal for the commodity and energy stocks going forward?
Bruce:
Yeah, we have seen some really significant moves with oil, clearly based on everything that’s happened with Iran.
We had already started to see the price of the commodity moving up a little bit before that, likely due to anticipation of what was happening.
Oil made what would be a four standard deviation move above the 50-day moving average, which is very rare. We’ve only seen that a few times in history.
We looked at what that meant for both the commodity and oil stocks. The commodity itself tends to spike and then settle back down. Over one, three, six and even twelve months, returns are typically lower after that spike.
But what’s fascinating is that energy stocks often move differently. Even when oil prices come down, energy stocks have historically been higher over three, six and twelve months.
We had already started to see energy stocks move before the commodity spike, so this could represent a tailwind from multiple angles.
Anna:
I just want to remind our viewers — the price of oil is somewhat manufactured by OPEC, right?
Bruce:
Yes, oil prices are definitely influenced by OPEC. They set production limits based on supply and demand and try to maintain a certain price range.
With what’s happened around Iran, some production has been disrupted, and countries have discussed releasing oil from strategic reserves. But the scale is small compared to global demand.
The world consumes about 100 million barrels per day, and releasing a few million barrels doesn’t have a major impact.
OPEC, on the other hand, can adjust production by millions of barrels per day, which has a much larger effect on supply and price.
Anna:
There are lots of moving parts, but it’s interesting how energy stocks are reacting. Given the geopolitical backdrop, do you have any advice for investors looking to protect themselves or find opportunities?
Bruce:
It depends on the type of investor.
Value investors tend to see volatility as opportunity. Prices get pushed to extremes, and that creates chances to buy low and trim positions when prices rise.
For shorter-term or more conservative investors, caution is key. Volatility can lead to large intraday moves, so entry points become much more important.
If you’re a long-term investor, timing matters less. You can absorb some short-term volatility and still benefit over time.
Anna:
Let’s move to metals. Prices have held steady, but mining stocks have pulled back. Is that a normal reaction?
Bruce:
Yes, we’ve seen a lot of movement in mining stocks.
Gold has held relatively steady, while silver has been more volatile, moving between roughly 75 and 95 recently.
Despite that, many mining stocks are down 10 to 15 per cent or more from their highs, even though the underlying commodity has only declined slightly.
That’s normal. Markets dislike uncertainty.
Also, energy is a major cost for mining operations. When oil prices rise, it increases production costs, and markets begin to price that in.
We’ve also seen volatility indexes rise across oil, metals and bonds, which tends to amplify price movements.
Anna:
We’re just coming off PDAC, and we saw strong financings across the board. Do you think there’s still opportunity in the sector?
Bruce:
Absolutely.
Even if commodity prices stay within a relatively tight range, there will be projects that become profitable that weren’t before.
We’re also likely to see increased M&A activity. Larger companies often find it more efficient to acquire projects than to develop them from scratch.
And as companies get acquired, capital gets recycled into new opportunities.
Anna:
Your top-down dashboard is showing some warning signals. What’s starting to flash caution?
Bruce:
We’ve started to see early warning signals turn negative, particularly in U.S. large-cap markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
That doesn’t mean markets will immediately decline, but it does suggest we should be more cautious.
It indicates a shift in money flow — less capital entering the market, which can increase volatility.
We’ve raised some cash in our portfolios and are monitoring conditions closely. If indicators worsen, we may shift further toward a defensive stance.
Anna:
From a seasonality standpoint, what should investors be watching?
Bruce:
Seasonality plays a big role.
Markets tend to be strongest from fall through spring — roughly October to May or June.
Within that, there are shorter cycles. January is often strong, followed by a lull from mid-February to mid-March, then strength again into late spring.
We’re now entering that stronger period again, and the recent volatility aligns with what we’d expect seasonally.
But seasonality is more like climate than weather. It sets expectations, but short-term conditions can still vary.
Anna:
That’s a really helpful distinction. Looking ahead, what should investors be focused on?
Bruce:
Geopolitics remains key, particularly developments involving Iran.
We’re also approaching renegotiations around the U.S., Mexico and Canada trade agreement, which could introduce more volatility.
And we’ll be watching our dashboard indicators closely. If weakness continues, we’ll take a more defensive approach, especially as we head toward the seasonally weaker summer period.
Anna:
That’s certainly something to keep an eye on. It’s always great speaking with you. Thank you so much, Bruce.
Bruce:
Thanks so much.
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