Rheinmetall and Renk – The stock market clearly expected more
That was a real blow! Germany’s largest defence group, Rheinmetall, saw its share price plunge by over 17% at one point after presenting its Q3 figures. Although operating profit jumped by an impressive 62% to EUR 553 million, investors were deeply disappointed. The main trigger for the massive sell-off was the second cut to the revenue forecast for full-year 2026, now at around EUR 13.2 billion. This is primarily due to delays in major Bundeswehr defence projects, such as the multibillion-euro “Arminius” Boxer armoured wheeled vehicle project. As this major order is now not expected to be booked until 2027, the firmly scheduled revenue will be pushed back accordingly. Investors punished this lack of timing predictability mercilessly, sending shares tumbling to as low as EUR 818 at one point. Despite its strong operating margin of 17.5%, the group suffered a significant loss of confidence and market value in yesterday’s trading session. But for new investors confident in the future, the 2028 P/E ratio now stands at 11.8, according to analysts on the LSEG platform – the Düsseldorf-based company has not been this cheap since 2022!
We turn to Augsburg, as figures were released here too. Transmission manufacturer Renk also could not escape the defence sector’s negative pull and recorded substantial share price losses of over 5% at one point. Yet the business figures for the first 9 months looked extremely robust at first glance. Renk increased order intake by a hefty 33.6% to more than EUR 1.6 billion and drove its total order backlog to a new record high of EUR 7.6 billion. However, as revenue rose by only 5.8% over the same period, scepticism grew on the stock market about the short-term realisation of these sums. The drastic share price slide at industry leader Rheinmetall immediately spilt over to Renk and triggered a broader sector consolidation. Although analysts such as David Perry of J.P. Morgan stressed that Renk’s key figures were even slightly above market expectations, sector pressure ultimately weighed more heavily yesterday. With current share prices around EUR 34, the consensus for Renk on the LSEG platform is still EUR 59. The first expert revisions should arrive in the next few days. For Rheinmetall, the 12-month consensus had already fallen sharply recently. While price targets were still above EUR 2,400 at the turn of the year, this highly optimistic view was revised down to EUR 1,528 following three revenue warnings. Here too, the experts are likely still too high. It will be exciting to see what happens next in the sector!
SpaceX – Back to zero
Particular vigilance is called for with overheated high-tech stocks these days. The newly listed, future-focused company SpaceX is storming into the AI market and plans to build data centres with a capacity of up to 20 gigawatts. Driven by Elon Musk’s ambitious expansion of superintelligence infrastructure, the technology group, valued at around USD 1.5 trillion, is investing heavily in the latest server hardware and data centres. But despite the rapid pace of growth, caution remains advisable. This is because the extremely capital-intensive core business and lofty revenue targets make the company heavily dependent on external financing. SpaceX has thus raised around USD 65 billion from the market since June alone. Elon Musk also recently caused unrest in the supply chain when it emerged that future data centres would be equipped exclusively with Nvidia hardware. Competitor AMD will likely miss out on the next orders, which caused considerable unrest throughout the industry. Given the high expectations and growing regulatory risks, the potential for a correction in the highly valued stock market newcomer is substantial. In addition, some Democrats have announced that they intend to scrutinise the special political role of tech billionaires more closely in future. Direct influence on decisions in Washington will therefore probably diminish again. Yesterday, SpaceX shares plunged by a full USD 10 to USD 125. This puts them clearly below June’s IPO price again. Let’s see what happens over the next few days; the high valuation leaves room for further corrections.
Antimony Resources – Bald Hill takes shape strategically and financially
High-tech and defence bring us to critical metals. Antimony is very rare and a key strategic raw material for the defence industry, as it is used in hardened metal alloys, armour-piercing ammunition and special ignition systems. In addition, it improves the resistance of materials and is used in flame retardants for military vehicles, aircraft and electronic equipment. In the high-tech industry, the metal plays an important role in semiconductors, infrared sensors, night-vision devices and other optoelectronic components. Modern communications systems, battery technologies and electronic controls also benefit from antimony-containing materials. Increasing rearmament, the expansion of autonomous weapons systems, and growing semiconductor demand in particular make antimony a geopolitically sought-after raw material whose supply security increasingly helps determine industrial and military capabilities.
This draws investors’ attention to exploration company Antimony Resources. Things have gone somewhat quiet around the Canadians recently, but now a flurry of news is reaching us again. The company focuses on the exploration and development of North American antimony deposits with the long-term aim of establishing an independent Western source of supply for this important metal. Given China’s dominance and increasing export restrictions, pressure is growing on Western industrialised nations to establish their own raw material supply chains. The flagship Bald Hill project in New Brunswick is at the centre of this discussion, as provincial political support and the site’s strategic importance already give the project an added dimension beyond pure deposit exploration. Geologically, Bald Hill has much to offer. The Main Zone extends over at least 600 m in length and 350 m in depth, with average mineralised widths of 4 to 5 m and antimony grades of 3 to 4%. The exploration target is around 2.7 million tonnes, which remains conceptual at this stage and must not yet be equated with a confirmed mineral resource; it provides an interesting starting point for further development.
CEO James R. Atkinson in an interview with IIF presenter Lyndsay Malchuk on the latest developments in New Brunswick.
Two important financings have recently taken place. Following a flow-through placement of CAD 5 million at CAD 0.47 per share completed in October, Antimony Resources also filled the order book for a further capital raise of up to CAD 3 million. What matters here is less the absolute amount than the fact that a strategic investor from the mining sector subscribed for the entire second placement. At an issue price of CAD 0.30 per unit and a volume of up to 10 million units, this transaction signals targeted interest from the industry player in further developing Bald Hill. Together with the preceding financing, Antimony Resources now has a financing package totalling up to CAD 8 million, making it considerably easier to continue exploration and development work. The next decisive milestone remains the announced resource definition under the NI-43-101 standard, as only this will show the extent to which the geological potential can be converted into an economically significant deposit. GBC Research published a study in August with a price target of CAD 2.66. Following the current sector correction, this promises considerable potential for Antimony shares. Highly interesting!
Conclusion
The capital markets are currently highly political and weighed down by rising interest rates. Historic valuations in the AI, high-tech and chip sectors should therefore also be viewed critically. While 2026 is likely to go down in history as the year of the chip mega-hype, a corresponding correction has been visible for several days. The defence sector performed significantly worse in 2026 than in previous years. Analysts will certainly need to recalculate the fundamentals here. The critical metals megatrend should continue for several more years, and temporarily lower prices should offer new opportunities for investors willing to take risks.
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