A revaluation is currently underway in parts of the commodities sector. Tungsten has outperformed rare earths, silver, and gold in recent months, with prices nearly doubling since the beginning of 2026. This critical commodity is being discovered not only by a growing number of investors, but also by the media. Most recently, Handelsblatt and Fox Business have reported on it. Lewis Black is always part of the conversation. The CEO of Almonty Industries is currently a man in demand – by governments, companies, investors, and the media. On the one hand, Almonty is the only serious Western producer of this strategically important material used in defense, electronics, aerospace, and many other industries. On the other hand, Black presents market developments in a highly convincing manner. According to him, prices are unlikely to decline significantly.
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Tungsten price surges from below USD 400 to over USD 1,700
What a rally for tungsten. The metric ton unit (mtu) of this rare raw material is now trading at over USD 1,700 on the Rotterdam exchange. A year ago, the price was still well below USD 400. This exceptionally hard metal is critical for key industries such as defense, aerospace, and technology. However, Almonty’s (TSX:AII) (NASDAQ:ALM) CEO points out that only small quantities of tungsten are typically required in end products. As a result, the price surge is only marginally noticeable for end customers – but all the more significant for Almonty. While Almonty has been developing its Sangdong mine in South Korea over recent years, the price has been closer to USD 300 per mtu. Even at that level, the operation would have been profitable. Production at what is set to become the largest tungsten mine in the Western world is currently ramping up – and at precisely the right time. In an interview with Fox Business, Lewis Black announced that the company plans to provide an update on progress at the end of the first quarter. He sounded very optimistic in the interview.
“Manufacturers need tungsten, but prices are rising rapidly”
Just a few days after the interview with Fox Business in the US, it became clear how much Lewis Black is currently in demand worldwide. An article entitled “Manufacturers need tungsten, but prices are rising rapidly” appeared in the German Handelsblatt. In it, Lewis Black describes the turning point in the tungsten market. “After 20 years of artificially low prices due to subsidies, we are now seeing a reassessment of unit costs,” Black told the business newspaper. While the West was naive for many years and relied on stable supply chains, China established a monopoly-like position for many critical raw materials. Subsidized prices forced Western suppliers out of the market and mines had to close. This explains why the US is 100% dependent on imports for the strategically important raw material tungsten. Changing this will take time and money. Almonty also wants to support this effort. The company plans to bring a US deposit acquired in 2025 into production before the end of this year.
With mines in Portugal, South Korea, and soon also in the US, Almonty is becoming a strategically important company and is likely to be highly profitable at the same time. This is because the price of tungsten is likely to remain high. The reason for this is not speculative developments on the stock market, but rather the physical market. China, for example, has canceled subsidies for its tungsten producers. After decades in which efficiency played no role, this is hitting the industry there hard. Several mines have had to close. At the same time, demand is rising. One driver is global rearmament. But that is by no means the only one. Tungsten is also needed in data centers, among other things, and as we know, these are springing up like mushrooms due to the AI boom.
Analysts still too conservative
Analysts appear to be behind the curve on tungsten and Almonty. Their forecasts for Almonty’s revenue and profit development are often based on tungsten prices well below USD 1,000. On Tuesday, Couloir Capital published an update on Almonty. Due to the fundamental strength of the market, price expectations were adjusted, albeit only from USD 450/mtu to USD 800/mtu. Even at this still rather low price, analysts raised their price target from CAD 7.69 to CAD 19.30. There is clearly room for improvement. DA Davidson had already raised its price target for Almonty shares from USD 12 to USD 18. Further price target increases are likely to follow.
Almonty is in the midst of a (positive) perfect storm. The West urgently needs a reliable supply of the critical tungsten. At the same time, China, the former quasi-monopolist, is struggling with the transition to a free market. While global demand is rising, supply from China is falling. Almonty is ramping up production in South Korea, expanding its mine in Portugal, and bringing its mine in the US into production. And all this while prices are skyrocketing. Looking at the price chart, it is not easy to buy Almonty shares, but there are hardly any weak days, and when there are, buyers immediately jump in. Standing on the sidelines seems risky. The tungsten market is undergoing a turning point.
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