This article is disseminated in partnership with Allied Critical Metals Inc. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice.
Tungsten’s strategic importance
Among critical metals, tungsten is one of the few recognized as such by Canada, the European Union (E.U.) and the United States, underscoring its significant roles across essential industries key to national security. Here’s a breakdown:
- Because it’s nearly as hard as a diamond, tungsten is a main component in industrial cutting machines, including for mining and construction, as well as in military equipment, including heat shields, missiles and armor-piercing ammunition.
- The metal is foundational to the aerospace industry thanks to its heat resistance, the highest among any metal at more than 3,000 degrees Celsius, contributing to the safety of satellites, aircraft and their underlying engines.
- Tungsten hexafluoride gas is central to semiconductor production, exposing the metal to booming demand in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
- Tungsten’s unmatched hardness and heat resistance are also driving the proliferation of clean energy technology, improving battery performance and durability in electric vehicles, solar systems and wind turbines, as well as establishing a pathway for advancements in nuclear reactors.
Tungsten’s broad use-cases grant it a more than US$5 billion global market on course to double over the next decade, driven by tailwinds in defense, AI and renewable energy, compounded by increasing pressure on governments to sidestep export restrictions in China, which controls ~85 per cent of tungsten supply, by securing more reliable partners. In response to Chinese restrictions, the U.S. Department of Defense, as of 2027, will ban the military from dealing in critical metals, including tungsten, that were mined, refined or produced in the communist nation.
This dynamic is placing the spotlight on miners in free markets, whose assets hold the potential to meaningfully undercut Chinese dominance and increase tungsten independence, while generating differentiated shareholder returns.
Almonty Industries: The benchmark
The blueprint for capitalizing on tungsten’s ex-China tailwind is supplied by Almonty Industries (TSX:AII), a producer and developer active in South Korea, Spain and Portugal, whose market capitalization has grown by more than 7 times year-over-year to C$1.21 billion thanks to a consistent development track record and increasing alignment with U.S. interests, including a partnership with government relations firm American Defense International and subsequent U.S. Congressional recognition as a strategic partner.
The company’s flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea houses one of the largest tungsten deposits globally, including ~36,000 tons probable, ~41,000 tons indicated and ~218,000 tons inferred, granting it an operational life expected to surpass 45 years. With the price of tungsten averaging US$494 per MTU on FastMarkets as of August 8 – 1 MTU equals about 10 kg – the deposit represents more than US$14.5 billion in the ground.
Slated for initial production in Q1 2026, and fully financed through offtake agreements with Plansee Group, Metal Tech and Tungsten Parts Wyoming, and SeAH Group, Sangdong is expected to increase capacity to 1.2 million tons of tungsten ore throughput per year as it ramps up to commercial production in 2027. This will be followed by in-house tungsten oxide refining in 2028 to supply the battery and semiconductor markets.
Almonty’s portfolio is complemented by two development projects in Spain, Valtreixal and Los Santos, each with established resources, as well as the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, one of the world’s longest producing tungsten mines at more than a century, which generates over ~58,000 MTUs of tungsten trioxide (WO3) per year with expansion to ~124,000 MTUs envisioned by 2027.
As detailed on slide 7 of the June 2025 investor deck, Almonty’s operations put the company on track to become the leading Western tungsten supplier by the end of 2027. Backed by a leadership team that has guided Panasqueira through its past decade in production, this trajectory suggests that significant value may still be on the table, despite the stock’s more than 360 per cent return year-over-year.
Allied Critical Metals: The challenger
By blazing the trail for micro-cap tungsten players, Almonty has set the foundation for competitors to follow its disciplined development, advancing robust projects in conflict-free countries, harvesting value from ex-China demand and potentially delivering exponential shareholder outcomes.
One such prospect, Allied Critical Metals (CSE:ACM), market capitalization C$38.54 million, has posted a 75 per cent stock return since listing in April 2025 thanks to increasing conviction in its transformational growth plan and leadership team proven across the mining life-cycle.
Allied Critical is in the midst of a 5,000-metre drilling program on its flagship Borralha project in Portugal, which produced 10,280 tons of wolframite concentrate from 1904-1985 averaging 66 per cent WO3, wolframite being the main tungsten ore mineral, while retaining a tungsten, tin, copper and silver resource estimated at more than US$600 million in the ground.
Results, supported by ongoing metallurgical optimization work, will inform an updated preliminary economic assessment slated for the fall, keen on improving project economics and expanding the current resource estimate of 10,618 tons of WO3 indicated and 14,103 tons WO3 inferred.
On track for near-term, low-cost production thanks to high grades and historical on-site infrastructure, Borralha positions Allied Critical for near-term cash flow and rapid scaling, aligning shareholders with the leading edge of tungsten demand.
The company’s value proposition only grows more asymmetric when we consider its Vila Verde project, a mere 45 km southeast of Borralha, whose inferred resource of 7.3 million tons with a cut-off of 0.05 per cent WO3 is headed towards pilot-scale production in 2026.
The pilot plant will process about 150,000 tons of mineralization per year, yielding about 250 tons of WO3, with room to expand processing to 300,000 tons contingent on market conditions. Management intends to procure project funding through non-dilutive sources.
Like Almonty, Allied Critical has not rested on its laurels, complementing its progress towards production and strategic E.U./NATO access with a letter of intent for the sale of tungsten concentrate to Global Tungsten & Powders, a Pennsylvania-based defense supplier, as well as an OTCQB listing and the founding of a U.S. subsidiary, increasing its attractiveness to potential U.S. clients.
Backed by C$5.1 million raised through a recently closed private placement, and the appointment of veteran geologist Vítor Arezes as Vice President of Exploration, and former Commanding General, U.S. Army Intelligence Center, Major General (Ret.) James A. “Spider” Marks, to the board of its U.S. subsidiary, it’s only reasonable to suppose that Allied Critical will continue to demonstrate why it’s the clear front-runner in the race to become Europe’s next major tungsten producer.
Side-by-side comparison
| Feature | Allied Critical Metals | Almonty Industries |
| Flagship Asset | Borralha (Portugal) | Sangdong (South Korea) |
| Production Start | Pilot-scale by 2026 | Commercial-scale in Q1 2026 |
| Offtake/Defense Tie-Ins | LOI with Global Tungsten & Powders | Offtake with Plansee, U.S. strategic partner |
| Recognition | E.U./NATO-aligned jurisdiction | U.S. Congressional Recognition |
| Asset Stage | Brownfield, drill-active | Near production |
| Scale (Est.) | ~250 tons/year WO₃ (pilot) | ~4,000 tons/year WO₃ |
| Market Focus | Europe / North America | Global / Defense / Technology |
Right-sizing expectations for future returns
While Almonty’s ascent to tungsten leadership has been exponential in terms of investor returns and production capacity, its future growth will now depend on its income statements, having already benefitted from the massive re-valuation that comes from thriving on the 15-year journey from exploration to production. This means that returns moving forward will likely be less volatile, capped by the cash the business is able to generate and the resources Almonty is able to add to its already globally relevant deposits.
That said, the company’s established path has room for more than one traveler, given China’s outsized tungsten market dominance and the lengthy mining life-cycle, making it a sellers’ market when it comes to high-quality resources, aligned with Western countries, of sufficient size to meaningfully strengthen domestic supply.
This is where near-term producers such as Allied Critical enter the picture, offering exposure to a potentially more momentous re-rating, given its micro capitalization (31 times smaller than Almonty) and earlier stage of development, as ongoing offtake discussions with refineries across the world expedite the path to production, initial revenue and margin enhancement towards profitability.
While both of these tungsten titans, the first-mover and the young gun, present strong data-driven cases for long-term value, the latter has yet to price this promise in, granting it greater near-term upside and making it the more attractive stock to invest in today.
Look out for part two of this three-part series, where we’ll examine Allied Critical Metals’ business plan in more detail, crystalizing its high-conviction role in Western tungsten independence.
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